Important calendar events
The dollar gained strength last week, and the dollar index rose from 96.0 to 98.0. Treasury yields surged, boosting the dollar, with the US 10-year bond yield rising from 4.22% to 4.35%.
The dollar rallied last week, recovering from a multi-year low, on strong US labor data, tariff threats, and reduced Fed rate cut expectations.
Last week, US President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions by announcing a 35% tariff on Canadian exports effective August 1 and hinted at similar measures against Mexico, the EU, Brazil, and Sri Lanka. Trump’s threatened reciprocal tariffs have received yet another extension from July 9 to August 1, however, providing time for negotiations. Continued tariff threats are causing uncertainty in markets, boosting the US dollar and Treasury yields.
At the same time, Trump has renewed his attack on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding immediate rate cuts. Both the Fed and markets, however, have largely ignored Trump’s threats, and rate cut expectations did not rise.
The dollar gained strength following the release of robust US initial jobless claims data on Thursday. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 227K in the week ending July 5, lower than the anticipated 236K. This unexpected decline suggests a resilient labor market, boosting the dollar.
The Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in June. Fed Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference held hawkish undertones, hinting that policymakers remain cautious and are willing to wait before cutting interest rates again.
The June FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers were increasingly split: while some policymakers acknowledged tariffs as a source of persistent upside inflationary pressure, others signaled openness to rate cuts should core inflation and employment soften.
Fed rate‑cut expectations were dialed back after the release of the FOMC minutes, keeping odds of a July rate cut close to zero. Markets are currently pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, most likely in September and December.
Final US GDP for the first quarter of the year came in lower than expected, showing a 0.5% contraction, down from initial estimates of 0.2%. Concerns that the US economy may be entering recession put pressure on the dollar last week.
US headline inflation eased to 2.4% Year-on-Year in May, missing forecasts of 2.5%. Monthly CPI rose by just 0.1% against 0.2% expected. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.8% annually, missing estimates of 2.9%. Monthly core CPI rose by 0.1%, far softer than the 0.3% forecast.
This coming week, important US economic and inflation indicators may cause volatility in the price of the dollar.
EUR/USD moved downward last week, dropping from 1.178 to 1.168. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.137, while resistance may be encountered near 1.183.
EUR/USD drifted lower last week as the dollar rallied, and trade tensions took center stage.
US President Donald Trump announced that the deadline for reciprocal tariffs would be pushed back from July 9 to August 1. The Eurozone gained some reprieve, but as the tariff saga continues, markets remain in turmoil. The US announced a 35% tariff on Canadian exports and threatened the EU with similar measures. Concerns about trade disruptions impacting European exports rose, putting pressure on the Euro.
The ECB delivered another rate cut at its June meeting, lowering its main refinancing rate for the eighth consecutive time. ECB policymakers reduced the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent approach moving forward. ECB policymakers have expressed a cautious approach regarding future rate cuts and are moving towards policy normalization.
Market odds of another rate cut in July remain low, with consensus leaning toward a final 25 bp rate cut in September.
The EU June CPI flash estimate came in at 2.0% year-on-year, which was in line with expectations but was above the previous print of 1.9%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.3% annually in June as forecasted. Sticky inflationary pressures reinforce the ECB's cautious stance, trimming expectations for further rate cuts.
Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2025 was revised upward to reflect 0.6% expansion, up from 0.3% previously, beating the 0.4% consensus. The upward revision highlights resilience amid global trade headwinds.
GBP/USD remained bearish last week, dipping from 1.365 to 1.348. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.378, while support may be found near 1.337.
Last week, the Sterling faced downward pressure due to a combination of trade uncertainties and mixed economic signals. Although the UK and the US moved closer to a trade deal on key exports, some unresolved issues, especially around steel and aluminum, persisted, raising market concerns.
Bank of England policymakers decided to hold rate cuts in a closely split vote in June. MPC members voted to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%, with the vote split 6–3 in favor of holding rate cuts.
