Oil prices rise despite tariff concerns

Oil prices had been moving in a downward trajectory for almost a month but rallied on Monday, and WTI price rose from $71.6 to $72.9 per barrel. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $71.0 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $76.0 per barrel.

Oil prices are under pressure by concerns over US President Donald Trump’s energy agenda. Trump has vowed to declare a national energy emergency and start drilling for oil immediately to build up US strategic reserves. On Thursday, Trump reiterated that he plans to boost US oil production to bring oil prices down. Trump’s comments had the desired effect, and oil prices dropped on Thursday. 

Trump has already issued a series of executive orders imposing tariffs on trading countries. US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Monday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports for all countries importing into the US, raising concerns over global trade wars. 

If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise, and the economic outlook will worsen, putting pressure on oil prices. Oil prices, however, have been declining for the past month and started rallying on Monday, defying Trump’s tariff threats.

OPEC+ has announced that it will extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025, however. Oil prices have been under pressure,e and the cartel is limiting production in an attempt to raise oil prices. 

Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a mildly hawkish message after the policy meeting, putting pressure on oil prices. Powell stated that the Fed’s approach will remain data-driven and stressed that the central bank needs to consider potential policy changes under Trump’s administration.

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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