Important calendar events
The dollar gained strength last week, with the dollar index rising from 105.9 to 107.0. US treasury yields also gained strength, providing support for the dollar, with the US 10-year bond yield rising from 4.15% to 4.40%.
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The Fed had already launched its easing cycle in September, with an aggressive 50-bp rate cut, signaling the end of its restrictive monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the progress of disinflation is steady, and the labor market is strong, permitting a shift towards a more neutral monetary policy.
Markets this week will focus on the Fed monetary policy meeting on the 18th. Policymakers have been speaking in favor of a rate cut in December in the past few weeks, and a 25-basis point rate cut is fully priced in by markets.
Traders will focus mostly on the Fed’s forward guidance and especially on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference after the policy meeting. Increased volatility in the dollar is expected during his speech and for some time after, as markets will digest the Fed’s message. Especially important is the release of the Fed’s dot plot after the policy meeting. This is a chart that is updated quarterly and records each Fed official's projection for the central bank's interest rate. The Fed’s updated dot plot on Wednesday will determine the central bank’s rate outlook and affect market expectations of rate cuts into 2025.
On the data front, US inflation is proving to be sticky despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring it down to its 2.0% target. US CPI data on Wednesday showed that monthly inflation rose by 0.3% in November, the same as in October, which was in line with expectations. Headline inflation rose to 2.7% year-on-year in November from 2.6% in October, as anticipated. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also within market expectations and rose by 0.3% in November.
US PPI inflation data on Thursday showed that producer prices are rising in the US, confirming that disinflation in the US is stalling. PPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year in November from 2.6% in October against market expectations of a 2.6% print. Annual core PPI rose by 3.4% in November surpassing market estimates of 3.2%.
An uptick in November’s inflation was expected by markets and odds of a Fed rate cut in December went up after the release of last week’s inflation data. Last week’s inflation data were the last major economic data due before the Fed policy meeting in December, which could potentially prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates. After the release of the US inflation report last week, market odds of a rate cut in December rose to 99%. The Fed’s blackout period has already begun ahead of the policy meeting on December 18th, so FOMC members were not able to comment on this week’s inflation data, and a rate cut this week is now fully priced in.
Initial Jobless Claims data released on Thursday came in higher than expected for the week ending December 6. Unemployment Claims went up to 242K from 225K, beating market estimates of 220K.
Preliminary GDP data for the third quarter of the year showed that the US economy expanded by only 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, after rising by 3.0% in the second quarter of the year and by 1.4% in the first quarter of the year, while markets were anticipating 3.0% growth in the third quarter of 2024. The US economy is suffering from prolonged tightening, raising recession concerns.
This coming week important fundamentals that may affect the dollar include the release of Retail sales on the 17th, one day before the Fed policy meeting. Quarterly US GDP data on the 19th may also cause some volatility in the price of the dollar. Core PCE Price Index data on Friday are especially important. This is the Federal Reserve’s inflation gauge and is likely to affect market expectations of future rate cuts, especially coming so close to the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday.
The Euro exhibited high volatility last week, especially after the ECB rate decision on Thursday. EUR/USD moved in a downtrend last week, dropping from 1.055 to 1.050. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.046, while resistance may be encountered near 1.063.
The ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing its main refinancing rate to 3.15%. This was the fourth rate cut for the ECB this year, which started its easing cycle in June and has already lowered interest rates by a total of 100 bps. More importantly, ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted at further easing in the coming months as Eurozone inflation nears the central bank’s target while the economy remains weak.
Lagarde’s press conference after the policy meeting was dovish, raising expectations of further rate cuts. Lagarde stressed that risks to growth are tilted to the downside especially since trade friction with the US is expected. In addition, Lagarde admitted that several policymakers advocated for a sharper rate cut of 50bps at December’s meeting. Market expectations of future ECB rate cuts rose after Lagarde’s speech. The central bank is currently expected to cut interest rates up to five more times next year, to a total of 125bps, until neutral policy settings are reached.
The Euro is under pressure as a climate of political instability has prevailed in the Eurozone. France’s Prime Minister, Michel Barnier resigned after he lost a vote of no-confidence and the French government collapsed. Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron selected the leader of the Democratic Movement Michel Barnier to replace Michel Barnier as France’s prime minister. Increased volatility in the EUR/USD pair is expected this week as a new government is formed in France.
Political instability in Germany is also weighing down the Euro. Germany is the Eurozone’s leading economy and the recent reports of snap elections in February are creating a climate of uncertainty. German Chancellor Scholz called for a vote of confidence on Wednesday, which will be held on Monday. Scholz’s move essentially sets Germany on course for an early election after his three-party governing coalition collapsed five weeks ago. If he fails to secure the votes of the absolute majority of the German Parliament, he will likely have to call for elections in February.