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s post-meeting speech was slightly dovish, hinting at a gradual, data‑driven easing path, but cautioning that this isn’t a signal for an immediate rate cut. Bailey advocated for a slow and measured easing, highlighting labor market softness and rising energy risks tied to geopolitical instability.
UK GDP data released on Friday indicated a contraction of 0.1% in May, following a 0.3% decline in April, against expectations of 0.1% growth. This marked the second consecutive month of economic contraction, raising concerns about the UK's economic resilience. The downturn was primarily attributed to declines in the production and construction sectors, which outweighed modest growth in services.
BOE rate cut expectations within the year rose after the release of weak GDP data, as policymakers may have to provide stimulus to the frail British economy. Odds of a rate cut in August went up above 75% and markets are currently pricing in 2-3 rate cuts by year-end.
British headline inflation surged to 3.5% year-on-year in April, up from 2.6% in March and surpassing forecasts of 3.3%. The hotter-than-anticipated inflation data have dampened hopes for rate cuts shortly, with markets currently pricing in only one additional cut in 2025.
USD/JPY remained in an uptrend last week, rising from 144.4 to 147.2. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support at 142.5. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance at 148.0.
USD/JPY gained strength last week as escalating US–Japan trade tensions put pressure on the Yen. US President Trump announced 25% tariffs on Japanese imports, set for August 1, unless a deal is reached. Talks are ongoing, but the pressure is raising concerns about Japan’s export-based economy, weakening the Yen.
The widening policy divergence between the Fed and the BOJ also weighed on the Yen. The Fed's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates is boosting the dollar, while the BOJ's dovish stance is keeping Japanese yields low, widening the yield differential between the two currencies.
The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.5% in June and confirmed a slowdown in its bond-buying taper beyond the fiscal year 2026. BOJ policymakers unanimously chose to slow the tapering of government bond purchases, cutting the quarterly pace by half starting in April 2026. This effectively signals a more gradual exit from the stimulus.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s commentary struck a cautious tone, yet with growing emphasis towards Japan’s inflation. Ueda emphasized that future rate moves would be data-dependent and hinted at a readiness to raise interest rates should inflation continue to go up.
National core CPI came in at 3.7% Year on Year in May, surpassing expectations of 3.6% and marking the highest pace since January 2023. On Friday, Tokyo’s core CPI came in at 3.1% year-on-year in June, decelerating from 3.6% in May and missing estimates of 3.3%.
Japan's economy remained stagnant in the first quarter of 2025, exceeding the anticipated 0.2% decline. On an annualized basis, GDP shrank by 0.2%, compared to -0.7% in the previous reading. The BOJ may delay interest rate hikes further to support the country’s weakening economy, especially if trade tensions rise.
Gold prices gained strength last week, rising above $3,350 per ounce. If gold prices rise, they may encounter resistance at $3,450 per ounce, while if gold prices decline, support may be encountered near $3,244 per ounce.
Gold prices were volatile last week, largely driven by uncertainty around US trade tariffs. US President Trump’s threatened reciprocal tariffs received yet another extension from July 9 to August 1 early last week. Markets breathed more easily after the deadline extension was announced, limiting gold’s appeal.
Trade tariff concerns were re-ignited after US President Trump hit certain countries with steep tariffs (around 35%) later in the week. The uncertainty around US trade tariffs boosted the safe-haven gold even as rising Treasury yields and a firmer dollar capped gains.
Gold prices have typically been directed by the dollar’s movement, as the competing dollar typically loses appeal as an investment when the dollar rises. The dollar rallied last week, and the dollar index rose from 96.0 to 98.0. U.S. Treasury yields gained strength, boosting the dollar, with the US 10-year bond yield rising from 4.22% to 4.35%.
Trump has renewed his attack on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding immediate rate cuts. Both the Fed and markets, however, have largely ignored Trump’s threats, and rate cut expectations did not rise.
