Oil prices slip as geopolitical tensions ease

Oil prices slipped on Monday and WTI price dropped to $82.3 per barrel. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $81.2 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $84.6 per barrel.

Oil prices are supported by the seasonal oil demand outlook. Increased oil demand outlook in the summer months is propping up oil prices. Market estimates that oil demand will peak in July are boosting oil prices. 

Supply concerns provide support for oil prices on global geopolitical risks. The ongoing crisis in the Middle East threatens to disrupt oil distribution. Tensions around the Red Sea area raise concerns that hostilities may spread further in the Middle East, affecting oil supply and distribution. Hopes of a ceasefire deal in Gaza, however, are putting pressure on oil prices. 

Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting in June, within a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%, as expected. The US Fed is keeping interest rates at a 23-year high, restricting economic growth and limiting the oil demand outlook as a result. 

Odds of Fed rate cuts have become more moderate, putting pressure on oil prices. Renewed rate cut expectations propped up oil prices on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that significant progress has been made on disinflation, hinting at a rate cut in September. Odds of a Fed rate cut in September are approximately 75% but are fluctuating, causing volatility in oil prices. 

OPEC+ has decided to extend most of its voluntary production cuts into 2025 to boost oil prices. OPEC, however, announced that it would gradually phase out oil production cuts and laid out plans for restoring production levels within 2025. 

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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