On the data front, investor morale in the eurozone dropped to its lowest level since November 2023 according to data released on Monday. The Sentix index for the eurozone fell to -17.5 in December, from -12.8 in November, against estimates of a -13.5 print.
Eurozone inflation remains above the ECB’s 2% target and may prevent the ECB from cutting interest rates in December. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.3% year-on-year in November from 2.0% in October, which was in line with expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.7% in November, against expectations of a 2.8% print.
Flash GDP data showed that the Eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% in Q3 of 2024, rising from 0.2% in Q2. The Eurozone economy also expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024. The economic outlook of the EU remains fragile as prolonged tightening has brought the Euro area economy to the brink of recession.
GBP/USD plummeted from 1.277 to 1.261 last week after the release of disappointing economic data for the UK. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.281, while support may be found near 1.248.
At the latest BOE policy meeting, MPC members voted with a strong majority of 8-1 to cut rates to 4.75%. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that the central bank intends to adopt a gradual approach to cutting interest rates. This would give policymakers time to assess the impact of the Government’s new budget on inflation.
The BOE is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at its policy meeting this coming week on the 19th having cut interest rates twice already this year. Inflationary pressures in the UK are still elevated and are likely to prevent the BOE from cutting interest rates next week. Price pressures on Britain’s labor market, in particular, are causing concerns among BOE policymakers.
CPI data showed an uptick in British inflation in October, which may prevent the BOE from cutting interest rates further. Headline inflation in the UK rose to 2.3% year-on-year in October from 1.7% in September, surpassing expectations of 2.2%. Core annual inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 3.2% in October from 3.2% in September against 3.1% anticipated.
GDP data released on Friday were disappointing showing that the British economy contracted by the second consecutive month, putting pressure on the Sterling. The British economy contracted by 0.1% in October, falling short of expectations of 0.1% expansion and following 0.1% contraction in September. After the release of the British GDP data, Goldman Sachs cut the UK's GDP growth forecast for 2024 from 1.2% to 1.0%.
In addition, British Industrial and Manufacturing Production both contracted by 0.6% in October against expectations of 0.3% and 0.2% expansion respectively.
Britain's housing market gained strength in November according to data released on Thursday. The RICS House Price Balance index, which represents the percentage of surveyors reporting a price increase, rose by 25% in November from 16% in October against expectations of 19% print.
This coming week the most important data in the economic calendar for the UK are the monthly GDP data due on Friday. Markets anticipate that the British economy started to expand again by 0.1% in October, after falling into contractionary territory in September.
USD/JPY traded at an uptrend last week, rising from 149.9 to 153.7. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support at 148.4. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance at 156.7.
The USD/JPY rose above the 150.0 level this week, which is considered a line in the sand for an intervention in support of the Yen. Expectations of a BOJ rate hike in December have been fluctuating strongly in the past couple of weeks. Reports that Japanese officials are considering a rate hike at the next BOJ policy meeting on December 19th created increased volatility in the price of the Yen last week. According to a report by Bloomberg, some BOJ policymakers see little value in waiting until the next year to raise interest rates and may vote in favor of a rate hike next week. Market odds of a BOJ rate hike in the following months are high, but the precise timing of the rate hike remains unknown. There is no consensus within the central bank, which will likely result in some members voting in favor of a rate cut this week, but the majority opting to wait until January before raising interest rates.
The BOJ maintained its current monetary policy guidelines steady and its interest rate at 0.25% at its latest policy meeting. The BOJ had pivoted to a more hawkish policy at its meeting in July, raising interest rates by 15 basis points, the BOJ’s largest rate hike since 2007. The BOJ had already hiked interest rates once more in March, ending its negative interest rate policy.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s forward guidance was hawkish. Ueda hinted at another rate hike in the following months, if economic and inflationary conditions are met. The BOJ will likely pivot to a more restrictive monetary policy in the following months, which will provide some much-needed support for the Yen. At the same time, the US is easing interest rates, moving towards a less restrictive monetary policy, which is slowing down the USD/JPY’s ascent.
Inflation in Japan is on the rise, raising the odds of a BOJ rate hike in December and providing support for the Yen. Tokyo Core CPI came in at 2.3% annually in November, beating expectations of 2.0% and far exceeding October’s print of 1.8%. In addition, Headline inflation in Japan rose by 2.3% year-on-year in October against expectations of a 2.2% print. BOJ Core CPI, however, dropped to 1.5% year-on-year in October from 1.7% in September against expectations of 1.8%.
