Oil prices rise on Russia supply concerns

Oil prices remained bullish on Thursday and WTI price rose from $72.1 to $72.8 per barrel. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $70.0 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $74.1 per barrel.

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, but the meeting was fruitless, driving oil prices up. Hopes that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine might finally end, however, dropped as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy refused to attend the meeting. Zelenskiy stated that fair negotiations to end the war should involve Ukraine and the EU. The Russian side has also toughened its stance, stating that further meetings between Trump and Putin are not currently necessary due to unresolved Russian demands regarding Ukraine’s pending membership in NATO. 

Ukraine attacked Russia’s oil infrastructure earlier this week, raising concerns that the supply chain from Russia might be disrupted and boosting oil prices. A Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian pipeline in Kazakhstan on Tuesday led to a loss of oil flows of approximately 30%-40% for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.

Oil prices are under pressure by concerns over Trump’s energy agenda. Trump has vowed to declare a national energy emergency and start drilling for oil immediately to build up US strategic reserves. 

US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Tuesday, Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on foreign cars and semiconductor chips. If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise and the economic outlook will worsen, putting pressure on oil prices. 

Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The minutes of the January FOMC meeting were released on Wednesday and were overall hawkish, lowering Fed rate cut expectations. Policymakers were concerned with the impact that trade tariffs might have on US inflation and some Fed members stated that some measures of inflation had increased recently.

Supply concerns are providing support for oil prices, however. US President Donald Trump has imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The Iranian government has urged OPEC members to take united action against the US sanctions, while the US President is pressuring Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output to make up for the deficit that will be created by the sanctions. 

OPEC+ has announced that it will extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025, however. Oil prices have been under pressure and the cartel is limiting production in an attempt to raise oil prices.

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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