Weekly Outlook

US President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are negotiating a deal that would raise the government's debt limit, preventing the US from going into default.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell caused a stir in markets, as his statements indicated that the US Central Bank may pivot towards a more dovish direction.

The US Central Bank has signaled that its hawkish policy is coming to an end, as prolonged tightening is putting the economy at risk.

Stability has been gradually returning to the Banking sector, removing some of the incentives to invest in safe-haven currencies, such as the dollar.

The much-anticipated US inflation data are coming up this week, with CPI on the 12th expected to decrease to 5.2% year-on-year in March from 6.0% in February.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank may steer the Fed towards a less hawkish direction, in fear of contagion in the financial sector.

Fed rhetoric reinforced the notion that the US central bank may slow down the pace of rate hikes but a pause in the central bank’s tightening policy is not on the cards yet.

Core PCE data combined with CPI and PPI data released earlier this month indicate that the Fed has still a long way to go to rein in inflation.

January’s CPI and PPI inflation prints illustrate the danger of inflation becoming entrenched and may induce the Fed to rethink its recent dovish pivot.

Repeatedly hawkish Fed speak has begun to drive the message home that further rate rises should be expected and that interest rates will need to remain high for a long period.

The Federal Reserve finally decided to relax its monetary tightening, raising interest rates by only 25 basis points last week.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, dropped to 4.4% in December and may induce the Fed to pivot towards a more dovish direction in its policy meeting this week.

US inflation data fell below expectations driving the dollar down, as PPI declined by 0.5% in December, versus estimates of a 0.1% drop.

The soft inflation print put pressure on the dollar, as cooling price pressures may give the Fed some leeway towards scaling back its rate hikes.

Signs of cooling US inflation caused the dollar to plummet on decreased Fed rate hike expectations.

Reduced price pressures may give the US Federal Reserve some leeway towards scaling back its interest rate raises, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will ease its rate hikes in 2023.

Cooling price pressures may give the US Federal Reserve some leeway to scale back its interest rate increases in the following year.

Market expectations currently range between a 50-bps and a 25-bps interest rate increase this week, with odds in favor of a 25-bps rate hike.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered an unexpectedly dovish speech stating that he sees rate hikes slowing down as soon as December.

The minutes of latest FOMC minutes have revealed that there is no clear consensus among Fed members at the moment, leading to mixed signals for the markets.

Market expectations of future rate hikes were considerably trimmed after the CPI inflation report and were further diminished after Tuesday’s PPI inflation print.

US inflation data for October fell below projections, with annual CPI printing at 7.7% against 7.9% expected, indicating that US inflation is cooling faster than expected.

The US Federal Reserve voted to increase interest rates by 75 basis points last Wednesday, bringing its benchmark interest rate in a range of 3.75% to 4.0%.

All eyes are going to be on the Fed monetary policy meeting on Wednesday with the odds in favor of another rate hike of 75-bps, bringing the interest rate to 4.0%.

US Treasury yields soared, with the US 10-year bond yield climbing above 4.3%, its highest level since June 2008, and the two-year yield surging above 4.6%, its highest level since August 2007.

US inflation reached 8.2% on an annual basis in September putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue its policy of monetary tightening.

US employment data were optimistic, indicating healthy job growth, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will maintain its aggressively tight fiscal policy.

Hawkish Fed rhetoric propelled the dollar to fresh 20-year highs early last week on expectations of steep rate hikes, with the dollar index climbing to 114.7.

Fed Chair Jerome Powel stated that the Fed is determined to curb inflation, even to the expense of economic growth, raising expectations of future rate hikes.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest this week to combat persistently high inflation rates, with markets pricing in another 75 basis points rate hike.

As more major Central Banks are shifting toward a tighter monetary policy, the divergence between interest rates with the Fed becomes less apparent, putting pressure on the dollar.

Fed rhetoric remained firmly hawkish, with FOMC member Loretta Mester stating that she sees the Fed benchmark interest rate rising to 4% and no rate cuts through 2023.

In his much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed no signs of wavering in the battle against inflation.

FOMC meeting minutes released last week indicated that Fed members are still committed to raising interest rates, pointing to a steep rate hike in September and providing a major boost for the dollar.

