Important calendar events
The dollar experienced some volatility last week, and the dollar index slipped from 98.1 to 98.8 early in the week but plummeted to 97.8 on Friday as the Fed turned dovish. U.S. Treasury yields dipped on renewed Fed rate cut expectations, with the 10-year bond yield rising from 4.34% to 4.26%.
The Fed held rates steady at its July policy meeting, as expected, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference. Powell acknowledged progress on disinflation but emphasized the need for more data before considering rate cuts.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been amping up the pressure on the Fed to resume rate cuts. On Wednesday, reports that Trump is undermining the Fed’s independence by trying to replace Fed Governor Lisa Cook, put pressure on the dollar.
At the same time, the minutes of July’s FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that almost all policymakers were in agreement about keeping rates steady at July’s meeting. The hawkish Fed minutes provided some support for the dollar mid-week.
Powell’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday indicated a dovish shift in the Fed’s outlook, putting pressure on the dollar. Powell flagged rising labor market downside risks and indicated that current conditions may warrant rate cuts. Markets priced in a firmer easing path this year following Powell’s speech. Odds of a 25 bp September rate cut jumped from approximately 73% before the speech to 83% after. At the same time, expectations of cumulative easing by year-end rose from ~48 bps to ~55 bps, putting pressure on the dollar.
On the data front, U.S. flash Manufacturing and Services PMI came in stronger than expected, dialing back Fed rate cut expectations and boosting the dollar.
U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly jumped to 53.3 in August, up sharply from a contracting 49.8 in July and well above expectations of 49.7.
Flash Services PMI dipped slightly to 55.4, while July’s print was revised upward to 55.7, falling slightly short of the forecasted 54.2, though remaining in the expansion zone.
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in July, easing from June’s 0.3% print. July’s U.S. headline inflation remained steady at 2.7% year-on-year, versus 2.8% expected. Core CPI went up to 3.1% annually from 2.9% previously, versus 3.0% anticipated. Core CPI rose by 0.3% monthly, marking the largest gain in six months.
Advance GDP data for the second quarter of 2025 showed that the U.S. economy is rebounding. The GDP data showed robust 3.0% annual growth, coming in above estimates of 2.4% and reversing the first quarter’s 0.5% decline. The stronger GDP print boosted the dollar as it suggested increased economic growth.
This coming week, the following U.S. economic data releases are highly anticipated and may affect the dollar:
EUR/USD slipped from 1.170 to 1.159 early last week but rallied on Friday, surging to 1.171. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.139, while resistance may be encountered near 1.178.
The European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady at 2% in July, after cutting rates eight consecutive times. The Euro gained strength after the ECB policy meeting, countering the dollar’s rally. The ECB held rates steady, as expected, but struck a cautious tone, acknowledging progress on inflation but warning of the possible effects of trade tariffs. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the central bank monitors rates rather than targeting them, and that policymakers intend to work with the data that comes in moving forward.
However, weak Euro area economic growth has led to market speculation that the ECB might adopt a more dovish approach, potentially leading to rate cuts later in the year.
Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium over the weekend, Lagarde emphasized that Europe’s labor market remains resilient, despite soaring inflation. Markets' expectations of an ECB September rate cut are currently below 20%, while odds of a rate cut by year-end remain below 50%.
Flash GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2025 showed only modest growth of 0.1% in the Euro area, which was in line with expectations, with year-on-year GDP growth at 1.4%. Overall, weakening confidence and sluggish growth kept the Euro under pressure last week.
Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2025 was revised upward to reflect 0.6% expansion, up from 0.3% previously, beating the 0.4% consensus. The upward revision highlights resilience amid global trade headwinds.
EU flash CPI data showed that inflationary pressures in the Euro Area remain sticky, reinforcing the ECB’s decision to pause rate cuts and keeping future rate cut odds low. EU flash CPI came in at 2.0% year-on-year in July, matching June’s print and just above expectations of 1.9%, aligning with the ECB’s target and reducing immediate pressure for further easing. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.3% annually in July as forecasted.
GBP/USD slipped from 1.355 to 1.338 last week but pared losses on Friday, rising to 1.354. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.360, while support may be found near 1.313.
