Important calendar events
The dollar dipped last week, and the index dropped from 108.4 to 106.7. US treasury yields were volatile last week, with the-year bond yield surging from 4.51% to 4.66% mid-week anand d then dropping to 4.48% at the end of the week.
The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
The Fed’s latest monetary policy statement did not include an earlier mention that US inflation is moving towards the central bank’s 2% target. Instead, the report stated that price pressures remain elevated, which points to a prolonged pause in rate cuts.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a mildly hawkish message after the policy meeting, stating that the Fed’s approach will remain data-driven and stressed that the central bank needs to consider potential policy changes under Trump’s administration.
Market odds of another rate cut dropped after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. Markets odds of rate cuts within the year are currently between 25 and 50 basis points as inflationary pressures remain high. Concerns that inflation may rise again if trade wars break out have pushed the timeline of policy normalization back to 2026.
On Tuesday, Powell testified about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. Powell’s speech was hawkish, hinting that the Fed may pause rate cuts for some time. Powell stated that the US economy is robust, while at the same time, inflation remains elevated, indicating that interest rates will remain at restrictive levels for longer than originally anticipated. Powell refused to comment on how the new US government’s tariff policies are affecting the US economy and the pace of monetary policy normalization but stated that the US President is forbidden by law to remove a Fed board member. Powell completed his two-day semiannual Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday, with a testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell stressed that the battle against inflation is ongoing and stated that he does not intend to resign if asked to by Trump.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that interest rates should be lowered and that they should go hand in hand with trade tariffs. His statement, however, was given before the release of the US CPI data on Wednesday that showed that inflation in the US is on the rise.
Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. On Monday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports for all countries importing into the US, raising concerns over global trade wars. Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Thursday, Trump signed an order to his staff to develop custom tariffs for each country, stating “Whatever they charge us, we will charge them”.
If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise and the economic outlook will worsen, thus promoting a risk aversion sentiment that boosts safe-haven assets. Concerns that US inflation will rise again are raising the likelihood that interest rates will remain at restrictive levels for longer, lowering expectations of future rate cuts.
On the data front, US Retail sales data on Friday were weaker than anticipated, indicating that the health of the US economy is deteriorating. Retail Sales dropped by 0.9% in January, following a 0.7% increase in December against market expectations of a 0.1% drop. Core Retail Sales, which exclude the sales of automobiles, contracted by 0.4% in January after rising by 0.7% in December, falling below expectations of 0.3% growth.
On Thursday, reports that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to initiate negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, eased geopolitical tensions. Hopes that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine might finally end, reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets on Thursday, putting pressure on the dollar.
The US inflation report released last week showed that inflation in the US is on the rise. US inflation data released on Wednesday were hotter than anticipated, indicating that inflationary pressures are on the rise and lowering Fed rate cut expectations. Headline inflation rose by 3.0% year-on-year in January after rising by 2.9% in December against expectations of a 2.9% print. Monthly inflation rose sharply by 0.5% in January after rising 0.4% in December against a 0.3% rise anticipated. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.4% in January, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and following a 0.2% rise in December. Core CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in January, against a 3.2% gain in December.
Producer Price Index data on Thursday showed an uptick in producer inflation in January. PPI rose by 3.5% year-on-year in January, following a 3.3% increase in December and exceeding expectations of 3.2%. Every month, the PPI rose by 0.4% in January against the 0.3% anticipated, while December’s print was revised upward to reflect 0.5% growth. Annual Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.6% in January, surpassing analysts' estimate of 3.3%.
Meanwhile, US Unemployment Claims on Thursday fell to 213K for the week ending February 8 from 220K and came in below expectations of 217K.
Advance GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the US economy expanded by 2.3%, following a 3.1% expansion in the third quarter of 2024 and falling below market estimates of 2.7% growth. In addition, the US economy expanded by 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024 and by 1.4% in the first quarter.
This coming week markets will continue to focus on Trump’s economic policies and trade tariffs and Trump’s statements are likely to cause volatility in the price of the dollar. Traders are also awaiting the release of the minutes of the latest Fed meeting on Wednesday, which may provide information on the central bank’s policy outlook.
EUR/USD gained strength last week, rising from 1.028 to 1.050 as the dollar weakened. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.017, while resistance may be encountered near 1.053.
The ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in January, bringing its main refinancing rate down to 2.90% from 3.15%. The central bank is currently expected to cut interest rates up to four more times in 2025, to a total of 125bps, until neutral policy settings are reached. Expectations that the ECB will return to a more normalized policy setting sooner than the Fed are putting pressure on the EUR/USD rate.
In her speech after the policy meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that EU policymakers will not commit to a predefined rate cut path and that the central bank’s policy will remain data-driven.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose trade tariffs on the EU. On Monday, Christine Lagarde reassured markets that Eurozone inflation is on track to reach the ECB’s 2% target within the year. On Tuesday, European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen, reacting to Trump’s threats to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, said that the EU would be forced to take counter-measures.
EU CPI Flash Estimate data showed that Eurozone inflation remains above the ECB’s 2% target and may prevent the ECB from cutting interest rates further. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.5% year-on-year in January from 2.4% in December. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.7% in January.
Preliminary Flash GDP data showed that the Eurozone economy remained stagnant in the final quarter of 2024 after expanding by 0.3% in the second quarter, raising concerns about stagflation in the EU. The economic outlook of the EU remains fragile as prolonged tightening has brought the Euro area economy to the brink of recession.
GBP/USD gained strength last week, rising from 1.235 to 1.260 as the dollar weakened. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.272, while support may be found near 1.233.
BOE policymakers cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week and the Official Bank Rate was reduced from 4.75% to 4.5%. Seven out of nine MPC members voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, while surprisingly, the other two members were more dovish, voting for a 50bps rate cut.
One of the two MPC members who voted in favor of a larger rate cut was Catherine Mann, who had so far been known for her hawkish stance. Catherine Mann gave an interview with the Financial Times on Tuesday, explaining her reasons for her shift to a dovish stance. Mann said that the 50 bps rate cut vote was a way to communicate to traders about the appropriate conditions for the UK economy.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivered a speech that had dovish undertones, hinting at further rate cuts. Bailey, however, stressed that the BOE will need to decide on its policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis and refused to commit to a timeline or magnitude of future rate cuts. Market expectations of future BOE rate cuts rose after the policy meeting, pricing in 65bps of easing by the end of 2025.
In addition, the BOE updated its economic forecasts after the policy meeting. The central bank currently anticipates that the British economy will grow by 0.75% by the end of 2025 and inflation will rise from 2.5% to 3.7%. Bailey stressed that even though the BOE anticipates a rise in inflation in the coming months, this does not warrant a more restrictive monetary policy.
GDP data released on Thursday for the UK were more optimistic than anticipated, indicating that the British economy is starting to recover. The British economy expanded by 0.4% in December, following expansion by 0.1% in November and exceeding expectations of a 0.1% print. Preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the British economy expanded by 0.1% against estimates of 0.1% contraction and following economic stagnation in the third quarter of 2024.
The Index of services came in at 0.2% for the three months ending December, against expectations of 0.1% growth and a previous reading of 0%. British Industrial Production expanded by 0.5% in December, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. Manufacturing Production grew by 0.7% in December against estimates of stagnation.
Price pressures in the UK are easing, raising the odds of a BOE rate cut in February and providing support for the Sterling. Headline inflation in the UK rose to 2.5% year-on-year in December, dropping from 2.6% in November. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.2% annually in December, against a 3.5% reading in November.
This coming week UK CPI data on Wednesday are expected to show that headline inflation rose by 2.8% annually in January, up from 2.5% in December.
USD/JPY was volatile last week, rising from 152.0 to 154.8 mid-week then completely erasing the week’s gains by the end of the week. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support at 150.9. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance at 156.7.
The BOJ raised its interest rate by 25 basis points in January, from 0.25% to 0.50%, its highest level since 2008. In addition, the BOJ adjusted its inflation projections upward, to reflect the depreciation of the yen and rising oil prices, hinting at more rate hikes down the road. Policymakers expect Japan’s inflation to rise to 2.4% in 2025, up from previous estimates of 1.9%, and above the central bank’s 2% target.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if Japan’s economy continues to improve and the BOJ 2% inflation target is reached. Ueda emphasized, however, that the timeline of future rate hikes will depend on economic and inflationary conditions. Markets currently anticipate that the BOJ will raise interest rates to a peak interest of 1.00% over the next two years.
