Important calendar events
The dollar dipped last week and the index dropped from 107.3 to 106.2. US treasury yields also declined, putting pressure on the dollar, with the US 10-year bond yield dropping from 4.56% to 4.43%.
The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
The Fed’s latest monetary policy statement did not include an earlier mention that US inflation is moving towards the central bank’s 2% target. Instead, the report stated that price pressures remain elevated, which points to a prolonged pause in rate cuts.
After the policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a mildly hawkish message, stating that the Fed’s approach will remain data-driven and stressed that the central bank needs to consider potential policy changes under Trump’s administration.
Markets odds of rate cuts within the year are currently between 25 and 50 basis points as inflationary pressures remain high. Concerns that inflation may rise again if trade wars break out have pushed the timeline of policy normalization back to 2026. The minutes of the January FOMC meeting were released on Wednesday and were overall hawkish, lowering Fed rate cut expectations. Policymakers were concerned with the impact that trade tariffs might have on US inflation and some Fed members stated that some measures of inflation had increased recently.
US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Tuesday, Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on foreign cars and semiconductor chips.
If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise and the economic outlook will worsen, thus promoting a risk aversion sentiment that boosts safe-haven assets. Concerns that US inflation will rise again are raising the likelihood that interest rates will remain at restrictive levels for longer, lowering expectations of future rate cuts.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday but the meeting was fruitless, boosting safe-haven assets. Hopes that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine might finally end, however, dropped as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy refused to attend the meeting. Zelenskiy stated that fair negotiations to end the war should involve Ukraine and the EU. The Russian side has also toughened its stance, stating that further meetings between Trump and Putin are not currently necessary due to unresolved Russian demands regarding Ukraine’s pending membership in NATO.
On the data front, economic activity data released last week were mostly disappointing, putting pressure on the dollar. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 64.7 in February, from 67.8 in January. In addition, the US Services sector fell into contractionary territory in February, with a print below the threshold of 50.0 that denotes industry expansion. US Services PMI dropped to 49.7 in February from 52.9 in January, falling short of expectations of 53.0. US manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6 in February, beating expectations of 51.5 January’s print of 51.2.
US Unemployment Claims rose to 219K for the week ending February 15, from 214K the week before, missing estimates of 215K. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for February came in at 18.1, which was significantly below the 44.3 reading in January but exceeded expectations of a 14.3 print.
Headline inflation in the US rose by 3.0% year-on-year in January after rising by 2.9% in December against expectations of a 2.9% print. Monthly inflation rose sharply by 0.5% in January after rising 0.4% in December against a 0.3%risee anticipated. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.4% in January, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and following a 0.2% rise in December. Core CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in January, against 3a .2% gain in December.
Advance GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the US economy expanded by 2.3%, following a 3.1% expansion in the third quarter of 2024 and falling below market estimates of 2.7% growth. In addition, the US economy expanded by 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024 and by 1.4% in the first quarter.
This coming week preliminary US GDP data for the final quarter of 2024 are due on Thursday and are expected to tally with former estimates. Core PCE Price Index data are due on Friday and are this week’s most highly-anticipated fundamentals. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and Friday’s data are expected to show that inflationary pressures in the US continue to rise.
In addition, markets will continue to focus on Trump’s economic policies and trade tariffs, and Trump’s statements are likely to cause volatility in the price of the dollar.
EUR/USD dipped from 1.050 to 1.040 early last week, but pared losses later, ending the week near 1.052. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.021, while resistance may be encountered near 1.053.
The ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in January, bringing its main refinancing rate down to 2.90% from 3.15%. The central bank is currently expected to cut interest rates up to four more times in 2025, to a total of 125bps, until neutral policy settings are reached. Expectations that the ECB will return to a more normalized policy setting sooner than the Fed are putting pressure on the EUR/USD rate.
In her speech after the policy meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that EU policymakers will not commit to a predefined rate cut path and that the central bank’s policy will remain data-driven.
On the data front, Manufacturing and Services PMI data released on Friday for some of the Eurozone’s leading economies and the EU as a whole were overall mixed. EU Services PMI fell to 50.7 in February from 51.3 in January, missing expectations of 51.5. The EU Services sector continued to expand, as evidenced by a print above 50.0, but the rate of expansion is slowing down. Business activity in Germany, which is the Eurozone’s leading economy, improved in February, with the Services sector remaining steady and the manufacturing sector contracting at a reduced pace.
Economic sentiment data released on Tuesday for the EU were optimistic, providing support for the Euro. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose sharply to 26.0 in February from 10.3 in January, exceeding market expectations of a 15.5 print. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 24.2 in February from 18.0 in January, which was in line with expectations.
EU CPI Flash Estimate data showed that Eurozone inflation remains above the ECB’s 2% target and may prevent the ECB from cutting interest rates further. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.5% year-on-year in January from 2.4% in December. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.7% in January.