The Bank of England (BOE) lowered its base rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% at its August policy meeting, but the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was deeply divided. The central bank narrowly passed the decision in a tight 5-4 vote after two rounds—a historic first for the MPC, with four members voting in favor of keeping rates steady.
BOE Governor Bailey warned against cutting rates too soon, urging patience moving forward. Bailey highlighted that inflation and wage pressures are easing, but warned that uncertainty remains, especially with rising food and energy costs affecting consumer expectations.
At the Jackson Hole Symposium over the weekend, Bailey delivered a speech emphasizing the need for caution in monetary policy. He highlighted that while inflation has been decreasing, it remains above the Bank's target, and economic conditions warrant a careful approach to interest rate adjustments. Bailey also warned about the UK’s low economic growth outlook and weak labor market.
UK GDP rose by 0.4% in June, beating estimates of 0.2% growth, as well as May’s dismal print showing 0.1% contraction. Preliminary quarterly GDP data showed that the British economy expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter of the year against just 0.1% growth anticipated, indicating the economy is slowly expanding.
Headline CPI rose to 3.8% year-on-year in July, up from 3.6% in June and beating expectations of 3.7%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also climbed to 3.8% annually in July, above June’s 3.7% and expectations of 3.7%.
USD/JPY traded sideways last week, oscillating around 147.3 to 148.7 last week, then erased the week’s gains on Friday, plummeting to 146.7. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support at 145.7. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance at 150.9.
The BOJ left rates unchanged at its July meeting, as expected, and signaled it’s in no hurry to tighten further. The BOJ raised its inflation forecast, hinting at a tightening path ahead, although the timing of future rate hikes has yet to be determined.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledged that price pressures are gradually firming and suggested that another rate hike remains on the table.
At the Jackson Hole this past weekend, Ueda highlighted that Japan’s labor market remains tight, with wage growth spreading from large firms to smaller businesses. He signaled that, unless a major negative shock hits demand, upward pressure on wages is likely to persist.
Markets reacted by lifting expectations for a BOJ rate hike later this year and pricing in a 25 bp rate increase by year-end. The Yen strengthened modestly as traders priced in a higher probability of monetary tightening.
Preliminary GDP data for the second quarter of 2025 showed that Japan’s economy is more resilient than anticipated. GDP rose 0.3% in Q2 of the year, approximately 1.0% annualized, beating market estimates of 0.1%.
The Yen weakened last week, as signs that inflation in Japan is cooling reduced BOJ rate hikes. Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% Year-on-year in July, from 3.3% previously, exceeding, however, expectations of a 3.0% print. Tokyo core CPI came in at 2.9% year-on-year in July from 3.1% year-on-year in June, suggesting cooling price pressures.
Japan's economy remained stagnant in the first quarter of 2025, exceeding the anticipated 0.2% decline. On an annualized basis, GDP shrank by 0.2%, compared to -0.7% in the previous reading. The BOJ may delay interest rate hikes further to support the country’s weakening economy, especially if trade tensions rise.
Gold traded in a tight range close to $3,330 per ounce early last week, then surged to $3,370 per ounce on Friday, benefiting from the dollar’s decline. If gold prices rise, they may encounter resistance at $3,440 per ounce, while if gold prices decline, support may be encountered near $3,268 per ounce.
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly intending to arrange a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump has already met with the Russian and Ukrainian presidents separately, without much success, so far, in brokering a peace treaty between the two countries.
Trump told Zelenskiy the U.S. would help assure security guarantees, with Kyiv saying details could be finalized within about 10 days. Renewed hopes that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine might de-escalate lowered demand for safe-haven assets early last week, bringing gold prices down.
Later in the week, however, the Kremlin downplayed any imminent summit, raising safe haven demand and boosting gold prices. Trump has warned that Putin may not want to strike a deal, even as he continues pressing Zelenskiy for security talks.
Gold prices have been typically directed by the dollar’s movement, as the competing gold typically loses appeal as an investment when the dollar rises. The dollar experienced some volatility last week, and the dollar index slipped from 98.1 to 98.8 early last week but plummeted to 97.8 on Friday as the Fed turned dovish. U.S. Treasury yields dipped on renewed Fed rate cut expectations, with the 10-year bond yield rising from 4.34% to 4.26%.
