Oil prices volatile on Iran deal uncertainty

Oil prices were volatile on Thursday, with WTI prices ranging from $69 to $73 per barrel. If WTI's price declines, it may encounter support near $70 per barrel again, while resistance may be found near $74.6 per barrel.

Reports of U.S.-Iran talks on a nuclear deal caused volatility in oil prices on Thursday. The deal would eventually allow Iran to export more crude, but both sides rebutted the rumors later in the day, causing uncertainty in markets.

Chinese data on Wednesday showed that crude oil imports jumped by 12.2% year-on-year in May. China, which is the world’s top oil importer, imported a total of 12.11 million barrels per day of crude oil in May. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday an inventory decline of 500K barrels for the week to June 9, compared with an inventory build of 4.5 million barrels for the previous week.

Global economic concerns have been weighing oil prices down, raising concerns about further oil production cuts. OPEC+ members, however, opted to keep production cuts unchanged for the remainder of 2023. This includes the 2 million barrels-per-day cut announced last October. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, announced substantial voluntary cuts in its oil output. Saudi Arabia will reduce production by an additional one million barrels per day starting in July for a month that can be extended. This will reduce Saudi Arabia's production to 9 million barrels per day. The Kingdom will also extend a production cut of 500,000 barrels per day, which was announced in April, through 2024. Supply concerns drove oil prices up after the announcement.

The US debt crisis has been affecting not only the dollar, but most assets and commodities, including oil. US President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have negotiated a deal that will raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, preventing the US from going into default. The US Congress passed the deal to raise the US debt limit on Friday, and the US President signed the deal on Saturday, propping up oil prices.

Oil prices are boosted by diminishing rate hike expectations. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the US Central Bank may pivot in a more dovish direction. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its latest monetary policy meeting, bringing the benchmark interest rate to a 16-year high target range of 5.00% to 5.25%. The US Central Bank has signalled that its hawkish policy is coming to an end, providing support for oil prices. As major central banks wind down their hiking cycles, oil demand rises.

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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