US inflation data are likely to play a decisive role in the Fed’s rate hike in September, as the sudden drop in inflation may induce the Fed to hold back from an aggressive monetary tightening.

The dollar rallied last week, as stronger than expected economic activity and employment data towards the end of the week helped quell recession fears.

Markets are becoming more moderate in their expectations of a Fed rate hike, as slow economic activity indicates that the US economy may not be able to withstand aggressive tightening.

The dollar spiked last week, boosted by soaring US inflation rates, with the dollar index rising above 109.2 and setting a fresh 20-year high.

Robust financial and employment data show that the US economy is not at imminent risk of recession, increasing the chances of a steep rate hike in July. 

Recession fears are boosting the safe-haven dollar, outweighing concerns of US economic downturn spurred by weak economic data.

In his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed the importance of bringing US inflation down and admitted that recession was certainly a possibility.

Record high US inflation rates have forced the Fed to ramp up its efforts by performing its steeper rate hike since 1994 and bringing its benchmark interest rate to 1.75%.

The Fed is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 base points on Wednesday, continuing its policy of monetary tightening and gradual return to pre-pandemic rates.

The dollar has been retreating on a mix of weak economic data and unstable market sentiment, although hawkish Fed rhetoric supports the currency.

FOMC meeting minutes indicate that FOMC members are prepared for a series of rate hikes of 50 base points each, confirming that the Fed intends to move with a gradual but steady pace towards monetary policy normalization.

The USD, which has been trading into overbought territory, faced its worst week since January, weakened by unstable market sentiment and lack of support from Treasury yields.

Several FOMC Members have adopted a hawkish stance and openly support a 50 base point rate hike, increasing the probability that the voting in the next policy meeting will be in favor of such a rise.

Fed Chair Powell stated last week that the Fed is not considering a 75 bs rate hike for the next policy meeting, thwarting market expectations and driving the dollar down.

The Fed may move towards a policy of quantitative tightening at its meeting this Wednesday, by starting to trim its 9 trillion USD balance sheet.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seems to be in favor of an aggressive rate hike, stating that a 50 base point increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate is on the table for the Fed’s next policy meeting in May.

Inflation remains one of the biggest problems for the US economy, with CPI data showing that headline inflation rose to 8.5%, its highest rate since 1981, and PPI data marking their biggest increase in over a decade.

FOMC minutes showed that several Fed officials were in favor of a rate hike of 50 base points last month, increasing the chances of a 50 bp increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate in May.

The dollar was boosted by hawkish Fed rhetoric, increasing the odds of a 50 bp rate hike at the Central Bank’s next meeting, with markets anticipating total rate hikes of at least 175 base points within the year.

The 10-year US treasury yields rose to a two-year high of 2.5% last week, providing support for the dollar, as investors anticipate a more aggressively hawkish Fed policy.

Diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine last week have sparked hopes of a de-escalation of the conflict, although Russian attacks continue.

War continues raging in Ukraine for almost 20 days now, with heavy casualties including civilians and children.

Western allies announced that they would be blocking "a certain number of Russian banks" from access to the SWIFT banking system and impose restrictions on Russia’s Central Bank, that would effectively cut off Russian Banks from the international financing system and undermine the Russian Central Bank’s ability to support the collapsing Rubble.

Geopolitical tensions were re-ignited and investors turned towards safe-haven assets, with gold price climbing to $1,900 per ounce, while crypto markets were hit hard, with Bitcoin plummeting below the $40,000 key level.

The EU is building a partnership for energy security with the US and other Natural Gas suppliers, in an attempt to mitigate a potential energy crisis and shield the EU from energy shortages.

The EU relies on Russia for most of its natural gas and oil imports, as well as for wheat and other commodities, and a disruption in supply might result in a rise in prices and an increase in inflation rates for the Eurozone.

The dollar picked up momentum after the Federal Reserve released a more hawkish statement than anticipated, with the dollar index climbing to almost 97.5 points on Friday.

WTI price rose to a 7-year high of over $86 per barrel, oversupply concerns and tight oil inventories.

The past year saw an increase in the price of the dollar, as the pandemic started to recede and global economy was set on the path to recovery.

The yearly US CPI rate announced on Wednesday registered the biggest annual gain since 1982, but the USD sank even further, after US inflation rates rose but still came in line with expectations.