Important calendar events
The dollar was under pressure last week, and the index rose to 103.7. US treasury yields gained strength, with the US 10-year bond yield rising from 4.21% to 4.31%.
The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
The Fed’s latest monetary policy statement did not include an earlier mention that US inflation is moving towards the central bank’s 2% target. Instead, the report stated that price pressures remain elevated, which points to a prolonged pause in rate cuts.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a mildly hawkish message after the policy meeting, stating that the Fed’s approach will remain data-driven and stressed that the central bank needs to consider potential policy changes under Trump’s administration.
Market odds of rate cuts within the year are on the rise, putting pressure on the dollar and US treasury yields. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at this week’s policy meeting on the 19. Last week, Powell stated that there is no urgent need to cut interest rates, indicating a pause in rate hikes.
Fed rate cut expectations rose after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. Markets are currently pricing in three rate cuts in 2025, with the first rate cut in June, compared to just two rate cuts the week before. This week markets will focus on the Fed’s ‘dot plot’, which is summary of the central bank’s economic projections.
The Fed entered its blackout period last week ahead of the monetary policy meeting this coming week on the 19th. The blackout period prevents FOMC members from commenting on the central bank’s policy rate ahead of a policy meeting.
On the data front, Producer Price Index data on Thursday came in lower than anticipated, boosting the dollar, especially after the release of soft US inflation CPI data on Wednesday. US PPI remained unchanged in February, after rising by 0.4% in January and against expectations of 0.3% growth. PPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year in February, following a 3.7% increase in January and coming below market expectations of 3.3% rise. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, decreased by 0.1% in February against expectations of 0.3% growth, while January’s reading was revised upward to 0.5%. Annual core PPI rose by 3.4% in February, down from 3.8% in January.
US CPI data on Wednesday also showed that US inflation is cooling at a faster pace than anticipated. Headline inflation in the US rose by 2.8% year-on-year in February after rising by 3.0% in January against expectations of a 2.9% print. Monthly inflation rose by just 0.2% in February, after rising by 0.5% in January, against a 0.3% rise anticipated. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% in February, which was significantly lower than January’s reading of 0.4% and fell below expectations of 0.3%. Annual Core CPI rose by 3.1% in February, below the 3.2% estimate, down from 3.3% in January.
US labor data released last week were optimistic, providing support for the dollar. US Unemployment Claims released on Thursday dropped to 220K for the week ending March 8 from 22K the week before, against expectations of a 226K print. JOLTS job openings rose to 7.74M in January from 7.51M in December, exceeding market expectations of 7.65M.
Preliminary GDP data showed that the US economy expanded by 2.3%, following 3.1% expansion in the third quarter of 2024 and falling below market estimates of 2.7% growth. In addition, the US economy expanded by 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024 and by 1.4% in the first quarter.
Markets this week will continue to focus on Trump’s economic policies and trade tariffs, and Trump’s statements are likely to cause volatility in the price of the dollar. On Tuesday, the White House announced a global 25% tariff on global steel and aluminum imports to the US that would take effect on Wednesday. Moreover, Trump announced on his social media that he would impose a double tariff of 50% on aluminum and steel products from Canada. Trump backpedaled on his threats to impose double tariffs on Canada, however, just a few hours later. In return, Canada suspended 25% levies on electricity sent to certain northern US states.
US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Trump has threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners.
Trump’s tariffs may spark global trade wars and are causing turmoil in markets. Import taxes will raise the price of many products, fueling inflationary pressures. Other nations are likely to reciprocate with tariffs of their own, starting global trade wars, which may lead to economic deterioration and rising inflation in many countries.
Trump’s economic policies are raising concerns that the US economic growth will slow down. Many analysts are already expressing concerns that the US will enter recession. Trump tried to downplay recession risks in an interview with Fox News over the weekend. Trump carefully avoided the word recession, stating instead that the US economy is in a period of transition.
EUR/USD traded sideways last week, oscillating around the 1.088 level. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.028, while resistance may be encountered near 1.100.
The EUR/USD rate is expected to experience some volatility in the weeks to come as trade war risks rise. Last week, the White House announced a global 25% tariff on global steel and aluminum imports to the US. The EU was quick to retaliate, with tariffs on US imports to the EU. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU will impose counter tariffs on 26 billion euros worth of US goods. Tariffs will be imposed on a variety of US products, including beef, poultry, bourbon, peanut butter and jeans. Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU deeply regrets having to adopt this measure, as the tariffs will likely raise inflation and cost jobs throughout the globe.
