Preliminary GDP showed that the US economy expanded by 5.2% in the third quarter of 2023 against expectations of a 5.0% growth.
04 December 2023FOMC meeting minutes emphasized that interest rates will likely remain in restrictive territory for some time.
27 November 2023Market odds of another rate hike in December have dropped to zero, while markets are pricing in rate cuts as early as March.
20 November 2023Powell hinted that policymakers are not confident that they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance to return inflation to the Fed’s 2.0% target.
13 November 2023Markets were not convinced that the Fed intends to resume its tightening cycle, and odds of a rate hike in December have dropped to less than 5%.
06 November 2023A pause in rate hikes this week has already been priced in and market participants are expected to focus mostly on the Fed’s forward guidance.
30 October 2023Market odds turned in favor of an end to rate hikes after several FOMC members hinted that the Fed has reached its rate ceiling.
16 October 2023US inflation data on the 11th and the 12th are the most highly-anticipated fundamentals of the week, as the Fed’s future monetary policy will depend mainly on the US inflation outlook.
09 October 2023Core PCE Price Index data last week indicated that price pressures in the US are easing, increasing the odds of a pause in rate hikes in November.
02 October 2023Particularly illuminating was the Fed’s dot plot, which illustrates the anticipated trajectory of borrowing costs and points to another rate hike within the year.
25 September 2023Odds that the Fed will raise interest rates one more time this year are increasing, although most analysts predict that the Fed has already reached its rate ceiling.
18 September 2023Markets are expecting a pause in rate hikes this month but market odds of another rate hike in November are increasing.
11 September 2023Prolonged economic tightening has put considerable strain on the US economy, which expanded by only 2.1% in the 2nd quarter of 2023, against expectations of 2.4% growth.
04 September 2023The Fed’s forward guidance gave the central bank flexibility towards adjusting its future monetary policy and adopting a data-dependent approach.
31 July 2023If the Fed maintains a hawkish bias and points to more rate hikes up ahead, increased interest rate expectations may boost the dollar.
24 July 2023Even though US inflation slowed more than expected in June, dropping close to the Fed’s 2% goal, most analysts expect another 25-bp rate hike in July.
17 July 2023Powell hinted that consecutive rate hikes may be resumed, stressing that the majority of FOMC members are in favor of two more rate hikes this year.
03 July 2023Powell stated that a strong majority of FOMC members feel that interest rates should go up further and hinted at the possibility of two more rate hikes.
26 June 2023There is growing speculation that, even though the Fed may not raise interest rates this week, that does not necessarily mean an end to its tightening cycle.
12 June 2023US President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are negotiating a deal that would raise the government's debt limit, preventing the US from going into default.
29 May 2023US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell caused a stir in markets, as his statements indicated that the US Central Bank may pivot towards a more dovish direction.
22 May 2023The US Central Bank has signaled that its hawkish policy is coming to an end, as prolonged tightening is putting the economy at risk.
08 May 2023Stability has been gradually returning to the Banking sector, removing some of the incentives to invest in safe-haven currencies, such as the dollar.
24 April 2023The much-anticipated US inflation data are coming up this week, with CPI on the 12th expected to decrease to 5.2% year-on-year in March from 6.0% in February.
10 April 2023The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank may steer the Fed towards a less hawkish direction, in fear of contagion in the financial sector.
13 March 2023Fed rhetoric reinforced the notion that the US central bank may slow down the pace of rate hikes but a pause in the central bank’s tightening policy is not on the cards yet.
06 March 2023Core PCE data combined with CPI and PPI data released earlier this month indicate that the Fed has still a long way to go to rein in inflation.
28 February 2023January’s CPI and PPI inflation prints illustrate the danger of inflation becoming entrenched and may induce the Fed to rethink its recent dovish pivot.
20 February 2023Repeatedly hawkish Fed speak has begun to drive the message home that further rate rises should be expected and that interest rates will need to remain high for a long period.
13 February 2023The Federal Reserve finally decided to relax its monetary tightening, raising interest rates by only 25 basis points last week.
