Important calendar events
The dollar dipped last week, and the dollar index dropped to 102.9 at the end of the week. U.S. Treasury yields also declined, with the US 10-year bond yielding approximately 4.00% by the end of the week.
US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Markets this week will continue to focus on Trump’s economic policies and trade tariffs, and Trump’s statements are likely to cause volatility in the dollar price.
On Wednesday, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports into the US, as well as an additional 25% tariff on all imported automobiles. Concerns that US economic growth will slow down are putting pressure on the dollar, and many analysts are already expressing concerns that the US will enter a recession.
Trump’s tariffs may spark global trade wars and are causing turmoil in markets. Import taxes will raise the price of many products, fueling inflationary pressures. Other nations are likely to reciprocate with tariffs of their own, starting global trade wars, which may lead to economic deterioration and rising inflation in many countries.
The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting in March. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Policymakers remained cautious and opted to keep interest rates steady under a climate of economic and inflationary statements.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish message after the policy meeting, stating that the central bank is not in a hurry to lower interest rates. Markets are pricing in two more rate cuts this year, with the first rate cut in June, while a third rate cut is also considered possible.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned on Friday that Trump’s tariffs pose a risk to economic growth and are likely to raise inflation in the US. Fed rate cut expectations dropped after Powell’s comments, providing support for the dollar.
On the data front, Non-farm Payrolls or NFPs exceeded expectations, boosting the dollar. US Non-farm Payrolls on Friday showed that the US economy added 228K new jobs in March, up from 117K in February and well above the 135K estimated.
US ISM Services PMI released on Thursday dropped to 50.8 in March, from 53.5 in February, falling short of expectations of a 53.0 print. Unemployment Claims for the week to March 28 dropped to 219K from 225K the week before.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data on Wednesday surpassed expectations, boosting the dollar. The US private sector added 155K new jobs in March against 105K anticipated, while February’s print was revised upward to 84K.
ISM Manufacturing PMI data released on Tuesday showed that the US Manufacturing sector dropped into contractionary territory in March, with a print of 49.0 below the threshold of 50.0 that denotes industry expansion. US JOLTS Job Openings came in lower than expected on Tuesday. Job openings dropped to 7.57M in February from 7.74 million in January, missing expectations of 7.63M.
The US economy expanded by 2.4% in the final quarter of 2024, against previous estimates of 2.3%, following 3a .1% expansion in the third quarter of 2024. In addition, the US economy expanded by 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024 and by 1.4% in the first quarter. US Unemployment Claims released on Thursday dropped to 224K for the week ending March 22 from 225K the week before, against expectations of a 225K print.
Headline inflation in the US rose by 2.8% year-on-year in February after rising by 3.0% in January against expectations of a 2.9% print. Monthly inflation rose by just 0.2% in February, after rising by 0.5% in January against a 0.3% rise anticipated. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% in February, which was significantly lower than January’s reading of 0.4% and fell below expectations of 0.3%. Annual Core CPI rose by 3.1% in February, below the 3.2% estimate, down from 3.3% in January.
This coming week, markets will focus on the release of US CPI inflation data on the 10th and PPI data on the 11th.
EUR/USD surged from 1.082 to 1.096 last week, as the dollar plummeted. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.073, while resistance may be encountered near 1.121.
The ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its latest policy meeting, bringing its main refinancing rate down to 2.65% from 2.90%. In her speech after the policy meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated her former statement that the central bank’s policy will remain data dependent and warned that the ECB will need to stay vigilant in these uncertain times.
On Wednesday, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports into the US, as well as an additional 25% tariff on all imported automobiles. Several EU countries, such as France, Italy, and Germany export cars to the US and will be affected by these tariffs. Germany in particular, sells 13% of its total automobile exports to the US. In addition, Trump announced 20% reciprocal tariffs to all US imports from the EU.
EC President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the tariffs will have a significant impact on the global economy and warned that the Eurozone is ready to implement countermeasures if talks with the US fail.