Inflation in Japan is on the rise, raising the odds of future rate hikes and providing support for the Yen. The headline Tokyo CPI inflation rose to 3.4% annually in January from 3.0% in December. Headline inflation in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in December from 2.7% in November. In addition, BOJ Core CPI rose to 1.7% year-on-year in November from 1.5% in October.
Final GDP data for the third quarter of 2024 showed that Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3%, down from 0.7% in the second quarter. The Japanese economy is expanding, after shrinking by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024.
This coming week preliminary GDP data are due on Monday for the last quarter of 2024 and are expected to show that the Japanese economy continues to contract. National Core CPI data due on Friday are expected to show that inflation in Japan rose to 3.1% annually in January.
Gold prices hit an all-time high of $2,942 per ounce on Tuesday but dropped to $2,900 per ounce by the end of the week. If gold prices rise, they may encounter resistance at the psychological level of $2,950 per ounce, while if gold prices decline, support may be encountered near $2,850 per ounce.
Gold prices reached a new all-time high of $2,942 per ounce on Tuesday. Gold’s rally was halted later in the week and gold prices dropped after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday.
The dollar dipped last week, and the index dropped from 108.4 to 106.7. US treasury yields were volatile last week, with the 10-year bond yield surging from 4.51% to 4.66% mid-week and then dropping to 4.48% at the end of the week.
On the other hand, reports that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to initiate negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, eased geopolitical tensions on Thursday. Hopes that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine might finally end, reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets, putting pressure on gold prices.
US inflation data released on Wednesday were hotter than anticipated, indicating that inflationary pressures are on the rise and lowering Fed rate cut expectations. Headline inflation rose by 3.0% year-on-year in January after rising by 2.9% in December against expectations of a 2.9% print. Monthly inflation rose sharply by 0.5% in January after rising 0.4% in December against a 0.3% rise anticipated. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.4% in January, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and following a 0.2% rise in December. Core CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in January, against a 3.2% gain in December. Producer Price Index data on Thursday also showed an uptick in producer inflation in January.
Gold prices are under pressure by decreased Fed rate cut expectations. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Market odds of another rate cut dropped after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. Markets odds of rate cuts within the year are currently between 25 and 50 basis points as inflationary pressures remain high.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a mildly hawkish message after the policy meeting, putting pressure on gold prices. Powell stated that the Fed’s approach will remain data-driven and stressed that the central bank needs to consider potential policy changes under Trump’s administration.
On Tuesday, Powell testified about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. Powell’s speech was hawkish, hinting that the Fed may pause rate cuts for some time. Powell stated that the US economy is robust, while at the same time, inflation remains elevated, indicating that interest rates will remain at restrictive levels for longer than originally anticipated. Powell refused to comment on how the new US government’s tariff policies are affecting the US economy and the pace of monetary policy normalization but stated that the US President is forbidden by law to remove a Fed board member. Powell completed his two-day semiannual Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday, with a testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell stressed that the battle against inflation is ongoing and stated that he does not intend to resign if asked to by Trump.
Uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s future policies and trade tariffs promotes a risk aversion sentiment, raising the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as gold. Concerns that Trump’s trade policies may ignite global trading wars are raising the appeal of gold.
US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. On Monday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports for all countries importing into the US, raising concerns over global trade wars.
Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Thursday, Trump signed an order to his staff to develop custom tariffs for each country, stating “Whatever they charge us, we will charge them”. If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise and the economic outlook will worsen, thus promoting a risk aversion sentiment that boosts safe-haven assets.
Oil prices were volatile last week and WTI price rose to $74.2 per barrel early in the week then plummeted to $70.7 per barrel at the end of the week. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $70.5 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $74.1 per barrel.
Oil prices are under pressure by concerns over Trump’s energy agenda. Trump has vowed to declare a national energy emergency and start drilling for oil immediately to build up US strategic reserves. US crude oil inventories released on Wednesday showed that US crude stockpiles exceeded expectations, putting pressure on oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a weekly crude stockpile build of 4.1M barrels for the week to February 7, exceeding expectations of 2.4M barrel growth and following a rise of 8.7M barrels the week before.
Reports that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to initiate negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, eased geopolitical tensions on Thursday. Hopes that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine might finally end, eased oil supply concerns, putting pressure on oil prices.