Hopes of political stability in Germany boosted the Euro last week. Germany is the Eurozone’s leading economy and an official government has not yet been formed after the German Federal elections in February. It seems likely, however, that Germany’s conservatives led by prospective Chancellor Frederich Merz and the Social Democratic Party will form a coalition. The leaders of the two parties have agreed on a restructure of Germany’s debt that will widen the country’s borrowing limit, boost defense spending and economic growth. The plan has already been set in motion and was discussed by the German Parliament in a special session on Thursday. Merz initially struggled to convince policymakers of the necessity of his economic reform. However, he managed to secure an agreement with the Greens party on Friday, together with the support of his prospective coalition partners, the Social Democratic Party.
The ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its latest policy meeting, bringing its main refinancing rate down to 2.65% from 2.90%. The Monetary Policy Statement issued after the conclusion of the meeting included the ECB’s assessment that its monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive. This was interpreted by markets as a sign that the central bank is approaching a point of policy normalization and future ECB rate cut expectations dropped. The ECB also raised its inflation outlook for 2025, however, indicating that the central bank is prepared to deal with rising inflationary pressures.
In her speech after the policy meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that the latest rate cut was necessary to ensure economic stability in the Euro area. Lagarde also reiterated her former statement that the central bank’s policy will remain data dependent and warned that the ECB will need to stay vigilant in these uncertain times.
On the data front, German Balance of Trade data released on Monday, which represents the Difference in value between imported and exported goods, were disappointing. German Trade Balance dropped to 16.0B in January from 20.7B in December, against expectations of a 21.0B reading. German industrial production expanded by 2.0% in January, exceeding expectations of 1.6% growth and December’s 1.5% contraction.
Revised GDP data showed that the Eurozone economy expanded by 0.2% in the final quarter of 2024 after expanding by 0.3% in the second quarter, against original estimates of 0.1% growth. The economic outlook of the EU remains fragile as prolonged tightening has brought the Euro area economy to the brink of recession.
EU CPI Flash Estimate data released on Monday showed that Eurozone inflation remains above the ECB’s 2% target and may prevent the ECB from cutting interest rates further. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.4% year-on-year in February after rising by 2.5% in January, exceeding expectations of a 2.3% print. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, dropped to 2.6% in February from 2.7% in January but also came in higher than the 2.5% reading anticipated.
GBP/USD remained steady last week, hovering around the 1.293 level. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.304, while support may be found near 1.233.
The Sterling gained strength last week as the British government chose not to retaliate against the US on steel and aluminum imports. After the EU announced retaliatory tariffs against the US, the UK stands out by not reacting to Trump tariffs. The British government expressed disappointment on Wednesday over the announcement of 25% US tariffs on steel and aluminum but did not impose taxes on US imports to the UK.
BOE policymakers cut interest rates by 25 basis points in February and the Official Bank Rate was reduced from 4.75% to 4.5%. Seven out of nine MPC members voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, while surprisingly, the other two members were more dovish, voting for a 50bps rate cut.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has hinted at further rate cuts but has stressed, at the same time, that the BOE will need to decide on its policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis and has refused to commit to a timeline or magnitude of future rate cuts. Markets are currently pricing in over 50 bps of easing by the end of 2025. The BOE currently anticipates that the British economy will grow by 0.75% by the end of 2025 and inflation will rise from 2.5% to 3.7%.
This coming week, markets will focus on the BOE monetary policy meeting on the 20th. A rate cut this week is not expected and the BOE is expected to cut interest rates slowly this year. Markets will scrutinize BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech after the meeting for hints on the timing of future rate cuts.
On the data front, the British economy contracted unexpectedly by 0.1% in January after expanding by 0.4% in December, missing expectations of 0.1% growth. Preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the British economy expanded by 0.1% against estimates of 0.1% contraction and following economic stagnation in the third quarter of 2024.
RICS House Price Balance data released on Thursday, showed that Britain’s housing market had its slowest month in over a year in February. This index is an indicator of housing inflation and a low reading indicated reduced price pressures in the housing market.
Price pressures in the UK are rising, reducing the odds of a BOE rate cut in February and putting pressure on the Sterling. Headline inflation in the UK rose by 3.0% annually in January up from 2.5% in December, against expectations of a 2.8% print. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.7% year-on-year in January from 3.2% in December, which was in line with expectations.
USD/JPY edged lower on Thursday, dropping from 148.3 to 147.7. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support at 146.5. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance at 151.3.
Concerns that Japan will not escape from US tariffs put pressure on the Yen last week. US President Donald Trump announced heavy tariffs on certain products on Tuesday. Japan’s trade minister Yoji Muto had a meeting with representatives from the White House but stated that he did not receive a response that Japan would be exempt.
Final GDP data released on Tuesday for Japan were disappointing, putting pressure on the Yen. Final GDP data for the final quarter of 2024 showed that the Japanese economy expanded by only 0.6% against expectations of 0.7% growth. Final GDP data for the third quarter of 2024 showed that Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3%, down from 0.7% in the second quarter.