Revised GDP data showed that the Eurozone economy expanded by 0.2% in the final quarter of 2024 after expanding by 0.3% in the second quarter, against original estimates of 0.1% growth. The economic outlook of the EU remains fragile as prolonged tightening has brought the Euro area economy to the brink of recession.
Eurozone inflation rose to 2.3% year-on-year in February after rising by 2.5% in January, against a previous reading of 2.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, dropped to 2.6% in February from 2.7% in January.
GBP/USD skyrocketed from 1.300 to 1.320 on Thursday, but pared gains on Friday, plummeting to 1.290. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.330, while support may be found near 1.280.
On Wednesday, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports into the US, as well as an additional 25% tariff on all imported automobiles. Trump’s administration, however, refrained from imposing additional reciprocal tariffs on British imports, as the UK has enjoyed a close partnership with the US for many years.
BOE policymakers kept interest rates steady in March and the Official Bank Rate was maintained at 4.5%. MPC members voted 8-1 to keep rates on hold, with only one member voting for a 25 basis point rate cut.
In his speech after the policy meeting, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, but he still thinks that interest rates are on a declining path. The BOE currently anticipates that the British economy will grow by 0.25% in the current quarter, up from 0.1% previously.
Final GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the British economy expanded by 0.1% matching previous estimates and following economic stagnation in the third quarter of 2024. The British economy contracted unexpectedly by 0.1% in January after expanding by 0.4% in December, missing expectations of 0.1% growth.
Headline inflation in the UK rose by 2.8% annually in February, down from 3.0% in January, against expectations of a 2.9% print. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.5% year-on-year in February, falling below expectations of 3.6% as well as January’s print of 3.7%.
USD/JPY plunged from 149.3 to 146.8 last week, as the dollar plummeted. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support at 145.0. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance at 151.3.
The BOJ held interest steady at 0.50% at its policy meeting in March. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will keep adjusting the degree of monetary easing to support the country’s economy. Ueda stressed, however, that inflation in Japan remains below the BOJ’s 2% target, lowering rate hike expectations and boosting the Yen.
Markets anticipate that the BOJ will raise interest rates at least one more time this year, and there is a high probability of a second 25-bp rate hike within the year. The BOJ is expected to raise interest rates by approximately 75 basis points in the next two years, which will bring the central bank’s peak rate to 1.25%.
On Wednesday, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports into the US, as well as an additional 25% tariff on all imported automobiles. Japan is a major importer of automobiles to the U.S, and the tariffs are likely to affect the country’s economy. Trump also announced reciprocal tariffs of 24% on US imports from Japan.
Final GDP data for the final quarter of 2024 showed that the Japanese economy expanded by only 0.6% against expectations of 0.7% growth. Final GDP data for the third quarter of 2024 showed that Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3%, down from 0.7% in the second quarter.
Inflation in Japan is on the rise, raising the odds of future rate hikes and providing support for the Yen. The headline Tokyo CPI inflation rose to 3.4% annually in January from 3.0% in December. National Core inflation in Japan came in at 3.0% year-on-year in February against expectations of a 2.9% print, but came down from January’s 3.2% print. In addition, BOJ Core CPI remained steady at 2.2% year-on-year in February.
Gold prices hit a new all-time high of $3,168 per ounce on Thursday but dipped on Friday, dropping below $3,040 per ounce. If gold prices rise, they may encounter resistance at $3,200 per ounce, while if gold prices decline, support may be encountered near $2,980 per ounce.
Gold prices are trading in overbought territory but remain bullish, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and trade wars concerns and are likely to touch new historical highs in the following days. Gold prices hit a new all-time high of $3,168 per ounce on Thursday, buoyed by the dollar’s decline, but plummeted later in the week as the Fed turned hawkish.
Gold prices have typically been directed by the dollar’s movement, as the competing gold typically loses appeal as an investment when the dollar rises. The dollar dipped last week, and the dollar index dropped to 102.9 at the end of the week. U.S. Treasury yields also declined, with the US 10-year bond yielding approximately 4.00% by the end of the week.
