Important calendar events
The dollar dipped last week, and the index plunged from 102.9 to 99.8. The dollar suffered historic losses last week, plummeting to 35-month lows as US-China tensions escalated. U.S. Treasury yields, on the other hand, gained strength, with the US 10-year bond yield rising from 3.91% to 4.49%.
Global trade war concerns have been causing turmoil in markets. Investor confidence is low, raising the appeal of safe-haven assets. However, the dollar, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, is plummeting. The uncertainty of US policies and trade tariffs has undermined investor confidence in the dollar, putting its safe-haven status in question.
US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Markets this week will continue to focus on Trump’s economic policies and trade tariffs, and Trump’s statements are likely to cause volatility in the price of the dollar.
Import taxes will raise the price of many products, fueling inflationary pressures. Other nations are likely to reciprocate with tariffs of their own, starting global trade wars, which may lead to economic deterioration and rising inflation in many countries. Concerns that US economic growth will slow down are putting pressure on the dollar, and many analysts are already expressing concerns that the US will enter a recession.
Last week, Trump announced that he would pause tariffs for 90 days, against all countries, except China. The situation between the US and China is continuously escalating, with both countries announcing heavier tariffs against each other every day. Trump announced last week 34% duties on imports from China, and China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US imports, causing the crisis to escalate. Trump further exacerbated matters on Monday by imposing additional 50% tariffs against China. China raised retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 84%, a nd on Thursday, the US increased tariffs on China to 145%, and China retaliated by increasing tariffs on US products to 125%.
The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting in March. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Policymakers remained cautious and opted to keep interest rates steady under a climate of economic and inflationary statements.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish message after the policy meeting, stating that the central bank is not in a hurry to lower interest rates. Markets are pricing in two more rate cuts this year, with the first rate cut in June, while a third rate cut is also considered possible. The minutes of the latest Fed meeting were released on Wednesday and revealed that US policymakers anticipate that inflation in the US will continue to rise, and at the same time, economic growth will slow down.
On the data front, the US economy expanded by 2.4% in the final quarter of 2024, against previous estimates of 2.3%, following a 3.1% expansion in the third quarter of 2024. In addition, the US economy expanded by 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024 and by 1.4% in the first quarter. US Unemployment Claims released on Thursday dropped to 224K for the week ending March 22 from 225K the week before, against expectations of a 225K print.
US Unemployment Claims rose to 223K for the week ending April 5 from 219K the week before, but were in line with expectations.
US inflation data released last week came in softer than anticipated, indicating that price pressures in the US remain low. Headline inflation in the US rose by 2.4% year-on-year in March after rising by 2.8% in February against expectations of a 2.5% print. Monthly inflation dropped by 0.1% in March, after rising by 0.2% in February against a 0.1% rise anticipated. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.1% in March, which was lower than February’s reading of 0.2% and fell below expectations of 0.3%. Annual Core CPI rose by 2.8% in March, below the 3.0% estimate, down from 3.1% in February.
In addition, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in March, after rising by 3.2% in February and against expectations of a 3.3% print. Annual Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.3% in March, down from 3.5% in February. The monthly PPI index declined by 0.4% in March against expectations of 0.2% growth, while the monthly Core PPI declined by 0.1%, against expectations of 0.3% growth.
EUR/USD surged from 1.098 to 1.147 last week, its highest level since February 2022. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.077, while resistance may be encountered near 1.160.
The ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its latest policy meeting, bringing its main refinancing rate down to 2.65% from 2.90%. In her speech after the policy meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated her former statement that the central bank’s policy will remain data dependent and warned that the ECB will need to stay vigilant in these uncertain times.
The next ECB policy rate decision is this week on April 17, and markets anticipate that the ECB will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in April.
Trump has previously announced a 10% tariff on all imports into the US, as well as an additional 25% tariff on all imported automobiles. Several EU countries, such as France, Italy, and Germany, export cars to the US and will be affected by these tariffs. Germany, in particular, sells 13% of its total automobile exports to the US.
Last week, however, Trump announced that he will pause tariffs for 90 days, against all countries, except China. EC President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU agrees to pause economic countermeasures against the US for 90 days to allow time for negotiations.
Revised GDP data showed that the Eurozone economy expanded by 0.2% in the final quarter of 2024 after expanding by 0.3% in the second quarter, against original estimates of 0.1% growth. The economic outlook of the EU remains fragile as prolonged tightening has brought the Euro area economy to the brink of recession.
Eurozone inflation rose to 2.3% year-on-year in February after rising by 2.5% in January, against a previous reading of 2.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, dropped to 2.6% in February from 2.7% in January.
