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Weekly Outlook

Weekly Market Outlook For December 4th To December 10th

Preliminary GDP showed that the US economy expanded by 5.2% in the third quarter of 2023 against expectations of a 5.0% growth.

Myrsini Giannouli 04 December 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For November 27th To December 3rd

FOMC meeting minutes emphasized that interest rates will likely remain in restrictive territory for some time.

Myrsini Giannouli 27 November 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For November 20th To November 26th

Market odds of another rate hike in December have dropped to zero, while markets are pricing in rate cuts as early as March.

Myrsini Giannouli 20 November 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For November 13th To November 19th

Powell hinted that policymakers are not confident that they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance to return inflation to the Fed’s 2.0% target.

Myrsini Giannouli 13 November 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For November 6th To November 12th

Markets were not convinced that the Fed intends to resume its tightening cycle, and odds of a rate hike in December have dropped to less than 5%.

Myrsini Giannouli 06 November 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For October 30th To November 5th

A pause in rate hikes this week has already been priced in and market participants are expected to focus mostly on the Fed’s forward guidance.

Myrsini Giannouli 30 October 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For October 16th To October 22nd

Market odds turned in favor of an end to rate hikes after several FOMC members hinted that the Fed has reached its rate ceiling.

Myrsini Giannouli 16 October 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For October 9th To October 15th

US inflation data on the 11th and the 12th are the most highly-anticipated fundamentals of the week, as the Fed’s future monetary policy will depend mainly on the US inflation outlook.

Myrsini Giannouli 09 October 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For October 2nd To October 8th

Core PCE Price Index data last week indicated that price pressures in the US are easing, increasing the odds of a pause in rate hikes in November.

Myrsini Giannouli 02 October 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For September 25th To October 1st

Particularly illuminating was the Fed’s dot plot, which illustrates the anticipated trajectory of borrowing costs and points to another rate hike within the year.

Myrsini Giannouli 25 September 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For September 18th To September 24th

Odds that the Fed will raise interest rates one more time this year are increasing, although most analysts predict that the Fed has already reached its rate ceiling.

Myrsini Giannouli 18 September 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For September 11th To September 17th

Markets are expecting a pause in rate hikes this month but market odds of another rate hike in November are increasing.

Myrsini Giannouli 11 September 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For September 4th To September 10th

Prolonged economic tightening has put considerable strain on the US economy, which expanded by only 2.1% in the 2nd quarter of 2023, against expectations of 2.4% growth.

Myrsini Giannouli 04 September 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For July 31st To August 6th

The Fed’s forward guidance gave the central bank flexibility towards adjusting its future monetary policy and adopting a data-dependent approach.

Myrsini Giannouli 31 July 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For July 24th To July 30th

If the Fed maintains a hawkish bias and points to more rate hikes up ahead, increased interest rate expectations may boost the dollar.

Myrsini Giannouli 24 July 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For July 17th To July 23rd

Even though US inflation slowed more than expected in June, dropping close to the Fed’s 2% goal, most analysts expect another 25-bp rate hike in July.

Myrsini Giannouli 17 July 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For July 3rd To July 9th

Powell hinted that consecutive rate hikes may be resumed, stressing that the majority of FOMC members are in favor of two more rate hikes this year.

Myrsini Giannouli 03 July 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For June 26th To July 2nd

Powell stated that a strong majority of FOMC members feel that interest rates should go up further and hinted at the possibility of two more rate hikes.

Myrsini Giannouli 26 June 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For June 12th To June 18th

There is growing speculation that, even though the Fed may not raise interest rates this week, that does not necessarily mean an end to its tightening cycle.

Myrsini Giannouli 12 June 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For May 29th To June 4th

US President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are negotiating a deal that would raise the government's debt limit, preventing the US from going into default.

Myrsini Giannouli 29 May 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For May 22nd To May 28th

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell caused a stir in markets, as his statements indicated that the US Central Bank may pivot towards a more dovish direction.

Myrsini Giannouli 22 May 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For May 10th To May 14th

The US Central Bank has signaled that its hawkish policy is coming to an end, as prolonged tightening is putting the economy at risk.