06 February 2023The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, dropped to 4.4% in December and may induce the Fed to pivot towards a more dovish direction in its policy meeting this week.
30 January 2023US inflation data fell below expectations driving the dollar down, as PPI declined by 0.5% in December, versus estimates of a 0.1% drop.
23 January 2023The soft inflation print put pressure on the dollar, as cooling price pressures may give the Fed some leeway towards scaling back its rate hikes.
16 January 2023Signs of cooling US inflation caused the dollar to plummet on decreased Fed rate hike expectations.
09 January 2023Reduced price pressures may give the US Federal Reserve some leeway towards scaling back its interest rate raises, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will ease its rate hikes in 2023.
05 January 2023Cooling price pressures may give the US Federal Reserve some leeway to scale back its interest rate increases in the following year.
19 December 2022Market expectations currently range between a 50-bps and a 25-bps interest rate increase this week, with odds in favor of a 25-bps rate hike.
12 December 2022Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered an unexpectedly dovish speech stating that he sees rate hikes slowing down as soon as December.
06 December 2022The minutes of latest FOMC minutes have revealed that there is no clear consensus among Fed members at the moment, leading to mixed signals for the markets.
28 November 2022Market expectations of future rate hikes were considerably trimmed after the CPI inflation report and were further diminished after Tuesday’s PPI inflation print.
21 November 2022US inflation data for October fell below projections, with annual CPI printing at 7.7% against 7.9% expected, indicating that US inflation is cooling faster than expected.
14 November 2022The US Federal Reserve voted to increase interest rates by 75 basis points last Wednesday, bringing its benchmark interest rate in a range of 3.75% to 4.0%.
07 November 2022All eyes are going to be on the Fed monetary policy meeting on Wednesday with the odds in favor of another rate hike of 75-bps, bringing the interest rate to 4.0%.
31 October 2022US Treasury yields soared, with the US 10-year bond yield climbing above 4.3%, its highest level since June 2008, and the two-year yield surging above 4.6%, its highest level since August 2007.
24 October 2022US inflation reached 8.2% on an annual basis in September putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue its policy of monetary tightening.
17 October 2022US employment data were optimistic, indicating healthy job growth, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will maintain its aggressively tight fiscal policy.
10 October 2022Hawkish Fed rhetoric propelled the dollar to fresh 20-year highs early last week on expectations of steep rate hikes, with the dollar index climbing to 114.7.
03 October 2022Fed Chair Jerome Powel stated that the Fed is determined to curb inflation, even to the expense of economic growth, raising expectations of future rate hikes.
26 September 2022The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest this week to combat persistently high inflation rates, with markets pricing in another 75 basis points rate hike.
19 September 2022As more major Central Banks are shifting toward a tighter monetary policy, the divergence between interest rates with the Fed becomes less apparent, putting pressure on the dollar.
12 September 2022Fed rhetoric remained firmly hawkish, with FOMC member Loretta Mester stating that she sees the Fed benchmark interest rate rising to 4% and no rate cuts through 2023.
05 September 2022In his much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed no signs of wavering in the battle against inflation.
29 August 2022FOMC meeting minutes released last week indicated that Fed members are still committed to raising interest rates, pointing to a steep rate hike in September and providing a major boost for the dollar.
22 August 2022US inflation data are likely to play a decisive role in the Fed’s rate hike in September, as the sudden drop in inflation may induce the Fed to hold back from an aggressive monetary tightening.
16 August 2022The dollar rallied last week, as stronger than expected economic activity and employment data towards the end of the week helped quell recession fears.
10 August 2022Markets are becoming more moderate in their expectations of a Fed rate hike, as slow economic activity indicates that the US economy may not be able to withstand aggressive tightening.
25 July 2022The dollar spiked last week, boosted by soaring US inflation rates, with the dollar index rising above 109.2 and setting a fresh 20-year high.
18 July 2022Robust financial and employment data show that the US economy is not at imminent risk of recession, increasing the chances of a steep rate hike in July.
