Important calendar events
The dollar gained strength mid-week with the dollar index rising to 98.5, but dipped to 97.4 on Friday. U.S. treasury yields sank last week, with the 10-year bond yield dipping from 4.28% to 4.07%.
U.S. President Donald Trump recently fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed’s independence. Current White House advisor and Fed nominee Stephen Miran argued before a Senate panel on Thursday that he is not Trump’s puppet, but failed to quell concerns over the Fed’s future independence from Trump’s reach.
The Fed held rates steady at 4.25-4.50% in July, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference. Powell acknowledged progress on disinflation but emphasized the need for more data before considering rate cuts.
Disappointing U.S. labor data put pressure on the dollar last week. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported on Wednesday that the U.S. economy added 7.18 million jobs in July, below the estimated 7.38 million. At the same time, June’s print was revised downward to show 7.36M job openings. U.S. ADP non-farm employment rose by 54K in August, following a 106K growth in July, and came in below market expectations of 65K.
Non-farm Payrolls (NFPs) released on Friday were also disappointing, causing the dollar to plummet. The NFP report revealed that the U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the forecast of 75,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 % in August from 4.2% in July, which was in line with expectations. Average Hourly Earnings, which are a measure of wage inflation, declined to 3.7% year-on-year from 3.9% previously.
The NFP report is the most important indicator of job and wage growth, and Friday’s weak print reinforced Fed rate cut expectations, weighing on the dollar and Treasury yields. Odds of a September rate cut jumped from approximately 84% before the release of the NFP report to 98% after, with some analysts even eyeing a possible 50-bps cut.
Advance GDP data for the second quarter of 2025 showed that the U.S. economy is rebounding. The GDP data showed robust 3.0% annual growth, coming in above estimates of 2.4% and reversing the first quarter’s 0.5% decline. The stronger GDP print boosted the dollar as it suggested increased economic growth.
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in July, easing from June’s 0.3% print. July’s U.S. headline inflation remained steady at 2.7% year-on-year, versus 2.8% expected. Core CPI went up to 3.1% annually from 2.9% previously, versus 3.0% anticipated. Core CPI rose by 0.3% monthly, marking the largest gain in six months.
This coming week, the most highly anticipated fundamentals are the U.S. PPI and CPI inflation data due on September 10 and 11, respectively. Markets expect August’s CPI to rise by 0.3%, bringing annual headline inflation up to 2.9% from 2.7 previously. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is likely to remain steady around 3.1%. Should inflation print higher than forecast, the dollar would likely strengthen on reduced Fed rate cut expectations. A softer reading, on the other hand, might put downward pressure on the dollar.
EUR/USD slipped from 1.173 to 1.161 early last week but pared gains later in the week, rising back to 1.173. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.152, while resistance may be encountered near 1.175.
The Euro was bolstered by upbeat data last week, indicating that economic activity in the Eurozone is gaining momentum. Euro area Final Manufacturing PMI for August came in at 50.7, surpassing estimates of a 50.5 print as well as July’s 50.5 reading, indicating that the EU manufacturing sector is expanding at an accelerated pace. Conversely, EU Final Services PMI slowed down to 50.5 in August from 50.7 in July, showing that the services sector continues to expand but at a reduced pace.
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index ticked higher to 89.0 in August, edging up from 88.6 in July, as business expectations improved. Belgium’s NBB Business Climate remained weak, holding in negative territory at -14.3, though still slightly better than the prior -15.1, suggesting sentiment is stabilizing at low levels.
The European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady at 2% in July, after cutting rates eight consecutive times. The Euro gained strength after the ECB policy meeting, countering the dollar’s rally. The ECB held rates steady, as expected, but struck a cautious tone, acknowledging progress on inflation but warning of the possible effects of trade tariffs. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the central bank monitors rates rather than targeting them, and that policymakers intend to work with the data that comes in moving forward.
Weak Euro area economic growth has led to market speculation that the ECB might adopt a more dovish approach, potentially leading to rate cuts later in the year.
The next ECB rate decision is scheduled for this week, September 11, with markets leaning toward no immediate rate cut but keeping a December move on the table. Inflation in the eurozone has eased, yet not enough to give policymakers confidence to cut rates further.
Markets expect a cautious tone from Christine Lagarde, emphasizing data dependence while signaling readiness to ease rates if economic growth continues to falter. Any dovish bias may put pressure on the Euro, especially if the Fed maintains a more patient stance, widening the policy gap.
Flash GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2025 showed only modest growth of 0.1% in the Euro area, which was in line with expectations, with year-on-year GDP growth at 1.4%. Overall, weakening confidence and sluggish growth kept the Euro under pressure last week.
Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2025 was revised upward to reflect 0.6% expansion, up from 0.3% previously, beating the 0.4% consensus. The upward revision highlights resilience amid global trade headwinds.
