Oil prices surge in anticipation of further OPEC cuts

Oil prices surged on Tuesday and WTI price rose from $68.2 to $70.2 per barrel later. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $66.9 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $71.6 per barrel.

Oil prices surged on Tuesday ahead of the OPEC+ Output Policy meeting on Thursday. OPEC’s December meeting holds special interest, as the organization is expected to announce its output plans for the year and markets anticipate an extension of OPEC’s oil production cuts into 2025. Comments from members of the OPEC+ consortium ahead of the meeting are likely to cause volatility in oil prices. 

Rumours that the cartel will extend its voluntary production cuts for three more months, boosted oil prices on Tuesday. According to a report by Reuters on Tuesday, OPEC is likely to extend supply cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025. OPEC+ members have previously stated that they intend to gradually end production cuts through next year. However, oil prices have been under pressure recently and the cartel is likely to keep production cuts in place for a few more months.

Concerns of a broadening conflict in the Middle East have boosted oil prices in the past year. A 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was officially declared last week putting pressure on oil prices. Reports, however, that Israel has been repeatedly violating the ceasefire, boosted oil prices this week. Israel threatened to attack the Lebanese state if its truce with Hezbollah collapses on Tuesday, reigniting geopolitical concerns. Meanwhile, a civil war has broken out in Syria, further destabilizing the region. In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia may use its new nuclear-capable missiles against Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s using long-range missiles to attack Russian territories.

Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. Market odds of a December rate cut rose to 75% on Tuesday, boosting oil prices.

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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