Final GDP data for the third quarter of the year showed that Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3%, exceeding initial estimates of 0.2%, but down from 0.7% in the second quarter. The Japanese economy is expanding, after shrinking by 0.5% in the first quarter of the year.
Gold prices were volatile last week, hitting a five-week high of $2,726 per ounce mid-week but paring most of the week’s gains later in the week and dropping back to the $2,650 per ounce mark. If gold prices rise, they may encounter resistance at $2,726 per ounce, while if gold prices decline, support may be encountered near $2,610 per ounce.
Gold has been trading in an uptrend since last week, but its rally was halted on Thursday. Gold prices hit a five-week high on Thursday but plummeted later in the week as many traders rushed to realize their gains. Meanwhile, the dollar continued gaining strength, putting pressure on gold prices.
Gold prices have been typically directed by the dollar’s movement, as the competing gold typically loses appeal as an investment when the dollar rises. The dollar gained strength last week, with the dollar index rising from 105.9 to 107.0. US treasury yields also gained strength, providing support for the dollar, with the US 10-year bond yield rising from 4.15% to 4.40%.
Gold prices are supported by increased Fed rate cut expectations. The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%. Markets this week will focus on the Fed monetary policy meeting on the 18th. Fed policymakers have been speaking in favor of a rate cut in December in the past few weeks, and a 25-basis point rate cut is fully priced in, boosting gold prices.
Even though disinflation in the US is stalling, odds of a Fed rate cut in December went up after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. After the release of the US inflation report last week, market odds of a rate cut in December rose to 99% and a rate cut this week is now fully priced in.
Gold prices gained strength earlier this week as the Bank of China announced over the weekend that it is going to resume gold purchases after a six-month break.
Geopolitical tensions continue to rise, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. The civil war in Syria has been rekindled, further destabilizing the region. In a surprise offensive, Syrian rebels have captured Damascus and toppled the government. The Syrian rebel army is currently in charge and political instability in Syria is reigniting geopolitical risks, boosting gold prices.
Meanwhile, a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been officially declared. Reports, however, that Israel has been repeatedly violating the ceasefire, propped up gold prices last week. In addition, the situation between Russia and Ukraine remains critical.
Oil prices surged last week and WTI price rose from $66.9 to $71.1 per barrel. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $66.9 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $71.7 per barrel.
US crude oil inventories released on Wednesday showed an unexpected drop in US crude stockpiles, boosting oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration reported a weekly crude stockpile draw of 1.4M barrels for the week to December 6th, against expectations of a 1.0M barrel draw and following a drop of 5.51 barrels the week before.
On Wednesday, OPEC cut oil demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for the fifth month in a row. OPEC has cut 2024 demand growth by 210K barrels a day to 1.6 million barrels a day. The organization estimates that oil demand will drop by an additional 90K barrels per day into 2025.
OPEC+ has announced that it will extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025. Oil prices have been under pressure and the cartel is limiting production in an attempt to raise oil prices.
Meanwhile, concerns of a broadening conflict in the Middle East have been boosting oil prices in the past year. The civil war in Syria has been rekindled, further destabilizing the region. In a surprise offensive, Syrian rebels have captured Damascus and toppled the government. The Syrian rebel army is currently in charge and political instability in Syria is reigniting geopolitical risks, boosting oil prices.
A 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been officially declared, putting pressure on oil prices. Israel, however, is continuing attacks in the Gaza area. In addition, the situation between Russia and Ukraine remains critical.
Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. Even though disinflation in the US is stalling, odds of a Fed rate cut in December went up after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. After the release of the US inflation report last week, market odds of a rate cut in December rose to 99% and a rate cut this week is now fully priced in, boosting oil prices.
Bitcoin price was volatile last week, dropping below $95,000 early in the week, but rallying towards the end of the week and rising to the $103,000 level over the weekend. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $90,800, while resistance may be encountered at the recent all-time high of $104,446.
Ethereum price also exhibited high volatility last week, dropping to $3,500 early in the week, but erased the week’s losses toward the end of the week, rising back to the $3,900 mark. If EtEthereum'srice declines, it may encounter support near $3,250, while if it increases, resistance may be encountered near $4,080.
Bitcoin price rose above the $100,000 milestone last week for the first time in history, registering a new all-time high of $104,446. Bitcoin lost its upward momentum early last week, as many traders rushed to sell at record-high prices. A massive sell-off was triggered, which continued on Tuesday, as many traders rushed to close their positions. Bitcoin suffered its biggest liquidation since 2021 early last week and crypto market liquidation came in at almost $2 billion. Bitcoin rallied towards the end of the week though, touching the $103,000 level over the weekend, and market analysts predict it may rise to a new record high this week.