EU flash CPI data showed that inflationary pressures in the Euro Area remain sticky, reinforcing the ECB’s decision to pause rate cuts and keeping future rate cut odds low. EU flash CPI came in at 2.1% year-on-year in August, up from 2.0% in July, slightly exceeding the ECB’s 2.0% target. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.3% annually in August, beating expectations of a 2.2% print.
GBP/USD oscillated around the 1.346 level last week, finally settling near 147.4 on Friday. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.360, while support may be found near 1.313.
The Sterling plummeted last week, after the UK 30-year Gilt rose to 5.697%, its highest level since May 1998. UK government borrowing costs rose to 27-year highs due to concerns about fiscal and political stability. Even though the dollar retreated last week, GBP/USD remained steady despite the Sterling’s decline.
British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will release the Autumn Budget next month, in which she is expected to raise taxation, which might hurt the country’s economic growth. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reshuffled his cabinet ministers over the weekend. This may give rise to concerns about the government’s stability and cause volatility in the Sterling on Monday, as markets begin to digest the news.
The Bank of England (BOE) lowered its base rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% at its August policy meeting, but the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was deeply divided. The central bank narrowly passed the decision in a tight 5-4 vote after two rounds—a historic first for the MPC, with four members voting in favor of keeping rates steady.
BOE Governor Bailey has warned against cutting rates too soon, urging patience moving forward. Bailey highlighted that inflation and wage pressures are easing, but warned that uncertainty remains, especially with rising food and energy costs affecting consumer expectations.
In his testimony before the Treasury Select Committee last week, Bailey stated that while interest rates are expected to move downwards gradually over time, downside job risks are introducing an element of uncertainty over the timing of further cuts. Markets dialed back expectations for additional easing this year after Bailey’s testimony. Another rate cut before year-end is now seen as unlikely, a nd the next BOE rate cut is not priced in before April 2026.
Headline CPI rose to 3.8% year-on-year in July, up from 3.6% in June and beating expectations of 3.7%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also climbed to 3.8% annually in July, above June’s 3.7% and expectations of 3.7%.
UK GDP rose by 0.4% in June, beating estimates of 0.2% growth, as well as May’s dismal print showing 0.1% contraction. Preliminary quarterly GDP data showed that the British economy expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter of the year against just 0.1% growth anticipated, indicating the economy is slowly expanding.
This coming week, UK GDP data due on September 12 are expected to show economic stagnation in July, down from June’s 0.4% growth. A stronger-than-forecast print would support the Sterling by reducing BOE rate-cut expectations further, while a weak reading might put downside pressure on the Sterling.
USD/JPY rose from 147.1 to 148.9 last week, but pared gains later in the week, dipping to 147.4 on Friday. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support at 145.7. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance at 150.9.
The Yen edged higher last week, buoyed by upbeat economic activity data. Nominal wages jumped 4.1% year-on-year in July, well above expectations of around 3.0%, marking the fastest increase in seven months, while June’s print was revised upward to 3.1%. Meanwhile, household spending climbed 1.4% year-on-year in July from 1.3% in June, missing, however, expectations of 2.2%. The stronger wage backdrop reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan may shift toward rate tightening, lending support to the Yen.
At the same time, Japan finalized a trade treaty with the U.S. that included tariff reductions and commitments to strengthen supply chain cooperation. Notably, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order lowering tariffs on Japanese auto imports to 15% from 27.5% originally.
The BOJ left rates unchanged at its July meeting, as expected, and signaled it’s in no hurry to tighten further. The BOJ raised its inflation forecast, hinting at a tightening path ahead, although the timing of future rate hikes has yet to be determined.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledged that price pressures are gradually firming and suggested that another rate hike remains on the table.
Preliminary GDP data for the second quarter of 2025 showed that Japan’s economy is more resilient than anticipated. GDP rose 0.3% in Q2 of the year, approximately 1.0% annualized, beating market estimates of 0.1%.
Signs that inflation in Japan is cooling are lowering BOJ rate hike expectations, putting pressure on the Yen. BOJ Core CPI rose by just 2.0% in August, down from 2.3% in July, against expectations of 2.4% growth. Tokyo core CPI came in at 2.5% year-on-year in August from 2.9% in July, suggesting cooling price pressures.
Japan's economy remained stagnant in the first quarter of 2025, exceeding the anticipated 0.2% decline. On an annualized basis, GDP shrank by 0.2%, compared to -0.7% in the previous reading. The BOJ may delay interest rate hikes further to support the country’s weakening economy, especially if trade tensions rise.
Gold prices remained bullish last week, reaching a new all-time high of $3,598 per ounce after the release of the U.S. NFP report. If gold prices rise, they may encounter resistance at $3,600 per ounce, while if gold prices decline, support may be encountered near $3,268 per ounce.
Rising risk aversion has raised the appeal of safe-haven assets, propelling gold prices to record highs. Gold prices are likely to hit fresh all-time highs this coming week, especially if a risk-aversion sentiment continues to prevail.
Concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and the Fed’s independence gave rise to a risk aversion sentiment last week, raising the appeal of the safe haven gold. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has ruled that most of U.S. President Trump’s import tariffs are illegal. Trump is asking for an expedited ruling by the Supreme Court, hoping to overturn the U.S. court decision outlawing most of his trade tariffs.
At the same time, Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook is also awaiting a court ruling, and the case is raising concerns about the Fed’s independence, boosting gold prices. Fed nominee Stephen Miran and current White House advisor argued before a Senate panel on Thursday that he is not Trump’s puppet, but failed to quell concerns over the Fed’s future independence from Trump’s reach.
Gold prices have been typically directed by the dollar’s movement, as the competing gold typically loses appeal as an investment when the dollar rises. The dollar gained strength mid-week with the dollar index rising to 98.5, but dipped to 97.4 on Friday. U.S. treasury yields sank last week, with the 10-year bond yield dipping from 4.28% to 4.07%.
Gold prices are also supported by rising Fed rate cut expectations. The Fed held rates steady at 4.25-4.50% in July, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference, boosting the dollar.
Non-farm Payrolls (NFPs) released on Friday were disappointing, reigniting Fed rate cut expectations. The NFP report revealed that the U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the forecast of 75,000.
The NFP report is the most important indicator of job and wage growth, and Friday’s weak print reinforced Fed rate cut expectations, weighing on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields and boosting gold prices. Odds of a September rate cut jumped from approximately 84% before the release of the NFPs to 98% after, with some analysts even eyeing a possible 50-bps cut.
Oil prices dipped last week, with the WTI price dropping from $65.2 to $62.4 per barrel. If WTI price retreats, it may encounter support near $60.1 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $71.3 per barrel.
Oil prices slipped last week as markets braced for OPEC’s output decision on Sunday. OPEC+ members agreed over the weekend to increase oil output by approximately 137,000 barrels per day starting in October. This represents a much more modest boost than the 555,000 bpd rise seen in recent months and signals a renewed drive to regain market share. Oil prices are expected to go up, at least temporarily, and may experience some volatility this coming week, as markets digest OPEC’s latest move.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprise build of 2.4 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week to August 29. The stockpile build far exceeded forecasts of a 2.0M barrel draw, as well as the previous week’s 2.4M barrel draw, putting pressure on oil prices.
Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. The Fed held rates steady at 4.25-4.50% in July, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference.
Non-farm Payrolls (NFPs) released on Friday were disappointing, reigniting Fed rate cut expectations. The NFP report revealed that the U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the forecast of 75,000.
The NFP report is the most important indicator of job and wage growth, and Friday’s weak print reinforced Fed rate cut expectations, weighing on the dollar and Treasury yields. Odds of a September rate cut jumped from approximately 84% before the release of the NFPs to 98% after, with some analysts even eyeing a possible 50-bps cut.
Bitcoin started the week at $107,000, its lowest level in two months, but inched higher during the week, trading close to $111,000 over the weekend. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $107,000, while resistance may be encountered at the all-time high of $124,400.
Ethereum remained steady last week, oscillating around the $4,350 level, but dropped to $4,280 over the weekend. If the Ethereum price declines, it may encounter support near $4,050, while if it increases, it may encounter resistance near $4,950.
Bitcoin price reached an all-time high above $124,400 in August but has been under pressure since. Bitcoin is currently trading near $111,000 after bouncing off two-month lows. Stablecoin inflows and renewed ETF demand are helping restore market confidence, contributing to Bitcoin’s rally. On-chain data showed that short-term holders triggered an oversold signal near $107,000 early in the week, hinting that the worst of the correction may be behind.
An ETH record high of $4,945 was reported two weeks ago, but the cryptocurrency price has been slipping since, due to profit-taking and increased risk aversion.
Concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and the Fed’s independence gave rise to a risk aversion sentiment last week, putting pressure on crypto markets. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has ruled that most of U.S. President Trump’s import tariffs are illegal. Trump is asking for an expedited ruling by the Supreme Court, hoping to overturn the U.S. court decision outlawing most of his trade tariffs.
At the same time, Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook is also awaiting a court ruling, and the case is raising concerns about the Fed’s independence, putting pressure on high-risk assets. Fed nominee Stephen Miran and current White House advisor argued before a Senate panel on Thursday that he is not Trump’s puppet, but failed to quell concerns over the Fed’s future independence from Trump’s reach.
Cryptocurrency prices are also affected by central banks’ interest rates. The Fed held rates steady at 4.25-4.50% in July, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference.
Non-farm Payrolls (NFPs) released on Friday were disappointing, reigniting Fed rate cut expectations. The NFP report revealed that the U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the forecast of 75,000.
The NFP report is the most important indicator of job and wage growth, and Friday’s weak print reinforced Fed rate cut expectations, weighing on the dollar and Treasury yields. Odds of a September rate cut jumped from approximately 84% before the release of the NFPs to 98% after, with some analysts even eyeing a possible 50-bps cut.
BTC/USD 1h Chart
ETH/USD 1h Chart
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