Preliminary Flash GDP data showed that the Eurozone economy remained stagnant in the final quarter of 2024 after expanding by 0.3% in the second quarter, raising concerns about stagflation in the EU. The economic outlook of the EU remains fragile as prolonged tightening has brought the Euro area economy to the brink of recession.
GBP/USD traded in an uptrend last week, rising from 1.260 to 1.268. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.281, while support may be found near 1.215.
BOE policymakers cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week and the Official Bank Rate was reduced from 4.75% to 4.5%. Seven out of nine MPC members voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, while surprisingly, the other two members were more dovish, voting for a 50bps rate cut.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has hinted at further rate cuts but has stressed, at the same time, that the BOE will need to decide on its policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis and has refused to commit to a timeline or magnitude of future rate cuts. Markeisre currently pricing in over 50 bps of easing by the end of 2025.
The BOE currently anticipates that the British economy will grow by 0.75% by the end of 2025 and inflation will rise from 2.5% to 3.7%. On Tuesday, however, Bailey stated that he is concerned over the UK’s economic outlook. Bailey said that the UK is facing a weak growth environment but stressed that this is a period of increased economic uncertainty.
The British economy expanded by 0.4% in December, following expansion by 0.1% in November and exceeding expectations of a 0.1% print. Preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the British economy expanded by 0.1% against estimates of 0.1% contraction and following economic stagnation in the third quarter of 2024.
CPI data released on Wednesday showed that price pressures in the UK are rising, reducing the odds of a BOE rate cut in February and putting pressure on the Sterling. Headline inflation in the UK rose by 3.0% annually in January up from 2.5% in December, against expectations of a 2.8% print. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.7% year-on-year in January from 3.2% in December, which was in line with expectations.
USD/JPY remained in a downtrend last week, plunging from 152.4 to 149.4 as the dollar weakened. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support at 148.6. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance at 156.7.
The BOJ raised its interest rate by 25 basis points in January, from 0.25% to 0.50%, its highest level since 2008. In addition, the BOJ adjusted its inflation projections upward, to reflect the depreciation of the yen and rising oil prices, hinting at more rate hikes down the road. Policymakers expect Japan’s inflation to rise to 2.4% in 2025, up from previous estimates of 1.9%, and above the central bank’s 2% target.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if Japan’s economy continues to improve and the BOJ 2% inflation target is reached. Ueda emphasized, however, that the timeline of future rate hikes will depend on economic and inflationary conditions. Ueda met with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Thursday to discuss the state of Japan’s economy, but Ueda stated that they did not discuss the BOJ interest rate outlook. Last week, increased expectations that the BOJ will hike interest rates, boosted the Yen. Markets currently anticipate that the BOJ will raise interest rates to a peak interest of 1.00% over the next two years.
Inflation in Japan is on the rise, raising the odds of future rate hikes and providing support for the Yen. The headline Tokyo CPI inflation rose to 3.4% annually in January from 3.0% in December. National Core inflation in Japan rose by 3.2% year-on-year in January from 3.0% in December against expectations of a 3.1% print. In addition, BOJ Core CPI rose to 1.7% year-on-year in November from 1.5% in October. This week, further inflationary indicators are coming up for Japan and are likely to show that inflationary pressures are rising.
Preliminary GDP data were released on Monday for the final quarter of 2024 and showed that the Japanese economy expanded by 0.7% against the expectation of 0.3% growth. Final GDP data for the third quarter of 2024 showed that Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3%, down from 0.7% in the second quarter.
Gold prices crossed the key $2,950 per ounce barrier last week, registering a new all-time high of $2,955 per ounce. Gold prices pared gains later, ending the week near $2,940 per ounce. If gold prices rise, they may encounter resistance at $2,955 per ounce, while if gold prices decline, support may be encountered near $2,850 per ounce.
Gold prices reached a new all-time high of $2,955 per ounce on Thursday but could not maintain their bullish momentum and dipped later. Gold prices are trading in overbought conditions but are still likely to rise to new record highs in the following days as demand for safe-haven assets remains elevated.
Uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s future policies and trade tariffs promotes a risk aversion sentiment, raising the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as gold. Concerns that Trump’s trade policies may ignite global trading wars are raising the appeal of gold.
US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Tuesday, Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on foreign cars and semiconductor chips. If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise and the economic outlook will worsen, thus promoting a risk aversion sentiment that boosts safe-haven assets.
Gold prices have been typically directed by the dollar’s movement, as the competing gold typically loses appeal as an investment when the dollar rises. The dollar dipped last week and the index dropped from 107.3 to 106.2. US treasury yields also declined, putting pressure on the dollar, with the US 10-year bond yield dropping from 4.56% to 4.43%.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday but the meeting was fruitless, boosting safe-haven assets. Hopes that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine might finally end, however, dropped as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy refused to attend the meeting. Zelenskiy stated that fair negotiations to end the war should involve Ukraine and the EU. The Russian side has also toughened its stance, stating that further meetings between Trump and Putin are not currently necessary due to unresolved Russian demands regarding Ukraine’s pending membership in NATO. At the same time, Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged a key Russian oil pipeline in Kazakhstan, disrupting oil supply and boosting oil prices.
