Crypto markets under pressure by declining global economic outlook

Bitcoin dipped from $83,500 to 80,600 on Thursday on declining global economic outlook. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $76,400, while resistance may be encountered at $92,800. 

Ethereum price also declined on Thursday, dropping from $1,900 to 1,840. If Ethereum price declines, it may encounter support near $1,760, while if it increases, it may encounter resistance near $2,300.

Bitcoin price registered a new all-time high of $109,135 in January but has since been under pressure by increased risk aversion sentiment. Expectations of a crypto-friendly US policy are providing support for crypto markets even as imminent global trade wars push crypto prices down. Bitcoin lost more than a quarter of its value since Trump’s inauguration, which marked its all-time high, and the crypto market capitalization decreased by almost a trillion in the past month.

Most major cryptocurrencies are under pressure due to concerns that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may start global trading wars. On Tuesday, the White House announced a global 25% tariff on global steel and aluminum imports to the US that would take effect on Wednesday. Moreover, Trump announced on his social media that he would impose a double tariff of 50% on aluminum and steel products from Canada. Trump backpedaled on his threats to impose double tariffs on Canada, however, just a few hours later. Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. The uncertainty over Trump’s future policies and trade tariffs is generating a risk aversion sentiment, putting pressure on crypto markets. Trump’s tariffs are likely to raise global inflation and lower economic outlook, thus promoting a risk aversion sentiment that puts pressure on crypto markets.

Trump’s economic policies are raising concerns that the US economic growth will slow down. Many analysts are already expressing concerns that the US will enter recession. Trump tried to downplay recession risks in an interview with Fox News over the weekend. Trump carefully avoided the word recession, stating instead that the US economy is in a period of transition.

US President Donald Trump hosted last week the first White House crypto summit in history, which was attended by major members of the crypto industry, including prominent founders, CEOs and investors. Trump announced the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve ahead of the White House crypto summit, stressing his determination to make the US the crypto capital of the world. The US reserve will be created with Bitcoin already owned by the federal government through seizures due to criminal activities, according to a statement by crypto Czar David Sacks. Fron now on, the US government will cease to sell Bitcoin and will stockpile it instead as a store of value. Bitcoin price, however, continued to retreat after Trump’s launch of a US Bitcoin reserve, as global economic concerns have lowered risk appetite. 

Cryptocurrency prices are also affected by central banks’ interest rates. High interest rates stifle economic growth, putting pressure on crypto markets. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting, after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. 

Increased Fed rate cut expectations are boosting crypto markets this week. Fed rate cut expectations rose after the release of the US inflation report on Wednesday. Markets are currently pricing in three rate cuts in 2025, with the first rate cut in June, compared to just two rate cuts the week before.

BTC/USD 1h Chart

ETH/USD 1h Chart

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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