Gold prices are supported by rising Fed rate cut expectations. The Fed held rates steady at its policy meeting in July, as expected, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference, boosting the dollar.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been amping up the pressure on the Fed to resume rate cuts. On Wednesday, reports that Trump is undermining the Fed’s independence, by trying to replace Fed Governor Lisa Cook, put pressure on the dollar, boosting the rival gold.
At the same time, the minutes of July’s FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that almost all policymakers were in agreement about keeping rates steady at July’s meeting. The hawkish Fed minutes provided some support for the dollar mid-week, capping gold’s gains.
Powell’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday indicated a dovish shift in the Fed’s outlook, putting pressure on the dollar. Powell flagged rising labor market downside risks and indicated that current conditions may warrant rate cuts. Markets priced in a firmer easing path this year following Powell’s speech. Odds of a 25 bp September rate cut jumped from approximately 73% before the speech to 83% after. At the same time, expectations of cumulative easing by year-end rose from ~48 bps to ~55 bps, boosting gold prices.
Oil prices were bullish last week, with the WTI price rising from $63.0 to $64.6 per barrel. If WTI price retreats, it may encounter support near $62.1 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $71.3 per barrel.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprise draw of 6.0 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week to August 15. The large stockpile draw far exceeded forecasts of 0.6M barrels draw and the previous week’s 3.0M barrels build, putting pressure on oil prices.
Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. The Fed held rates steady at its policy meeting in July, as expected, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference, boosting the dollar.
Powell’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday indicated a dovish shift in the Fed’s outlook, putting pressure on the dollar. Powell flagged rising labor market downside risks and indicated that current conditions may warrant rate cuts. Markets priced in a firmer easing path this year following Powell’s speech. Odds of a 25 bp September rate cut jumped from approximately 73% before the speech to 83% after. At the same time, expectations of cumulative easing by year-end rose from ~48 bps to ~55 bps, boosting gold prices.
OPEC+ has raised its oil production for August by 548,000 bpd, well above the prior 411,000 bpd. This supply boost signals the cartel’s intent to allow oil prices to ease amid growing concerns over weakening global demand and trade uncertainties.
Bitcoin price dipped from 115,000, $111,500 last week, then surged above $117,000 on Friday, but dropped again to $113,000 over the weekend, on profit taking. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $111,000, while resistance may be encountered at the all-time high of $124,400.
Ethereum was rangebound early last week, trading close to $4,250, but surged on Friday and reached a new record high of $4,945 over the weekend. If the Ethereum price declines, it may encounter support near $3,340, while if it increases, it may encounter resistance near $5,000.
Bitcoin price reached an all-time high above $124,400 earlier this month but has been under pressure since then. Bitcoin rallied again on Friday, rising above 117,000, but plummeted over the weekend, as many traders rushed to realize their gains.
Ethereum gained strength last week, registering a new all-time high of $4,945 over the weekend. Ethereum’s rally was driven by increased institutional interest, including significant investments from Peter Thiel and other investors.. Additionally, renewed anticipation of potential Fed interest rate cuts, following Jerome Powell's dovish comments at the Jackson Hole symposium, further fueled the rally.
Cryptocurrency prices are also affected by central banks’ interest rates. The Fed held rates steady at its policy meeting in July, as expected, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference, boosting the dollar.
Powell’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday indicated a dovish shift in the Fed’s outlook, putting pressure on the dollar. Powell flagged rising labor market downside risks and indicated that current conditions may warrant rate cuts. Markets priced in a firmer easing path this year following Powell’s speech. Odds of a 25 bp September rate cut jumped from approximately 73% before the speech to 83% after. At the same time, expectations of cumulative easing by year-end rose from ~48 bps to ~55 bps, boosting gold prices.
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly intending to arrange a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump has already met with the Russian and Ukrainian presidents separately, without much success, so far, in brokering a peace treaty between the two countries.
Trump told Zelenskiy the U.S. would help assure security guarantees, with Kyiv saying details could be finalized within about 10 days. Renewed hopes that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine might de-escalate, lowered demand for safe haven assets, early last week, bringing gold prices down.
Later in the week, however, the Kremlin downplayed any imminent summit, fueling speculation and keeping markets alert to the shifting risk environment. Trump has warned that Putin may not want to strike a deal, even as he continues pressing Zelenskiy for security talks.
BTC/USD 1h Chart
ETH/USD 1h Chart
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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli
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