Crypto markets under pressure by trade war concerns

Bitcoin price dipped from $97,700 to $95,500 on Tuesday on trade war concerns. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $94,000, while resistance may be encountered at $100,000. 

Ethereum also weakened on Tuesday, dropping from $2,670 to $2,610. If Ethereum's price declines, it may encounter support near $2,500, while if it increases, resistance may be encountered near $2,900.

Bitcoin price registered a new all-time high of $109,880 in January but has since been under pressure by increased risk aversion sentiment. Most major cryptocurrencies are facing selling pressure, as US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may start global trading wars. 

Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. The uncertainty over Trump’s future policies and trade tariffs is generating a risk aversion sentiment, putting pressure on crypto markets.

US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Trump has threatened that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries, which would raise US import taxes to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. On Monday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports for all countries importing into the US, raising concerns over global trade wars. 

If Trump goes through with these heavy tariffs, global inflation is likely to rise and the economic outlook will worsen, thus promoting a risk aversion sentiment, which puts pressure on crypto markets.

Trump’s proposed plans for building a Bitcoin strategic reserve have been boosting Bitcoin price. Growing expectations that the US new government will adopt a pro-crypto regulatory and fiscal policy are boosting crypto markets. 

Cryptocurrency prices are also affected by central banks’ interest rates. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting, after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2024. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds range to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50. Market odds of another Fed rate cut before summer are declining, with markets pricing in a rate cut in June at the earliest. Rate cut expectations within the year are low, with approximately 40 basis points of rate cuts priced within 2025. High interest rates stifle economic growth, putting pressure on crypto markets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a mildly hawkish message after the policy meeting. Powell stated that the Fed’s approach will remain data-driven and stressed that the central bank needs to consider potential policy changes under Trump’s administration. On Tuesday, Powell testified about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. Powell’s speech was hawkish, hinting that the Fed may pause rate cuts for some time.

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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