Trump has already issued a series of executive orders imposing tariffs on trading countries. US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. On Monday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports for all countries importing into the US, raising concerns over global trade wars.
Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Thursday, Trump signed an order to his staff to develop custom tariffs for each country, stating “Whatever they charge us, we will charge them”. If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise and the economic outlook will worsen, putting pressure on oil prices.
Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a mildly hawkish message after the policy meeting, putting pressure on oil prices. Powell stated that the Fed’s approach will remain data-driven and stressed that the central bank needs to consider potential policy changes under Trump’s administration.
US inflation data released on Wednesday were hotter than anticipated, indicating that inflationary pressures are on the rise and lowering Fed rate cut expectations. Headline inflation rose by 3.0% year-on-year in January after rising by 2.9% in December against expectations of a 2.9% print. Market odds of another rate cut dropped after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in only a single 25bps rate cut within the year as inflationary pressures remain high. Producer Price Index data on Thursday also showed an uptick in producer inflation in January.
Supply concerns are providing support for oil prices, however. US President Donald Trump has imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The Iranian government has urged OPEC members to take united action against the US sanctions, while the US President is pressuring Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output to make up for the deficit that will be created by the sanctions.
OPEC+ has announced that it will extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025, however. Oil prices have been under pressure and the cartel is limiting production in an attempt to raise oil prices.
Bitcoin traded sideways last week, oscillating around the $96,500 level. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $94,000, while resistance may be encountered at $100,000.
Ethereum also remained steady last week, trading close to the $2,670 level. If Ethereum's price declines, it may encounter support near $2,500, while if it increases, resistance may be encountered near $2,900.
Bitcoin price registered a new all-time high of $109,880 in January but has since been under pressure by increased risk aversion sentiment. Most major cryptocurrencies are under pressure on concerns that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may start global trading wars.
Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. The uncertainty over Trump’s future policies and trade tariffs is generating a risk aversion sentiment, putting pressure on crypto markets.
US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. On Monday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports for all countries importing into the US, raising concerns over global trade wars.
Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Thursday, Trump signed an order to his staff to develop custom tariffs for each country, stating “Whatever they charge us, we will charge them”. If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise and the economic outlook will worsen, thus promoting a risk aversion sentiment, which puts pressure on crypto markets.
Trump’s proposed plans for building a Bitcoin strategic reserve have been boosting Bitcoin price. Growing expectations that the US government will adopt a pro-crypto regulatory and fiscal policy are boosting crypto markets.
Cryptocurrency prices are also affected by central banks’ interest rates. High interest rates stifle economic growth, putting pressure on crypto markets. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting, after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50.
US inflation data released this week were hotter than anticipated, indicating that inflationary pressures are on the rise and lowering Fed rate cut expectations. Headline inflation rose by 3.0% year-on-year in January after rising by 2.9% in December against expectations of a 2.9% print. Market odds of another rate cut dropped after the release of the US inflation report. Markets are pricing in only a single 25bps rate cut within the year as inflationary pressures remain high.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a mildly hawkish message after the policy meeting. Powell stated that the Fed’s approach will remain data-driven and stressed that the central bank needs to consider potential policy changes under Trump’s administration. On Tuesday, Powell testified about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. Powell’s speech was hawkish, hinting that the Fed may pause rate cuts for some time. Powell completed his two-day semiannual Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday, with a testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell stressed that the battle against inflation is ongoing and stated that he does not intend to resign if asked to by Trump.
BTC/USD 1h Chart
ETH/USD 1h Chart
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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli
صنعت کی موجودگی ایک لیکویڈیٹی فراہم کنندہ کے طور پر
ور قابل اعتمادعملدرآمد
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یہ کوکیز ہماری ویب سائٹ کے وزیٹرز کو ٹریک کرنے اور آپ کو زیادہ متعلقہ اشتہارات دکھانے کیلئے استعمال کی جاتی ہیں۔ مارکیٹنگ کوکیز میں شراکت داروں کی تیسرے فریق کی کوکیز بھی شامل ہیں۔ ڈیٹا کے تحفظ اور جمع کرنے سے متعلق مزید معلومات کے لئے برائے مہربانی ہماری پرائیویسی پالیسی اور کوکی انکشاف ملاحظہ فرمائیں۔