Myrsini Giannouli 08 May 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For April 24th To April 30th

Stability has been gradually returning to the Banking sector, removing some of the incentives to invest in safe-haven currencies, such as the dollar.

Myrsini Giannouli 24 April 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For April 10th To April 16th

The much-anticipated US inflation data are coming up this week, with CPI on the 12th expected to decrease to 5.2% year-on-year in March from 6.0% in February.

Myrsini Giannouli 10 April 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For March 13th To March 19th

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank may steer the Fed towards a less hawkish direction, in fear of contagion in the financial sector.

Myrsini Giannouli 13 March 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For March 6th To March 12th

Fed rhetoric reinforced the notion that the US central bank may slow down the pace of rate hikes but a pause in the central bank’s tightening policy is not on the cards yet.

Myrsini Giannouli 06 March 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For February 28th To March 5th

Core PCE data combined with CPI and PPI data released earlier this month indicate that the Fed has still a long way to go to rein in inflation.

Myrsini Giannouli 28 February 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For February 20th To February 26th

January’s CPI and PPI inflation prints illustrate the danger of inflation becoming entrenched and may induce the Fed to rethink its recent dovish pivot.

Myrsini Giannouli 20 February 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For February 13th To February 19th

Repeatedly hawkish Fed speak has begun to drive the message home that further rate rises should be expected and that interest rates will need to remain high for a long period.

Myrsini Giannouli 13 February 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For February 6th To February 12th

The Federal Reserve finally decided to relax its monetary tightening, raising interest rates by only 25 basis points last week.

Myrsini Giannouli 06 February 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For January 30th To February 5th

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, dropped to 4.4% in December and may induce the Fed to pivot towards a more dovish direction in its policy meeting this week.

Myrsini Giannouli 30 January 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For January 23rd To January 29th

US inflation data fell below expectations driving the dollar down, as PPI declined by 0.5% in December, versus estimates of a 0.1% drop.

Myrsini Giannouli 23 January 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For January 16th To January 22nd

The soft inflation print put pressure on the dollar, as cooling price pressures may give the Fed some leeway towards scaling back its rate hikes.

Myrsini Giannouli 16 January 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For January 9th To January 15th

Signs of cooling US inflation caused the dollar to plummet on decreased Fed rate hike expectations.

Myrsini Giannouli 09 January 2023
2023 Forex and Commodities Outlook

Reduced price pressures may give the US Federal Reserve some leeway towards scaling back its interest rate raises, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will ease its rate hikes in 2023.

Myrsini Giannouli 05 January 2023
Weekly Market Outlook For December 19th To December 25th

Cooling price pressures may give the US Federal Reserve some leeway to scale back its interest rate increases in the following year.

Myrsini Giannouli 19 December 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For December 12th To December 18th

Market expectations currently range between a 50-bps and a 25-bps interest rate increase this week, with odds in favor of a 25-bps rate hike.

Myrsini Giannouli 12 December 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For December 5th To December 11th

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered an unexpectedly dovish speech stating that he sees rate hikes slowing down as soon as December.

Myrsini Giannouli 06 December 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For November 28th To December 4th

The minutes of latest FOMC minutes have revealed that there is no clear consensus among Fed members at the moment, leading to mixed signals for the markets.

Myrsini Giannouli 28 November 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For November 21st To November 27th

Market expectations of future rate hikes were considerably trimmed after the CPI inflation report and were further diminished after Tuesday’s PPI inflation print.

Myrsini Giannouli 21 November 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For November 14th To November 20th

US inflation data for October fell below projections, with annual CPI printing at 7.7% against 7.9% expected, indicating that US inflation is cooling faster than expected.

Myrsini Giannouli 14 November 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For November 7th To November 13th

The US Federal Reserve voted to increase interest rates by 75 basis points last Wednesday, bringing its benchmark interest rate in a range of 3.75% to 4.0%.

Myrsini Giannouli 07 November 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For October 31st To November 6th

All eyes are going to be on the Fed monetary policy meeting on Wednesday with the odds in favor of another rate hike of 75-bps, bringing the interest rate to 4.0%.

Myrsini Giannouli 31 October 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For October 24th To October 30th

US Treasury yields soared, with the US 10-year bond yield climbing above 4.3%, its highest level since June 2008, and the two-year yield surging above 4.6%, its highest level since August 2007.