GBP/USD surged from 1.290 to 1.310 last week as the dollar weakened. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.320, while support may be found near 1.270.
Trump has previously announced a 10% tariff on all imports into the US, as well as an additional 25% tariff on all imported automobiles. Trump’s administration, however, refrained from imposing additional reciprocal tariffs on British imports, as the UK has enjoyed a close partnership with the US for many years. Last week, however, Trump announced that he will pause tariffs for 90 days, against all countries, except China.
BOE policymakers kept interest rates steady in March, and the Official Bank Rate was maintained at 4.5%. MPC members voted 8-1 to keep rates on hold, with only one member voting for a 25 basis point rate cut.
In his speech after the policy meeting, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, but he still thinks that interest rates are on a declining path. The BOE currently anticipates that the British economy will grow by 0.25% in the current quarter, up from 0.1% previously.
Final GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the British economy expanded by 0.1%, matching previous estimates and following economic stagnation in the third quarter of 2024. Monthly GDP data released on Friday showed that the British economy expanded by 0.5% in February, after contracting by 0.1% in January, exceeding expectations of 0.1% growth.
Headline inflation in the UK rose by 2.8% annually in February, down from 3.%0 % in January, against expectations of a 2.9% print. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.5% year-on-year in February, falling below expectations of 3.6% as well as January’s print of 3.7%.
USD/JPY plummeted from 145.9 to 143.4 last week, as the dollar weakened. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support at 141.6. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance at 150.5.
The BOJ held interest steady at 0.50% at its policy meeting in March. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will keep adjusting the degree of monetary easing to support the country’s economy. Ueda stressed, however, that inflation in Japan remains below the BOJ’s 2% target, lowering rate hike expectations and boosting the Yen.
Markets anticipate that the BOJ will raise interest rates at least one more time this year, and there is a high probability of a second 25-bp rate hike within the year. The BOJ is expected to raise interest rates by approximately 75 basis points in the next two years, which will bring the central bank’s peak rate to 1.25%.
Trump has previously announced a 10% tariff on all imports into the US, as well as an additional 25% tariff on all imported automobiles. Japan is a major importer of automobiles to the US, and the tariffs are likely to affect the country’s economy. Trump also announced reciprocal tariffs of 24% on US imports from Japan. Last week, however, Trump announced that he will pause tariffs for 90 days, against all countries, except China.
The BOJ has expressed concerns over Japan's economy, as the effect of US tariffs is likely to affect the country’s industries and economic stability. The BOJ has warned that Trump's tariffs could undermine the wage and price cycle necessary for future interest rate hikes.
Global trade war concerns have been causing turmoil in Forex markets. The dollar plummeted last week, and, at the same time, the safe-haven Yen gained strength, causing a sell-off in the USD/JPY. On Friday, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato warned that excess FX volatility negatively impacts the Japanese economy.
Final GDP data for the final quarter of 2024 showed that the Japanese economy expanded by only 0.6% against expectations of 0.7% growth. Final GDP data for the third quarter of 2024 showed that Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3%, down from 0.7% in the second quarter.
Inflation in Japan is on the rise, raising the odds of future rate hikes and providing support for the Yen. The headline Tokyo CPI inflation rose to 3.4% annually in January from 3.0% in December. National Core inflation in Japan came in at 3.0% year-on-year in February against expectations of a 2.9% print, but came down from January’s 3.2% print. In addition, BOJ Core CPI remained steady at 2.2% year-on-year in February.
Gold prices retained their bullish momentum last week, hitting new all-time highs every day and registering a new historical high of $3,244 per ounce on Friday. If gold prices rise, they may encounter resistance at the psychological level of $3,300 per ounce, while if gold prices decline, support may be encountered near $2,950 per ounce.
Gold prices hit a new all-time high of $3,244 per ounce last week, buoyed by the dollar’s decline and trade war concerns. Gold prices have been trading in overbought territory for the past few weeks but remain bullish and are likely to hit new historical highs this week.
Gold prices have typically been directed by the dollar’s movement, as the competing gold typically loses appeal as an investment when the dollar rises. The dollar dipped last week, and the index plunged from 102.9 to 99.8. The dollar suffered historic losses last week, plummeting to 35-month lows as US-China tensions escalated. U.S. Treasury yields, on the other hand, gained strength, with the US 10-year bond yield rising from 3.91% to 4.49%.
Global trade war concerns have been causing turmoil in markets. Investor confidence is low, raising the appeal of safe-haven assets. US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Trump’s tariffs are likely to raise global inflation and lower the economic outlook, thus promoting a risk-averse sentiment. Trump’s economic policies are raising concerns that the US economic growth may slow down, and many analysts are already expressing concerns that the US will enter a recession.