The BOJ raised its interest rate by 25 basis points in January, from 0.25% to 0.50%, its highest level since 2008. In addition, the BOJ adjusted its inflation projections upward, to reflect the depreciation of the yen and rising oil prices, hinting at more rate hikes down the road. Policymakers expect Japan’s inflation to rise to 2.4% in 2025, up from previous estimates of 1.9%, and above the central bank’s 2% target.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if Japan’s economy continues to improve and the BOJ 2% inflation target is reached. Ueda emphasized, however, that the timeline of future rate hikes will depend on economic and inflationary conditions. Markets currently anticipate that the BOJ will raise interest rates to a peak interest of 1.00% over the next two years.
Markets anticipate that the BOJ will raise interest rates at least one more time this year. The BOJ is expected to raise interest rates by approximately 75 basis points in the next two years, which will bring the central bank’s peak rate to 1.25%.
Market odds of a rate hike at the BOJ policy meeting this week on the 19th, however, are low and the next BOJ rate hike is not priced in before July. Market participants will focus mostly on Ueda’s speech after the meeting to pinpoint the timeline of the next rate hike with more accuracy.
Economic activity data released on Monday for Japan was disappointing, putting pressure on the Yen. Average Cash Earnings rose by just 2.8% in January, missing expectations of 3.2%, while December’s print was also revised downward to reflect 4.4% growth.
Inflation in Japan is on the rise, raising the odds of future rate hikes and providing support for the Yen. The headline Tokyo CPI inflation rose to 3.4% annually in January from 3.0% in December. National Core inflation in Japan rose by 3.2% year-on-year in January from 3.0% in December against expectations of a 3.1% print. In addition, BOJ Core CPI rose to 2.2% year-on-year in January from 1.9% in December.
Gold prices surged from $2,880 to $3,004 per ounce last week, their highest level in history. Gold prices pared some gains at the end of the week, settling close to the $2,990 per ounce level. If gold prices rise, they may encounter resistance at $3,004 per ounce, while if gold prices decline, support may be encountered near $2,830 per ounce.
Gold prices reached a new all-time high of $3,004 per ounce last week, on US tariff concerns and soft US inflation data. Uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s future policies and trade tariffs promotes a risk aversion sentiment. Concerns that Trump’s trade policies may ignite global trading wars are raising the appeal of safe haven assets, such as gold. Trump has threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners.
On Tuesday, the White House announced a global 25% tariff on global steel and aluminum imports to the US that would take effect on Wednesday. Moreover, Trump announced on his social media that he would impose a double tariff of 50% on aluminum and steel products from Canada. Trump backpedaled on his threats to impose double tariffs on Canada, however, just a few hours later.
Trump’s tariffs may spark global trade wars and are causing turmoil in markets. Trump’s tariffs are likely to raise global inflation and lower economic outlook, thus promoting a risk aversion sentiment that boosts safe haven assets.
Trump’s economic policies are raising concerns that the US economic growth will slow down. Many analysts are already expressing concerns that the US will enter recession. Trump tried to downplay recession risks in an interview with Fox News over the weekend. Trump carefully avoided the word recession, stating instead that the US economy is in a period of transition.
US Producer Price Index data on Thursday came in lower than anticipated, propelling gold prices to all-time highs. US PPI remained unchanged in February, after rising by 0.4% in January and against expectations of 0.3% growth. PPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year in February, following a 3.7% increase in January and coming below market expectations of 3.3% rise. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, decreased by 0.1% in February against expectations of 0.3% growth, while January’s reading was revised upward to 0.5%. Annual core PPI rose by 3.4% in February, down from 3.8% in January.
US CPI data on Wednesday also showed that US inflation is cooling at a faster pace than anticipated, driving gold prices up. Headline inflation in the US rose by 2.8% year-on-year in February after rising by 3.0% in January against expectations of a 2.9% print. Monthly inflation rose by just 0.2% in February, after rising by 0.5% in January, against a 0.3% rise anticipated. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% in February, which was significantly lower than January’s reading of 0.4% and fell below expectations of 0.3%. Annual Core CPI rose by 3.1% in February, below the 3.2% estimate, down from 3.3% in January.
Gold prices are supported by rising Fed rate cut expectations. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Market odds of rate cuts within the year are on the rise, putting pressure on US treasury yields and boosting gold prices. Fed rate cut expectations rose after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. Markets are currently pricing in three rate cuts in 2025, with the first rate cut in June, compared to just two rate cuts the week before.
