Important calendar events
The dollar remained firm on Thursday, with the dollar index hovering close to the 102.5 level. US treasury yields continued to gain strength, with the US 10-year bond rising above 4.0%.
US jobs data released on Thursday exceeded expectations, boosting the dollar. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in December rose to 164K from 101K in November as employment growth surpassed expectations. In addition, unemployment claims for the previous week dropped to 202K from 220K the week before.
US Economic activity data released on Wednesday were overall disappointing, putting pressure on the dollar. JOLTS Job Openings data showed that 8.79M new jobs were created in November, falling short of expectations of 8.84M and lagging behind October’s 8.85M job openings. ISM Manufacturing PMI for December fell within expectations, with a 47.4 point versus 47.2 anticipated and a 46.7 value in November. The index remained below the threshold of 50, however, indicating that the US manufacturing sector is still contracting, although at a slower pace. ISM Manufacturing Prices, on the other hand, dropped sharply to 45.2 in December from 49.9 in November. This is a component of PMI, but it is also an inflation gauge, with a print below 50 indicating falling prices.
The minutes of December’s Fed meeting were released on Wednesday but did not provide a clear indication of the direction of the Fed’s policy. The minutes pointed to interest rates staying at restrictive territory for some time, but further signs of disinflation may steer the central bank in a more dovish direction.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its December meeting, within a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The Federal Reserve kept its policy settings unchanged at its latest meeting in December but showed signs of a dovish pivot. The FOMC statement emphasized that inflationary pressures in the US are easing, while economic growth remains limited. The Fed’s forward guidance was more dovish than expected, hinting that the central bank is preparing to pivot to a less restrictive monetary policy.
The Fed’s latest dot plot, which shows policymakers' future interest rate estimates, projects 75 base points of rate cuts within 2024 and 250 basis points by the end of 2026. Market expectations of future rate cuts are driving the dollar down, as markets are currently pricing in a 25 bp rate cut in March with over 70% probability.
The Fed’s hawkish stance over the past year has been paying off and US price pressures are cooling. Headline inflation rose by 3.1% year-on-year in November easing slightly from a 3.2% print in October. CPI rose by only 0.1% in November, while Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3%.
US Final GDP data showed that the US economy expanded by 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023. The US economy continues to expand, although growth was more modest than anticipated in Q3. Low economic growth may induce the Federal Reserve to pivot to a less restrictive monetary policy. Final GDP Price Index for the first quarter of the year was also revised lower, with a final print of 3.3% versus 3.6%. This indicates inflation and a lower print indicates cooling price pressures in the US.
Core PCE price index rose by only 0.1% in November from a 0.2% growth in October against a 0.2% growth expected, bringing the annual rate to 3.2% from 3.4%. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and November’s print confirms that price pressures in the US are easing.
EUR/USD gained strength on Thursday, climbing to the 1.094 level. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.088, while resistance may be encountered near 1.114.
German Preliminary CPI data released on Thursday indicated that inflationary pressures in Germany are cooling, boosting the Euro. German CPI rose by just 0.1% in December against expectations of 0.2% growth. Final Services PMI data for the Eurozone exceeded expectations, with a 48.8 point in December from 48.1 in November and against a preliminary print of 48.1. The EU Services sector remains below the threshold of 50, which denotes industry expansion. This indicates that the Services sector continues to contract but at a slower pace.
ECB policymakers voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.50% in December. The ECB seems to have reached its rate ceiling, as the fragile Eurozone economy cannot withstand further tightening. Markets are starting to price in rate cuts in March, although ECB officials have stressed that discussions on a rate cut timeline have not started yet.
The ECB’s policy is starting to diverge from that of the Federal Reserve. At its latest policy meeting last week, the Fed signaled that interest rates would go down in 2024. ECB President Christine Lagarde, however, has stated that it is too early to talk about rate cuts. Lagarde stressed that interest rates will remain at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to bring inflation back to the ECB’s 2% target.
The economic outlook of the Eurozone appears to be deteriorating, however, and may force the ECB to pivot to a more dovish policy. The Eurozone economy does not show signs of recovery and is on the brink of recession. Revised GDP for the Euro area showed that the Eurozone economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, which was in line with expectations. The Eurozone economy barely expanded in the second quarter by 0.1%, after contracting by 0.1% in Q1 of 2023. Year-on-year the EU economy registered stagnation with GDP flat at 0%. The Eurozone economy is struggling and cannot withstand much further tightening.