Gold prices are supported by rising Fed rate cut expectations. The Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in June, as expected. The dollar rallied post-meeting as markets digested the Fed’s June decision and dot‑plot update.
Fed Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference held hawkish undertones, hinting that policymakers remain cautious and are willing to wait before cutting interest rates again.
The June FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers were increasingly split: while some policymakers acknowledged tariffs as a source of persistent upside inflationary pressure, others signaled openness to rate cuts should core inflation and employment soften.
Fed rate-cut expectations were dialed back after the release of the FOMC minutes, keeping odds of a July rate cut close to zero. Markets are currently pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, most likely in September and December.
Oil prices edged higher last week, and WTI prices rose above the $68.0 per barrel mark. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $63.2 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $78.4 per barrel.
Oil prices were largely driven by inventory and production reports last week. Oil prices were caught in a tug-of-war, as reduced supply outlook boosted prices, while rising inventories capped oil’s gains.
The US Energy Information Administration announced on Wednesday a surprise crude stockpile build of 7.1M barrels in the week ending July 4, far above the 1.7M expected draw, signaling weakening demand and pressuring oil prices.
The EIA, however, revised its forecast for US crude production for the year downward to 13.37M barrels per day, from a prior estimate of 13.42M.
Meanwhile, signs of robust summer demand, especially US travel, kept oil prices climbing.
OPEC+ has raised its oil production for August by 548,000 bpd, well above the prior 411,000 bpd. This supply boost signals the cartel’s intent to allow oil prices to ease amid growing concerns over weakening global demand and trade uncertainties.
Oil prices are kept in check by high central bank interest rates. The Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in June, as expected. The dollar rallied post-meeting as markets digested the Fed’s June decision and dot‑plot update.
Fed Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference held hawkish undertones, hinting that policymakers remain cautious and are willing to wait before cutting interest rates again.
The June FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers were increasingly split: while some policymakers acknowledged tariffs as a source of persistent upside inflationary pressure, others signaled openness to rate cuts should core inflation and employment soften.
Fed rate-cut expectations were dialed back after the release of the FOMC minutes, keeping odds of a July rate cut close to zero. Markets are currently pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, most likely in September and December.
The US House is launching "Crypto Week", where lawmakers will advance crypto-friendly legislation, such as the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act.
Bitcoin experienced a meteoric rise last week, hitting fresh all-time highs every day and touching the $119,000 mark over the weekend. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $98,000, while resistance may be encountered at the psychological level of $120,000.
Ethereum price also surged last week, testing the $3,000 level resistance throughout the weekend. If Ethe thereum price declines, it may encounter support near $2,100, while if it increases, it may encounter resistance near $3,000.
Bitcoin climbed to a fresh record high near $119,000 last week, driven by robust institutional demand and expectations of favorable regulatory measures.
Renewed tariff threats from the US raised fears of inflation and currency volatility. Investors are viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and dollar volatility, fueling its rally.
Strong institutional inflows of spot Bitcoin ETFs of over $1 billion per day supported the Bitcoin price. The cryptocurrency's market capitalization has now surpassed $2.3 trillion.
The US House is launching "Crypto Week" this coming week, where lawmakers will advance crypto-friendly legislation, such as the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act. These regulatory developments aim at making the US the “crypto capital of the world,” as President Trump has promised.
Cryptocurrency prices are affected by central banks’ interest rates. The Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in June, as expected. The dollar rallied post-meeting as markets digested the Fed’s June decision and dot‑plot update.
Fed Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference held hawkish undertones, hinting that policymakers remain cautious and are willing to wait before cutting interest rates again.
The June FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers were increasingly split: while some policymakers acknowledged tariffs as a source of persistent upside inflationary pressure, others signaled openness to rate cuts should core inflation and employment soften.
Fed rate‑cut expectations were dialed back after the release of the FOMC minutes, keeping odds of a July rate cut close to zero. Markets are currently pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, most likely in September and December.
BTC/USD 1h Chart
ETH/USD 1h Chart
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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli
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