Oil prices slip as geopolitical tensions ease

Oil prices continued to decline on Thursday and WTI price dipped below the $82.5 per barrel level. If WTI price declines, it may encounter support near $80.7 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $87.8 per barrel.

US crude oil inventories released on Wednesday showed a surprise build in US crude stockpiles, putting pressure on oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration reported that weekly crude stocks rose by 2.7M barrels for the week to April 12th, which exceeded expectations of a rise of 1.6M barrels. 

Geopolitical tensions are boosting oil prices. Supply concerns provide support for oil prices, as the crisis in the Middle East threatens to disrupt oil distribution. Tensions around the Red Sea area raise concerns that hostilities may spread further in the Middle East, affecting oil supply and distribution. Tensions in the Middle East have been high after the recent airstrike on Iran’s embassy in Syria. Iran accused Israel of the attack and launched a retaliative drone strike on Israeli ground over the weekend. Israel has, in turn, threatened Iran with retaliation for the drone attack, and the Israeli war cabinet has met to discuss the terms of Israel’s response against Iran. The US has pledged to support Israel in the conflict, raising concerns of a wider regional conflict, which might see oil prices rising even higher.

Later this week, however, oil prices dropped as markets reassessed geopolitical risks. Israel seems to be pondering its response against Iran and a retaliation does not appear to be imminent, diminishing supply concerns. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of retaliation against Iran, but any action will likely be taken after Passover at the end of the month, giving markets time to digest the situation.

OPEC+ kept existing output cuts in place at its latest meeting, boosting oil prices. OPEC kept its output policy steady in April, maintaining its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. In addition, Russia may be forced to reduce its oil output even further, as a result of lower refinery runs due to Ukrainian drone strikes. Iraq will continue to reduce its crude exports by another 130K barrels per day to compensate for exceeding its OPEC+ quota in January. 

China’s poor economic outlook is increasing concerns about reduced oil demand, putting a lid on oil prices, however, despite increasing geopolitical risks. Weak economic growth in China raises concerns about future demand, pushing oil prices down. 

Oil prices are also kept in check by high Fed interest rates. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting within a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Market expectations of rate cuts dropped sharply after the release of the US inflation report last week. Odds of rate cuts are becoming more moderate as policymakers have stated that they intend to start reducing interest rates slowly.

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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