Crypto markets rallied on Wednesday on rising Fed rate cut expectations but their rally was halted on Thursday. Cryptocurrency prices are affected by central banks’ interest rates. High interest rates are restricting economic growth, putting pressure on risk assets, while the promise of rate cuts boosts crypto markets. Even though disinflation in the US is stalling, odds of a Fed rate cut in December went up after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. After the release of the US inflation report last week, market odds of a rate cut in December rose to 99% and a rate cut this week is now fully priced in, propping up cryptocurrencies.
Reports that Trump plans to appoint Paul Atkins as the new Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) boosted crypto markets last week. Atkins is currently the CEO at Patomak Global Partners and has served as SEC commissioner in the past. Atkins’ appointment raised market expectations of less stringent legislation for cryptocurrencies, propping up crypto markets.
US President-elect Donald Trump has openly declared his support of crypto markets, announcing that he will make the US ‘the crypto capital of the planet’. Growing expectations that the new government will adopt a pro-crypto regulatory and fiscal policy have been boosting crypto markets, especially since Donald Trump announced plans to accumulate a national Bitcoin stockpile.
Geopolitical concerns are promoting a risk aversion sentiment, however, lowering the appeal of high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. A 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been officially declared. Reports, however, that Israel has been repeatedly violating the ceasefire, lowered risk sentiment last week. Meanwhile, the civil war in Syria has been rekindled, further destabilizing the region.
BTC/USD 1h Chart
ETH/USD 1h Chart
The content provided in this material and/or any other material that this content is referred to, whether it comes from a third party or not, is for information purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation and/or investment advice and/or investment research and/or suggestions for performing any actions with financial products or instruments, or to participate in any particular trading strategy and cannot guarantee any profits. Past performance does not constitute a reliable indicator of future results. TopFX does not represent that the material provided here is accurate, current, or complete and therefore shouldn't be relied upon as such. This material does not take into account the reader's financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of TopFX, no reproduction or redistribution of the information provided herein is permitted.
Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli
Hiện diện trong ngành tài chính như là một Nhà cung cấp Thanh khoản
và thực thi đáng tin cậy
tiền của khách hàng
hỗ trợ khách hàng
Điền thông tin vào mẫu đăng ký
và click
"Tạo Tài khoản".
Khi bạn đã ở trong khu vực của khách hàng, vui lòng tiếp tục tải lên Giấy tờ Nhận dạng và Giấy tờ Cư trú của bạn.
Khi tài khoản thực của bạn được chấp thuận, bạn có thể nạp tiền và bắt đầu giao dịch trên nền tảng bạn đã chọn!
Trang web bạn đang xem được điều hành bởi TopFX Global Ltd , một thực thể được quản lý bởi Cơ quan Dịch vụ Tài chính (FSA) của Seychelles với Giấy phép Đại lý Chứng khoán Số SD037 không được thành lập tại Liên minh Châu Âu hoặc được quản lý bởi Cơ quan có thẩm quyền Quốc gia của EU Thẩm quyền.
Nếu bạn muốn tiếp tục, vui lòng xác nhận rằng bạn hiểu và chấp nhận các rủi ro liên quan đến giao dịch với một thực thể không thuộc EU (vì những rủi ro này được mô tả trong Biểu mẫu xác nhận sáng kiến và rằng quyết định của bạn sẽ là sáng kiến độc quyền của riêng bạn và không có sự xúi giục nào được thực hiện bởi TopFX Global Ltd hoặc bất kỳ thực thể nào khác trong Tập đoàn.
Don't show this message again
Trang web TopFX sử dụng cookie để tối ưu hóa trải nghiệm người dùng.
Các cookie này thuộc các danh mục sau: cookie thiết yếu, chức năng và tiếp thị. Cookie tiếp thị cũng có thể bao gồm cookie của bên thứ ba.
Bạn có thể tùy chỉnh lựa chọn cookie mà bạn muốn chấp nhận.
Những cookie này là cần thiết để trang web hoạt động chính xác và không thể tắt được.
Cookie chức năng cho phép trang web ghi nhớ sở thích của người dùng và các lựa chọn bạn thực hiện trên trang web như tên người dùng, khu vực và ngôn ngữ.
Những cookie này được sử dụng để theo dõi khách truy cập trên các trang web của chúng tôi và hiển thị cho bạn những quảng cáo có liên quan hơn. Cookie tiếp thị cũng bao gồm cookie của bên thứ ba từ các đối tác. Để biết thêm thông tin liên quan đến bảo vệ và thu thập dữ liệu, vui lòng xem Chính sách Bảo mật và Tiết lộ Cookie của chúng tôi.
