Oil prices slip as the crisis in the Middle East de-escalates

Oil prices exhibited high volatility last week and WTI price surged to $86.0 per barrel on Friday after Israel attacked Iran but dropped below $83.0 per barrel soon after. If WTI price declines, it may encounter support near $80.7 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $87.8 per barrel.

Geopolitical tensions are boosting oil prices. Supply concerns provide support for oil prices, as the crisis in the Middle East threatens to disrupt oil distribution. Tensions around the Red Sea area raise concerns that hostilities may spread further in the Middle East, affecting oil supply and distribution. Tensions in the Middle East have been high after the recent airstrike on Iran’s embassy in Syria. Iran accused Israel of the attack and launched a retaliative drone strike on Israeli ground. The US has pledged to support Israel in the conflict, raising concerns of a wider regional conflict, which might see oil prices rising even higher.

Israel launched an airstrike against Iran on Friday as retaliation for the drone strikes. Israel’s retaliatory attack came after weeks of soaring tensions in the region. Oil prices spiked briefly during Israel’s attack against Iran, but deflated later on as it became clear that the situation would not escalate further. Irani officials have reportedly stated that Iran does not intend to retaliate anew against Israel. The crisis between Israel and Iran seems to have been diffused for the time being, putting pressure on oil prices.

OPEC+ kept existing output cuts in place at its latest meeting, boosting oil prices. OPEC kept its output policy steady in April, maintaining its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. In addition, Russia may be forced to reduce its oil output even further, as a result of lower refinery runs due to Ukrainian drone strikes. Iraq will continue to reduce its crude exports by another 130K barrels per day to compensate for exceeding its OPEC+ quota in January. 

Oil prices are also kept in check by high Fed interest rates. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting within a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Market expectations of rate cuts dropped sharply after the release of the US inflation report last week. Odds of rate cuts are becoming more moderate as policymakers have stated that they intend to start reducing interest rates slowly.

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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