Myrsini Giannouli 24 October 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For October 17th To October 23rd

US inflation reached 8.2% on an annual basis in September putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue its policy of monetary tightening.

Myrsini Giannouli 17 October 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For October 10th To October 16th

US employment data were optimistic, indicating healthy job growth, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will maintain its aggressively tight fiscal policy.

Myrsini Giannouli 10 October 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For October 3rd To October 9th

Hawkish Fed rhetoric propelled the dollar to fresh 20-year highs early last week on expectations of steep rate hikes, with the dollar index climbing to 114.7.

Myrsini Giannouli 03 October 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For September 26th To October 2nd

Fed Chair Jerome Powel stated that the Fed is determined to curb inflation, even to the expense of economic growth, raising expectations of future rate hikes.

Myrsini Giannouli 26 September 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For September 19th To September 25th

The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest this week to combat persistently high inflation rates, with markets pricing in another 75 basis points rate hike.

Myrsini Giannouli 19 September 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For September 12th To September 18th

As more major Central Banks are shifting toward a tighter monetary policy, the divergence between interest rates with the Fed becomes less apparent, putting pressure on the dollar.

Myrsini Giannouli 12 September 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For September 5th To September 11th

Fed rhetoric remained firmly hawkish, with FOMC member Loretta Mester stating that she sees the Fed benchmark interest rate rising to 4% and no rate cuts through 2023.

Myrsini Giannouli 05 September 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For August 29th To September 4th

In his much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed no signs of wavering in the battle against inflation.

Myrsini Giannouli 29 August 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For August 22nd To August 28th

FOMC meeting minutes released last week indicated that Fed members are still committed to raising interest rates, pointing to a steep rate hike in September and providing a major boost for the dollar.

Myrsini Giannouli 22 August 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For August 15th To August 21st

US inflation data are likely to play a decisive role in the Fed’s rate hike in September, as the sudden drop in inflation may induce the Fed to hold back from an aggressive monetary tightening.

Myrsini Giannouli 16 August 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For August 8th To August 14th

The dollar rallied last week, as stronger than expected economic activity and employment data towards the end of the week helped quell recession fears.

Myrsini Giannouli 10 August 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For July 25th To July 31st

Markets are becoming more moderate in their expectations of a Fed rate hike, as slow economic activity indicates that the US economy may not be able to withstand aggressive tightening.

Myrsini Giannouli 25 July 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For July 18th To July 24th

The dollar spiked last week, boosted by soaring US inflation rates, with the dollar index rising above 109.2 and setting a fresh 20-year high.

Myrsini Giannouli 18 July 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For July 11th To July 15th

Robust financial and employment data show that the US economy is not at imminent risk of recession, increasing the chances of a steep rate hike in July. 

Myrsini Giannouli 11 July 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For July 4th To July 10th

Recession fears are boosting the safe-haven dollar, outweighing concerns of US economic downturn spurred by weak economic data.

Myrsini Giannouli 04 July 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For June 27th To July 3rd

In his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed the importance of bringing US inflation down and admitted that recession was certainly a possibility.

Myrsini Giannouli 27 June 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For June 20th To June 26th

Record high US inflation rates have forced the Fed to ramp up its efforts by performing its steeper rate hike since 1994 and bringing its benchmark interest rate to 1.75%.

Myrsini Giannouli 20 June 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For June 13th To June 19th

The Fed is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 base points on Wednesday, continuing its policy of monetary tightening and gradual return to pre-pandemic rates.

Myrsini Giannouli 14 June 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For June 6th To June 12th

The dollar has been retreating on a mix of weak economic data and unstable market sentiment, although hawkish Fed rhetoric supports the currency.

Myrsini Giannouli 06 June 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For May 30th To June 5th

FOMC meeting minutes indicate that FOMC members are prepared for a series of rate hikes of 50 base points each, confirming that the Fed intends to move with a gradual but steady pace towards monetary policy normalization.

Myrsini Giannouli 31 May 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For May 23rd To May 29th

The USD, which has been trading into overbought territory, faced its worst week since January, weakened by unstable market sentiment and lack of support from Treasury yields.

