Oil prices tick up as Middle East tensions rise

Oil prices extended gains on Thursday, with WTI price touching the $77.2 per barrel level. If WTI price declines, it may encounter support near $70.5 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $79.0 per barrel.

Supply concerns boost oil prices, as the crisis in the Gaza area threatens to disrupt oil distribution. Tensions around the Red Sea area have been rising, raising concerns that hostilities may spread in the Middle East, affecting oil supply and distribution. Iran-backed Houthi militants are attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The US and the UK have launched a coordinated action against Houthi rebels. The coalition delivered new airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen overnight on Monday, boosting oil prices. Houthi troops retaliated on Wednesday, launching new attacks on ships off Yemen's coast, increasing concerns for the oil transportation routes in the area.

US crude oil inventories released on Wednesday showed a surprisingly large draw in US crude stockpiles, boosting oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration reported that weekly crude stocks fell by 9.2M barrels for the week to January 19, following another drop of 2.5M barrels the week before and falling short of expectations of a smaller drop by 1.2M barrels.

Oil prices are kept in check by a strong US dollar and high-interest rates. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its December meeting, within a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Market expectations of future rate cuts fluctuate, causing market volatility. 

China’s poor economic outlook is increasing concerns of reduced oil demand, putting a lid on oil prices, despite increasing geopolitical risks. Weak economic growth in China raises concerns about future demand, pushing oil prices down. 

Global Oil demand outlook has increased, however, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) joined producer group OPEC in forecasting strong growth in global oil demand. The IEA monthly report stated that oil demand is expected to grow by 1.24M barrels per day in 2024, up by 180K barrels per day from its previous projection. OPEC has also reported a high oil demand forecast, expecting a growth in demand of 2.25M barrels per day this year.

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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