Gold prices are under pressure by decreased Fed rate cut expectations. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Markets odds of rate cuts within the year are currently between 25 and 50 basis points as inflationary pressures remain high.
The minutes of the January FOMC meeting were released on Wednesday and were overall hawkish, lowering Fed rate cut expectations. Policymakers were concerned with the impact that trade tariffs might have on US inflation and some Fed members stated that some measures of inflation had increased recently.
Oil prices were volatile last week and WTI price rose from $70.6 to $73.1 per barrel, then pared the week’s gains, closing near $70.3 per barrel on Friday. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $70.0 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $74.1 per barrel.
US crude oil inventories released on Thursday showed that US crude stockpiles exceeded expectations, putting pressure on oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a weekly crude stockpile build of 4.6M barrels for the week to February 14, exceeding expectations of 3.2M barrel growth and following a rise of 4.1M barrels the week before.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, but the meeting was fruitless, driving oil prices up. Hopes that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine might finally end, however, dropped as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy refused to attend the meeting. Zelenskiy stated that fair negotiations to end the war should involve Ukraine and the EU. The Russian side has also toughened its stance, stating that further meetings between Trump and Putin are not currently necessary due to unresolved Russian demands regarding Ukraine’s pending membership in NATO.
Ukraine attacked Russia’s oil infrastructure earlier this week, raising concerns that the supply chain from Russia might be disrupted and boosting oil prices. A Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian pipeline in Kazakhstan on Tuesday led to a loss of oil flows of approximately 30%-40% for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.
Oil prices are under pressure by concerns over Trump’s energy agenda. Trump has vowed to declare a national energy emergency and start drilling for oil immediately to build up US strategic reserves.
US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Tuesday, Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on foreign cars and semiconductor chips. If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise and the economic outlook will worsen, putting pressure on oil prices.
Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The minutes of the January FOMC meeting were released on Wednesday and were overall hawkish, lowering Fed rate cut expectations. Policymakers were concerned with the impact that trade tariffs might have on US inflation and some Fed members stated that some measures of inflation had increased recently.
Supply concerns are providing support for oil prices, however. US President Donald Trump has imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The Iranian government has urged OPEC members to take united action against the US sanctions, while the US President is pressuring Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output to make up for the deficit that will be created by the sanctions.
OPEC+ has announced that it will extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025, however. Oil prices have been under pressure and the cartel is limiting production in an attempt to raise oil prices.
Bitcoin price surged from $96,300 to $99,300 early last week, then plunged to $95,700 over the weekend. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $93,000, while resistance may be encountered at $99,300.
Ethereum edged higher last week, rising from $2,670 to $2,780. If Ethereum's price declines, it may encounter support near $2,480, while if it increases, resistance may be encountered near $2,840.
Bitcoin price registered a new all-time high of $109,880 in January but has since been under pressure by increased risk aversion sentiment. Most major cryptocurrencies are under pressure on concerns that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may start global trading wars. Bitcoin price dropped as low as $93,200 earlier this week but has rallied since, rising above the $98,000 level and flirting with the key $100,000 level.
Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. The uncertainty over Trump’s future policies and trade tariffs is generating a risk aversion sentiment, putting pressure on crypto markets.
Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Tuesday, Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on foreign cars and semiconductor chips. If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise and the economic outlook will worsen, thus promoting a risk aversion sentiment, which puts pressure on crypto markets.
Increased geopolitical tensions are driving risk sentiment down, putting pressure on high-risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies. US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, but the meeting was fruitless. Hopes that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine might finally end, however, dropped as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy refused to attend the meeting. Zelenskiy stated that fair negotiations to end the war should involve Ukraine and the EU. The Russian side has also toughened its stance, stating that further meetings between Trump and Putin are not currently necessary due to unresolved Russian demands regarding Ukraine’s pending membership in NATO.
Trump’s proposed plans for building a Bitcoin strategic reserve have been boosting Bitcoin price. Growing expectations that the US government will adopt a pro-crypto regulatory and fiscal policy are boosting crypto markets.
Cryptocurrency prices are also affected by central banks’ interest rates. High interest rates stifle economic growth, putting pressure on crypto markets. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting, after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50.
The minutes of the January FOMC meeting were released on Wednesday and were overall hawkish, lowering Fed rate cut expectations. Policymakers were concerned with the impact that trade tariffs might have on US inflation and some Fed members stated that some measures of inflation had increased recently.
BTC/USD 1h Chart
ETH/USD 1h Chart
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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli
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