On Wednesday, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports into the US, as well as an additional 25% tariff on all imported automobiles. Concerns that Trump’s trade policies may ignite global trading wars are raising the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as gold. Trump’s tariffs are likely to raise global inflation and lower the economic outlook, thus promoting a risk-averse sentiment. Trump’s economic policies are raising concerns that the US economic growth may slow down, and many analysts are already expressing concerns that the US will enter a recession.
Trump, however, also announced 34% duties on imports from China. This is likely to have a heavy impact on China’s economy. China is one of the leading buyers of gold, and the US taxes may affect its buying power, putting a lid on gold’s ascent.
Gold prices are supported by rising Fed rate cut expectations. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting in March. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
The Fed, however, updated its “dot plot”, which is a summary of the central bank’s economic projections and reflects the central bank’s rate outlook. The latest FOMC dot plot indicates that policymakers expect to deliver approximately two more rate cuts this year of 25 basis points each, raising market expectations of future rate cuts. Markets are pricing in two more rate cuts this year, with the first rate cut in June, while a third rate cut is also considered possible.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned on Friday that Trump’s tariffs pose a risk to economic growth and are likely to raise inflation in the US. Fed rate cut expectations dropped after Powell’s comments, putting pressure on gold prices.
Oil prices sank last week, and the WTI price plummeted from $71.9 to $60.5 per barrel, its lowest value in four years. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $56.7 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $73.1 per barrel.
Oil prices dipped last week after OPEC+ decided to raise its oil production. The organization decided to raise oil output by 411K barrels per day in May, putting pressure on oil prices.
US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Trump’s tariffs may spark global trade wars and are causing turmoil in markets.
On Wednesday, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports into the US, as well as an additional 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and high reciprocal taxes against many countries. Oil prices plummeted after Trump’s tariff announcement. China has threatened to impose tariffs of 34% on all US imports from April 10 in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs. The potential of a trade war between China and the US is lowering the oil demand outlook, causing oil prices to plummet.
Oil prices have been volatile due to geopolitical instability. Hostilities in the Gaza area have been resumed, breaking the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. On the other hand, Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure for 30 days. The ceasefire deal includes attacks on oil ships in the Black Sea. In addition, the US has agreed to lift some of the sanctions against Russia, putting pressure on oil prices.
Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting in March. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Markets are pricing in two more rate cuts this year, with the first rate cut in June, while a third rate cut is also considered possible.
Bitcoin price exhibited high volatility last week, rising above the $88,000 mark mid-week, then dipping below $83,000. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $81,000, while resistance may be encountered at $88,400.
Ethereum price was also volatile last week, rising to 1,950 mid-week then dropping below $1,800 at the end of the week. If the Ethereum price declines, it may encounter support near $1,750, while if it increases, it may encounter resistance near $1,950.
Most major cryptocurrencies are under pressure due to concerns that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may start global trading wars. Trump’s tariffs are likely to raise global inflation and lower the economic outlook, promoting a risk-averse sentiment that puts pressure on crypto markets.
On Wednesday, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports into the US, as well as an additional 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and high reciprocal taxes against many countries. Crypto markets plummeted after Trump’s tariff announcement. High taxes are likely to worsen the global economic outlook, promoting a risk-averse sentiment and putting pressure on cryptocurrencies.
Trump has announced the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve, stressing his determination to make the US the crypto capital of the world. The US government will cease selling Bitcoin and will stockpile it instead as a store of value. Reports that US President Donald Trump is preparing to launch a new stablecoin owned by his family boosted crypto markets this week.
Cryptocurrency prices are also affected by central banks’ interest rates. High interest rates stifle economic growth, putting pressure on crypto markets. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting in March. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Markets are pricing in two more rate cuts this year, with the first rate cut in June, while a third rate cut is also considered possible.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned on Friday that Trump’s tariffs pose a risk to economic growth and are likely to raise inflation in the US. Fed rate cut expectations dropped after Powell’s hawkish comments on Friday, putting pressure on crypto markets.
BTC/USD 1h Chart
ETH/USD 1h Chart
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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli
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