Last week, Trump announced that he would pause tariffs for 90 days, against all countries, except China. China is one of the leading buyers of gold, and the US taxes may affect its buying power, putting a lid on gold’s ascent. The situation between the US and China is continuously escalating, with both countries announcing heavier tariffs against each other every day. Trump announced last week 34% duties on imports from China, and China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US imports, causing the crisis to escalate. Trump further exacerbated matters on Monday by imposing additional 50% tariffs against China. China raised retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 84%, and on Thursday, the US increased tariffs on China to 145%, and China retaliated by increasing tariffs on US products to 125%.
Gold prices are supported by rising Fed rate cut expectations. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting in March. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Markets are pricing in two more rate cuts this year, with the first rate cut in June, while a third rate cut is also considered possible.
Oil prices exhibited high volatility last week, and WTI price dipped to $55.1 per barrel mid-week, its lowest level since 2021, but pared some losses later in the week, rising to $61.4 per barrel. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $55.1 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $73.1 per barrel.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its oil demand forecast last week, causing oil prices to plummet. The EIA revised its oil demand outlook downwards, to reflect a rise by only 0.9 million barrels per day in 2025 from 1.2 million barrels per day previously and 1 million barrels in 2026, from 1.2 million barrels per day previously. In addition, OPEC+ has recently decided to raise oil output by 411K barrels per day in May. The EIA predicted that the combination of lower demand and increased OPEC+ output is likely to lead to an oversupply of oil in the second half of the year.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned on Friday that the US might impose sanctions on Iran's oil exports to put pressure on the country to end its nuclear program. His comments raised oil supply concerns, boosting oil prices.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has been using threats of imposing trade tariffs as a negotiation tool to further his agenda with other countries. Trump’s tariffs may spark global trade wars and are causing turmoil in markets. Last week, Trump announced that he would pause tariffs for 90 days, against all countries, except China.
The situation between the US and China is continuously escalating, with both countries announcing heavier tariffs against each other every day. Trump announced last week 34% duties on imports from China, and China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US imports, causing the crisis to escalate. Trump further exacerbated matters on Monday by imposing additional 50% tariffs against China. China raised retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 84%, and on Thursday, the US increased tariffs on China to 145%, a nd China retaliated by increasing tariffs on US products to 125%. The potential of a trade war between China and the US is lowering the oil demand outlook, causing oil prices to plummet.
Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting in March. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Markets are pricing in two more rate cuts this year, with the first rate cut in June, while a third rate cut is also considered possible.
Bitcoin price dipped below the $75,000 level early last week, weighed down by increased risk aversion sentiment. Bitcoin price rallied later in the week, trading above $84,000 over the weekend. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $74,300, while resistance may be encountered at $88,600.
Ethereum price edged higher last week, trading above 1,600 over the weekend. If the Ethereum price declines, it may encounter support near $1,400, while if it increases, it may encounter resistance near $1,950.
Most major cryptocurrencies are under pressure due to concerns that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may start global trading wars. Trump’s tariffs are likely to raise global inflation and lower the economic outlook, promoting a risk-averse sentiment that puts pressure on crypto markets.
High taxes are likely to worsen the global economic outlook, promoting a risk-averse sentiment and putting pressure on cryptocurrencies. Last week, Trump announced that he would pause tariffs for 90 days, against all countries, except China. Even though investor confidence remains low, news of a hiatus in trade wars for most countries boosted crypto markets after Trump’s announcement.
The situation between the US and China is continuously escalating, however, with both countries announcing heavier tariffs against each other every day, putting pressure on risk assets. Trump announced last week 34% duties on imports from China, and China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US imports, causing the crisis to escalate. Trump further exacerbated matters on Monday by imposing additional 50% tariffs against China. China raised retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 84%, a nd on Thursday, the US increased tariffs on China to 145%, and China retaliated by increasing tariffs on US products to 125%.
Trump has announced the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve, stressing his determination to make the US the crypto capital of the world. The US government will cease selling Bitcoin and will stockpile it instead as a store of value. Reports that US President Donald Trump is preparing to launch a new stablecoin owned by his family boosted crypto markets this week.
Cryptocurrency prices are also affected by central banks’ interest rates. High interest rates stifle economic growth, putting pressure on crypto markets. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting in March. FOMC policymakers voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Markets are pricing in two more rate cuts this year, with the first rate cut in June, while a third rate cut is also considered possible.
BTC/USD 1h Chart
ETH/USD 1h Chart
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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli
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