11 July 2022Recession fears are boosting the safe-haven dollar, outweighing concerns of US economic downturn spurred by weak economic data.
04 July 2022In his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed the importance of bringing US inflation down and admitted that recession was certainly a possibility.
27 June 2022Record high US inflation rates have forced the Fed to ramp up its efforts by performing its steeper rate hike since 1994 and bringing its benchmark interest rate to 1.75%.
20 June 2022The Fed is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 base points on Wednesday, continuing its policy of monetary tightening and gradual return to pre-pandemic rates.
14 June 2022The dollar has been retreating on a mix of weak economic data and unstable market sentiment, although hawkish Fed rhetoric supports the currency.
06 June 2022FOMC meeting minutes indicate that FOMC members are prepared for a series of rate hikes of 50 base points each, confirming that the Fed intends to move with a gradual but steady pace towards monetary policy normalization.
31 May 2022The USD, which has been trading into overbought territory, faced its worst week since January, weakened by unstable market sentiment and lack of support from Treasury yields.
23 May 2022Several FOMC Members have adopted a hawkish stance and openly support a 50 base point rate hike, increasing the probability that the voting in the next policy meeting will be in favor of such a rise.
16 May 2022Fed Chair Powell stated last week that the Fed is not considering a 75 bs rate hike for the next policy meeting, thwarting market expectations and driving the dollar down.
09 May 2022The Fed may move towards a policy of quantitative tightening at its meeting this Wednesday, by starting to trim its 9 trillion USD balance sheet.
03 May 2022US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seems to be in favor of an aggressive rate hike, stating that a 50 base point increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate is on the table for the Fed’s next policy meeting in May.
26 April 2022Inflation remains one of the biggest problems for the US economy, with CPI data showing that headline inflation rose to 8.5%, its highest rate since 1981, and PPI data marking their biggest increase in over a decade.
18 April 2022FOMC minutes showed that several Fed officials were in favor of a rate hike of 50 base points last month, increasing the chances of a 50 bp increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate in May.
11 April 2022The dollar was boosted by hawkish Fed rhetoric, increasing the odds of a 50 bp rate hike at the Central Bank’s next meeting, with markets anticipating total rate hikes of at least 175 base points within the year.
04 April 2022The 10-year US treasury yields rose to a two-year high of 2.5% last week, providing support for the dollar, as investors anticipate a more aggressively hawkish Fed policy.
28 March 2022Diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine last week have sparked hopes of a de-escalation of the conflict, although Russian attacks continue.
21 March 2022War continues raging in Ukraine for almost 20 days now, with heavy casualties including civilians and children.
14 March 2022Western allies announced that they would be blocking "a certain number of Russian banks" from access to the SWIFT banking system and impose restrictions on Russia’s Central Bank, that would effectively cut off Russian Banks from the international financing system and undermine the Russian Central Bank’s ability to support the collapsing Rubble.
28 February 2022Geopolitical tensions were re-ignited and investors turned towards safe-haven assets, with gold price climbing to $1,900 per ounce, while crypto markets were hit hard, with Bitcoin plummeting below the $40,000 key level.
21 February 2022The EU is building a partnership for energy security with the US and other Natural Gas suppliers, in an attempt to mitigate a potential energy crisis and shield the EU from energy shortages.
14 February 2022The EU relies on Russia for most of its natural gas and oil imports, as well as for wheat and other commodities, and a disruption in supply might result in a rise in prices and an increase in inflation rates for the Eurozone.
07 February 2022The dollar picked up momentum after the Federal Reserve released a more hawkish statement than anticipated, with the dollar index climbing to almost 97.5 points on Friday.
31 January 2022WTI price rose to a 7-year high of over $86 per barrel, oversupply concerns and tight oil inventories.
24 January 2022The past year saw an increase in the price of the dollar, as the pandemic started to recede and global economy was set on the path to recovery.
10 January 2022The yearly US CPI rate announced on Wednesday registered the biggest annual gain since 1982, but the USD sank even further, after US inflation rates rose but still came in line with expectations.
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