The ECB’s efforts to curb inflation rates are paying off, even at the cost of decreased economic growth. Price pressures in the EU are cooling and this will likely play a decisive role in the ECB’s future policy. Last week the ECB downgraded its inflation forecasts for 2023 and beyond.
Final EU CPI data showed that headline inflation in the Eurozone dropped to 2.4% year-on-year in November, its lowest level since July 2021, from 2.9% in October. Final Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, eased to 3.6% year-on-year in November from 4.2% in October.
GBP/USD traded sideways on Thursday, oscillating around the 1.267 level. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance near 1.282, while support may be found near 1.260.
Services PMI data released on Thursday showed that Britain's services sector increased at a faster rate than anticipated, reaching its highest level since June. Final Services PMI for December rose to 53.4 from 52.7 in November and a preliminary reading of 52.7. The Services PMI remained above the threshold of 50, indicating that the Services sector in the UK is expanding.
British inflation cooled more than expected in November, dropping to 2-year lows. Headline inflation slowed to 3.9% year-on-year in November, from 4.6% in October against expectations of a 4.4% print. Annual Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, grew by only 5.1% in November versus 5.7% in October and 5.6% forecast.
Inflation in the UK has been resisting the BOE’s efforts to bring it down for a long time but has been dropping at a rapid pace since October. Signs of easing inflationary pressures in the UK are reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will end its hiking cycle and will be cutting interest rates by mid-2024.
The BOE maintained its official rate at 5.25% at its latest policy meeting, which was in line with expectations. The central bank’s outlook remains hawkish, however, with three policy members voting to increase interest rates versus six members voting to maintain current rates.
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey has kept his hawkish stance, stressing that inflationary pressures in the UK remain high and that further tightening might bring inflation down to the bank’s 2% target.
The BOE has likely reached its rate ceiling but will keep interest rates on hold for a long time to bring inflation down. Even though the current restrictive policy is hurting economic growth, the BOE has no choice but to continue its battle against inflation.
Market expectations of the BOE’s future direction reflect the need to keep interest rates in restrictive territory for longer. The BOE policy is starting to diverge from that of the FED, as the Fed has already signaled that rates will be lowered within 2024. Market odds are in favor of Fed rate cuts starting in March, but BOE rate cuts are not expected before May.
The British economy remains fragile, reinforcing the notion that the BOE has reached its peak interest rates. Prolonged tightening has taken its toll on the labor market and other vital economic sectors. Final GDP data revealed that the British economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023, against expectations of stagnation. The British economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year and 0.2% in the second quarter. Monthly GDP data showed that the British economy contracted by 0.3% in October. Economic growth is slowing down in the UK and the country is entering a recession.
USD/JPY extended gains on Thursday, rising above the 144.5 level. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support near 140.6. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance near 145.
The BOJ has been keeping interest rates at a negative level, putting pressure on the Yen. The BOJ kept its policy settings unchanged at its December meeting. The central bank kept its short rate target steady at -0.10% and its yield curve control unchanged. The BOJ on Wednesday stated that it would reduce the amount of bonds it buys in its regular operations in the January-March quarter.
The BOJ’s forward guidance into 2024 was more dovish than expected, putting pressure on the Yen. In the past few months, BOJ policymakers have hinted that the central bank is preparing to pivot to a less accommodating policy. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, however, delivered a cautious statement after the meeting, indicating that a policy pivot is still far off. Ueda stated that economic growth remains modest and that underlying inflation will gradually increase, but the BOJ requires sustainable, stable inflation before tightening its monetary policy.
The Fed has signaled a dovish pivot, relieving some of the pressure on the Yen, which has been weakened by the BOJ’s dovish policy. The BOJ has so far maintained its dovish bias, putting more pressure on the Yen as other major central banks, and especially the Fed, have raised interest rates to high levels.
Final GDP data for the third quarter of the year showed that Japan's economy contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter against earlier estimates of a 0.5% contraction. The Japanese economy expanded by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2023, showing that the country’s economy is shrinking and is on the brink of recession. Final GDP Price Index showed a 5.3% annual expansion in Q2, versus 3.5% the previous quarter. This measure of inflation shows that inflationary pressures are rising in Japan, increasing the odds of a hawkish shift in the BOJ’s policy.
Inflation in Japan has remained above the BOJ’s 2% target for more than a year, encouraging the BOJ to tighten its monetary policy. National Core CPI cooled to 2.5% year-on-year in November from 2.9% in October print. BOJ Core CPI dropped to 3.0% year-on-year in October from 3.4% in September, against expectations of a 3.4% print.
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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli
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