Dollar dips as geopolitical tensions ease

Important calendar events

• EUR: Flash Employment Change, Flash GDP
• USD: Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, Import Prices, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production, Business Inventories 

USD

The dollar slipped on Thursday and the index dropped from 107.9 to 107.3. US treasury yields declined, with the US 10-year bond yield falling from 4.62% to 4.53%. 

On Thursday, reports that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to initiate negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, eased geopolitical tensions. Hopes that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine might finally end, reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets on Thursday, putting pressure on the dollar.

The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. 

The Fed’s latest monetary policy statement did not include an earlier mention that US inflation is moving towards the central bank’s 2% target. Instead, the report stated that price pressures remain elevated, which points to a prolonged pause in rate cuts. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a mildly hawkish message after the policy meeting, stating that the Fed’s approach will remain data-driven and stressed that the central bank needs to consider potential policy changes under Trump’s administration. Market odds of another rate cut dropped after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in only a single 25bps rate cut within the year as inflationary pressures remain high. Concerns that inflation may rise again if trade wars break out have pushed the timeline of policy normalization back to 2026. 

On Tuesday, Powell testified about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. Powell’s speech was hawkish, hinting that the Fed may pause rate cuts for some time. Powell stated that the US economy is robust, while at the same time, inflation remains elevated, indicating that interest rates will remain at restrictive levels for longer than originally anticipated. Powell refused to comment on how the new US government’s tariff policies are affecting the US economy and the pace of monetary policy normalization but stated that the US President is forbidden by law to remove a Fed board member. Powell completed his two-day semiannual Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday, with a testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell stressed that the battle against inflation is ongoing and stated that he does not intend to resign if asked to by Trump.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that interest rates should be lowered and that they should go hand in hand with trade tariffs. His statement, however, was given before the release of the US CPI data on Wednesday that showed that inflation in the US is on the rise. 

Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. On Monday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports for all countries importing into the US, raising concerns over global trade wars. Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Thursday, Trump signed an order to his staff to develop custom tariffs for each country, stating “Whatever they charge us, we will charge them”.

If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise and the economic outlook will worsen, thus promoting a risk aversion sentiment that boosts safe-haven assets. Concerns that US inflation will rise again are raising the likelihood that interest rates will remain at restrictive levels for longer, lowering expectations of future rate cuts.

On the data front, The US inflation report released this week showed that inflation in the US is on the rise. US inflation data released on Wednesday were hotter than anticipated, indicating that inflationary pressures are on the rise and lowering Fed rate cut expectations. Headline inflation rose by 3.0% year-on-year in January after rising by 2.9% in December against expectations of a 2.9% print. Monthly inflation rose sharply by 0.5% in January after rising 0.4% in December against a 0.3% rise anticipated. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.4% in January, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and following a 0.2% rise in December. Core CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in January, against 3a .2% gain in December.

Producer Price Index data on Thursday showed an uptick in producer inflation in January. PPI rose by 3.5% year-on-year in January, following a 3.3% increase in December and exceeding expectations of 3.2%. Every month, the PPI rose by 0.4% in January against the 0.3% anticipated, while December’s print was revised upward to reflect 0.5% growth. Annual Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.6% in January, surpassing analysts' estimate of 3.3%. 

Meanwhile, US Unemployment Claims on Thursday fell to 213K for the week ending February 8 from 220K and came in below expectations of 217K.

Advance GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the US economy expanded by 2.3%, following a 3.1% expansion in the third quarter of 2024 and falling below market estimates of 2.7% growth. In addition, the US economy expanded by 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024 and by 1.4% in the first quarter.

US Retail sales data on Friday will provide information on the health of the US economy. 

TRADE USD PAIRS

EUR 

EUR/USD gained strength on Thursday, testing the 1.046 level resistance. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.027, while resistance may be encountered near 1.046 and further up at 1.053.

The ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in January, bringing its main refinancing rate down to 2.90% from 3.15%. The central bank is currently expected to cut interest rates up to four more times in 2025, to a total of 125bps, until neutral policy settings are reached. Expectations that the ECB will return to a more normalized policy setting sooner than the Fed are putting pressure on the EUR/USD rate.

In her speech after the policy meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that EU policymakers will not commit to a predefined rate cut path and that the central bank’s policy will remain data-driven. 

Lagarde also commented on the Eurozone GDP data released earlier on Thursday that showed that the EU economy is stagnant, stating that the ECB expects the economy to remain weak for some time. She also hinted that the trade tariffs that the US might impose may hinder economic growth and warned that increased friction in global trade could weigh on the Eurozone’s economy. Lagarde, however, denied that there is a danger of stagflation, the toxic economic mix of stagnating economy and high inflation. Lagarde admitted that inflation in the Eurozone is expected to hover around the current levels in the short term but appeared confident that inflation will come down to the central bank’s 2% target within the year. 

