WTI above $100 per barrel, with the EU on the brink of Russian sanctions

Oil prices rallied last week, rising above the key $100 per barrel level and remained strong on Tuesday, with WTI trading above $103 per barrel. If the WTI price drops, support can be found at the $94.5 per barrel level and further down at the $90 per barrel level, while resistance can be found near $106.4 per barrel and further up near $118.3 per barrel. 

Oil prices are especially volatile, as competing factors affect oil supply and demand. Stalling global economic growth and lockdowns in China dampen demand. Covid restrictions in China have raised fears of a large decrease in global oil demands. China is the largest importer of crude oil and the strict Covid lockdowns had been reducing global oil demand. The large economic hub in Shanghai has been in a zero-Covid lockdown for weeks now. China’s capital city of Beijing is not under zero-Covid lockdown yet, but has strict Covid restrictions in place, limiting oil demand.

The crisis between Russia and Ukraine however, has been intensifying concerns of disruptions in oil distribution, supporting oil prices. Continued Russian hostilities against Ukraine provide support for the price of oil, as western allies discuss fresh sanctions on Russia, while the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, cut off the gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria, intensifying fears of an energy crisis in Europe. 

The US has already banned all oil and gas imports from Russia, with as many as 3 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil potentially removed from the market as a result of sanctions and of boycotting of Russian oil. 

The EU is still hesitant to enforce an embargo on Russian oil, as many of its member states, especially Germany, depend heavily on Russian oil imports. The EU is expected to enforce fresh sanctions on Russia within the next few days and it is reported that the Eurozone will enforce a direct embargo on Russian oil imports for the first time. Rumors that Germany has dropped its opposition against the embargo have been pushing up oil prices within the last few days, as such a move will create an energy shortage in Europe. 

The new package of Russian sanctions is being drafted and will likely be distributed among Eurozone members on Wednesday. It is likely, however, that the new sanctions will not signal an abrupt cutting off of Russian oil, as most EU member states are in favor of gradually weaning off Russian oil imports. Hungary and Slovakia, two EU members highly dependent on Russian oil, would likely be exempt from the embargo.

This week, all eyes are going to be on the next Ministerial OPEC+ meeting, on Thursday, May 5th. Strong volatility in the price of oil is expected in the days leading up to the meeting, as well after the event, depending on its outcome. Increased supply concerns, combined with high demand, may encourage OPEC and its allies to increase its current output goal.

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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