Gold prices have been typically directed by the dollar’s movement, as the competing gold typically loses appeal as an investment when the dollar rises. The dollar was under pressure last week, and the index rose to 103.7. US treasury yields gained strength, with the US 10-year bond yield rising from 4.21% to 4.31%.
Oil prices gained strength last week and WTI price rose from $66.8 to $67.8 per barrel. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $65.2 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $71.2 per barrel.
US crude oil inventories released on Wednesday missed expectations, boosting oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration reported a weekly crude stockpile build of 1.4M barrels for the week to March 7, against expectations of a bigger build by 2.1M barrels and following a rise by 3.6M barrels the week before.
Reports of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine put pressure on oil prices last week. A US delegation has been sent to Moscow to discuss the terms of a ceasefire treaty between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, has warned that Russia is likely to reject the treaty and continue the war.
On Tuesday, the White House announced a global 25% tariff on global steel and aluminum imports to the US that would take effect on Wednesday. Moreover, US President Donald Trump announced on his social media that he would impose a double tariff of 50% on aluminum and steel products from Canada. Trump backpedaled on his threats to impose double tariffs on Canada, however, just a few hours later.
Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Trump has threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners.
Trump’s tariffs may spark global trade wars and are causing turmoil in markets. Trump has threatened to impose heavy tariffs on Canadian products, including energy products. The threat of tariffs on Canadian energy products, which are Canada’s main export to the US, are boosting oil prices.
US import taxes will raise the price of many products, fueling inflationary pressures. Other nations are likely to reciprocate with tariffs of their own, starting global trade wars, which may lead to economic deterioration and rising inflation in many countries.
Trump’s economic policies are raising concerns that the US economic growth will slow down. Many analysts are already expressing concerns that the US will enter recession. Trump tried to downplay recession risks in an interview with Fox News over the weekend. Trump carefully avoided the word recession, stating instead that the US economy is in a period of transition.
Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
Fed rate cut expectations rose after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. Markets are currently pricing in three rate cuts in 2025, with the first rate cut in June, compared to just two rate cuts the week before.
Oil prices dipped last week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced plans to raise oil output starting in April. The organization has been using voluntary oil production cuts among its members to limit oil production and keep oil prices high. Last week, however, the cartel announced that they would raise oil output by 2.2 million barrels a day starting from April, driving oil prices down.
Bitcoin price dropped sharply early last week then remained steady last week, trading just above the $82,000 level. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $76,400, while resistance may be encountered at $99,300.
Ethereum price edged lower last week, dropping from $2,050 to 1,890. If Ethereum price declines, it may encounter support near $1,760, while if it increases, it may encounter resistance near $2,840.
Bitcoin price registered a new all-time high of $109,135 in January but has since been under pressure by increased risk aversion sentiment. Expectations of a crypto-friendly US policy are providing support for crypto markets even as imminent global trade wars push crypto prices down. Bitcoin lost more than a quarter of its value since Trump’s inauguration, which marked its all-time high, and the crypto market capitalization decreased by almost a trillion in the past month.
Most major cryptocurrencies are under pressure due to concerns that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may start global trading wars. On Tuesday, the White House announced a global 25% tariff on global steel and aluminum imports to the US that would take effect on Wednesday. Moreover, Trump announced on his social media that he would impose a double tariff of 50% on aluminum and steel products from Canada. Trump backpedaled on his threats to impose double tariffs on Canada, however, just a few hours later. Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. The uncertainty over Trump’s future policies and trade tariffs is generating a risk aversion sentiment, putting pressure on crypto markets. Trump’s tariffs are likely to raise global inflation and lower economic outlook, thus promoting a risk aversion sentiment that puts pressure on crypto markets.
Trump’s economic policies are raising concerns that the US economic growth will slow down. Many analysts are already expressing concerns that the US will enter recession. Trump tried to downplay recession risks in an interview with Fox News over the weekend. Trump carefully avoided the word recession, stating instead that the US economy is in a period of transition.
Trump has announced the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve, stressing his determination to make the US the crypto capital of the world. The US reserve will be created with Bitcoin already owned by the federal government through seizures due to criminal activities, according to a statement by crypto Czar David Sacks. Fron now on, the US government will cease to sell Bitcoin and will stockpile it instead as a store of value. Bitcoin price, however, continued to retreat after Trump’s launch of a US Bitcoin reserve, as global economic concerns have lowered risk appetite.
Cryptocurrency prices are also affected by central banks’ interest rates. High interest rates stifle economic growth, putting pressure on crypto markets. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting, after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
Increased Fed rate cut expectations boosted crypto markets last week. Fed rate cut expectations rose after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. Markets are currently pricing in three rate cuts in 2025, with the first rate cut in June, compared to just two rate cuts the week before.
BTC/USD 1h Chart
ETH/USD 1h Chart
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