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose trade tariffs on the EU. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated on Sunday that the European Union is ready to act immediately if Trump imposes traded tariffs on the EU. On Monday, Christine Lagarde reassured markets that Eurozone inflation is on track to reach the ECB’s 2% target within the year. On Tuesday, European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen, reacting to Trump’s threats to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, said that the EU would be forced to take counter-measures.

EU CPI Flash Estimate data showed that Eurozone inflation remains above the ECB’s 2% target and may prevent the ECB from cutting interest rates further. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.5% year-on-year in January from 2.4% in December. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.7% in January.

Preliminary Flash GDP data showed that the Eurozone economy remained stagnant in the final quarter of 2024 after expanding by 0.3% in the second quarter, raising concerns about stagflation in the EU. The economic outlook of the EU remains fragile as prolonged tightening has brought the Euro area economy to the brink of recession.

TRADE EUR PAIRS

GBP 

GBP/USD continued to gain strength on Thursday, rising from 1.244 to 1.256 as the dollar weakened. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.261, while support may be found near 1.233.  

GDP data released on Thursday for the UK were more optimistic than anticipated, indicating that the British economy is starting to recover. The British economy expanded by 0.4% in December, following expansion by 0.1% in November and exceeding expectations of a 0.1% print. Preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the British economy expanded by 0.1% against estimates of 0.1% contraction and following economic stagnation in the third quarter of 2024. 

The Index of services came in at 0.2% for the three months ending December, against expectations of 0.1% growth and a previous reading of 0%. British Industrial Production expanded by 0.5% in December, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. Manufacturing Production grew by 0.7% in December against estimates of stagnation. 

BOE policymakers cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week and the Official Bank Rate was reduced from 4.75% to 4.5%. Seven out of nine MPC members voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, while surprisingly, the other two members were more dovish, voting for a 50bps rate cut. 

One of the two MPC members who voted in favor of a larger rate cut was Catherine Mann, who had so far been known for her hawkish stance. Catherine Mann gave an interview with the Financial Times on Tuesday, explaining her reasons for her shift to a dovish stance. Mann said that the 50 bps rate cut vote was a way to communicate to traders about the appropriate conditions for the UK economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivered a speech that had dovish undertones, hinting at further rate cuts. Bailey, however, stressed that the BOE will need to decide on its policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis and refused to commit to a timeline or magnitude of future rate cuts.  Market expectations of future BOE rate cuts rose after the policy meeting, pricing in 65bps of easing by the end of 2025.

In addition, the BOE updated its economic forecasts after the policy meeting. The central bank currently anticipates that the British economy will grow by 0.75% by the end of 2025 and inflation will rise from 2.5% to 3.7%. Bailey stressed that even though the BOE anticipates a rise in inflation in the coming months, this does not warrant a more restrictive monetary policy. 

Price pressures in the UK are easing, raising the odds of a BOE rate cut in February and providing support for the Sterling. Headline inflation in the UK rose to 2.5% year-on-year in December, dropping from 2.6% in November. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.2% annually in December, against a 3.5% reading in November. 

TRADE GBP PAIRS

JPY

The Yen benefitted from the dollar’s weakness on Thursday USD/JPY dropped from 154.4 to 152.8. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support at 150.9. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance at 155.5. 

The BOJ raised its interest rate by 25 basis points in January, from 0.25% to 0.50%, its highest level since 2008. In addition, the BOJ adjusted its inflation projections upward, to reflect the depreciation of the yen and rising oil prices, hinting at more rate hikes down the road. Policymakers expect Japan’s inflation to rise to 2.4% in 2025, up from previous estimates of 1.9%, and above the central bank’s 2% target. 

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if Japan’s economy continues to improve and the BOJ 2% inflation target is reached. Ueda emphasized, however, that the timeline of future rate hikes will depend on economic and inflationary conditions. Markets currently anticipate that the BOJ will raise interest rates to a peak interest of 1.00% over the next two years.

Inflation in Japan is on the rise, raising the odds of future rate hikes and providing support for the Yen. The headline Tokyo CPI inflation rose to 3.4% annually in January from 3.0% in December. Headline inflation in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in December from 2.7% in November. In addition, BOJ Core CPI rose to 1.7% year-on-year in November from 1.5% in October. 

Final GDP data for the third quarter of 2024 showed that Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3%, down from 0.7% in the second quarter. The Japanese economy is expanding, after shrinking by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024.

TRADE JPY PAIRS

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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