Myrsini Giannouli 23 May 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For May 16th To May 22nd

Several FOMC Members have adopted a hawkish stance and openly support a 50 base point rate hike, increasing the probability that the voting in the next policy meeting will be in favor of such a rise.

Myrsini Giannouli 16 May 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For May 9th To May 15th

Fed Chair Powell stated last week that the Fed is not considering a 75 bs rate hike for the next policy meeting, thwarting market expectations and driving the dollar down.

Myrsini Giannouli 09 May 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For May 2nd To May 8th

The Fed may move towards a policy of quantitative tightening at its meeting this Wednesday, by starting to trim its 9 trillion USD balance sheet.

Myrsini Giannouli 03 May 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For April 25th To April 29th

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seems to be in favor of an aggressive rate hike, stating that a 50 base point increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate is on the table for the Fed’s next policy meeting in May.

Myrsini Giannouli 26 April 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For April 18th To April 24th

Inflation remains one of the biggest problems for the US economy, with CPI data showing that headline inflation rose to 8.5%, its highest rate since 1981, and PPI data marking their biggest increase in over a decade.

Myrsini Giannouli 18 April 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For April 11th To April 17th

FOMC minutes showed that several Fed officials were in favor of a rate hike of 50 base points last month, increasing the chances of a 50 bp increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate in May.

Myrsini Giannouli 11 April 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For April 4th To April 10th

The dollar was boosted by hawkish Fed rhetoric, increasing the odds of a 50 bp rate hike at the Central Bank’s next meeting, with markets anticipating total rate hikes of at least 175 base points within the year.

Myrsini Giannouli 04 April 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For March 28th To April 3rd

The 10-year US treasury yields rose to a two-year high of 2.5% last week, providing support for the dollar, as investors anticipate a more aggressively hawkish Fed policy.

Myrsini Giannouli 28 March 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For March 21st to March 27th

Diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine last week have sparked hopes of a de-escalation of the conflict, although Russian attacks continue.

Myrsini Giannouli 21 March 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For March 14th to March 20th

War continues raging in Ukraine for almost 20 days now, with heavy casualties including civilians and children.

Myrsini Giannouli 14 March 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For February 28th to March 4th

Western allies announced that they would be blocking "a certain number of Russian banks" from access to the SWIFT banking system and impose restrictions on Russia’s Central Bank, that would effectively cut off Russian Banks from the international financing system and undermine the Russian Central Bank’s ability to support the collapsing Rubble.

Myrsini Giannouli 28 February 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For February 21st to 27th

Geopolitical tensions were re-ignited and investors turned towards safe-haven assets, with gold price climbing to $1,900 per ounce, while crypto markets were hit hard, with Bitcoin plummeting below the $40,000 key level.

Myrsini Giannouli 21 February 2022
Weekly Market Outlook For February 14th to 20th

The EU is building a partnership for energy security with the US and other Natural Gas suppliers, in an attempt to mitigate a potential energy crisis and shield the EU from energy shortages.

Myrsini Giannouli 14 February 2022
Weekly Market Outlook for February 7th to 13th

The EU relies on Russia for most of its natural gas and oil imports, as well as for wheat and other commodities, and a disruption in supply might result in a rise in prices and an increase in inflation rates for the Eurozone.

Myrsini Giannouli 07 February 2022
Weekly Market Outlook for January 31st to February 6th

The dollar picked up momentum after the Federal Reserve released a more hawkish statement than anticipated, with the dollar index climbing to almost 97.5 points on Friday.

Myrsini Giannouli 31 January 2022
Weekly Market Outlook for January 23rd to 30th

WTI price rose to a 7-year high of over $86 per barrel, oversupply concerns and tight oil inventories.

Myrsini Giannouli 24 January 2022
Weekly Market Outlook for January 9th to 15th

The past year saw an increase in the price of the dollar, as the pandemic started to recede and global economy was set on the path to recovery.

Myrsini Giannouli 10 January 2022
Weekly Market Outlook for January 16th to 22nd

The yearly US CPI rate announced on Wednesday registered the biggest annual gain since 1982, but the USD sank even further, after US inflation rates rose but still came in line with expectations.

Myrsini Giannouli 17 January 2022
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