Important calendar events
The dollar surged on Monday, with the dollar index rising above the 106.8 level, its highest value since November 2022. The dollar is moving in overbought territory supported by increased rate hike expectations and diminishing risk sentiment. US bond yields also rose, with the US 10-year bond yield climbing to 4.7% for the first time since 2007.
Robust US manufacturing data boosted the dollar on Monday. The ISM Manufacturing PMI index rose to 49.0 in September from 47.6 in August, exceeding expectations of a 47.8 print. US Final Manufacturing PMI also rose to 49.8 in September from 48.9 in August. Both indices remained below the 50 level, indicating that the US manufacturing sector is still in contractionary territory, but the industry is contracting at a slower pace.
In September’s monetary policy meeting, FOMC members voted to keep interest rates unchanged at a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The Fed decided to pause rate hikes but that does not necessarily mean it has reached its rate ceiling. Market odds of another rate hike within the year are increasing, although it is clear that the Fed’s future policy direction will be data-driven.
Core PCE Price Index rose 0.1% month-on-month in August against predictions of 0.2% growth and 0.2% in July. Core PCE Price Index dropped to 3.9% year-on-year from 4.3% in July. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and a lower-than-expected print indicated that price pressures in the US are easing. Market odds favoring a pause in rate hikes in November rose above 80% after the release of the PCE index.
US inflationary pressures are not easing just yet, despite the Fed’s high-interest rates. Headline inflation came in hotter than anticipated, climbing to 3.7% year-on-year in August from 3.2% in July versus 3.6% expected. Rising fuel costs are largely to blame for the stubbornly high inflation rates in the US.
Final GDP data for the second quarter of 2023 showed that the US economy expanded by only 2.1% in Q2 of 2023 against expectations of 2.2% growth. The final GDP price index for the 2nd quarter of the year also came in below expectations at 1.7% versus 2.0% anticipated.
Several economic activity indicators are due on Tuesday for the US. The most important among those are the JOLTS Job Openings data
The EUR/USD pair extended losses on Monday, dropping to 1.047. its lowest level since December 2022. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find further support at 1.022, while resistance may be encountered near 1.067.
Eurozone fundamentals released on Monday were within market expectations. The final Manufacturing PMI in September remained at 43.4 as predicted. The manufacturing sector in the EU remains in contractionary territory as September’s print came in below the threshold of 50 required for industry expansion. Unemployment in the EU remained at high levels in August, with a 6.4% print as expected, only marginally down from 6.5% in July.
Headline inflation in the Eurozone fell to its lowest level in two years in September. Flash CPI cooled to 4.3% year-on-year in September from 5.2% in August against expectations of a 4.5% print. Core CPI Flash Estimate, which excludes food and energy, also came in cooler than anticipated. Core CPI eased to 4.5% in September from 5.3% in August versus 4.5% predicted. The ECB’s efforts to curb inflation rates are paying off, even at the cost of decreased economic growth.
The ECB raised interest rates by 25 bp at its monetary policy meeting last week, bringing its main refinancing rate to 4.50%. The ECB had the difficult task of assessing the risk to the fragile Eurozone economy against high inflation rates. In the end, persistently high inflation induced the central bank to raise interest rates again on Thursday.
The ECB hinted that it had reached its interest rate ceiling, putting pressure on the Euro. ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled an end to rate hikes at the press conference after the conclusion of the meeting but warned that interest rates will remain at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.
Final GDP data for the Euro area were disappointing, showing that the Eurozone economy expanded by only 0.1% in the second quarter of the year against expectations of 0.3% growth. The Eurozone economy barely expanded in the second quarter after contracting by 0.1% in Q1 of 2023. The EU economy is struggling and cannot withstand much further tightening.
GBP/USD dipped on Monday as the dollar gained strength touching 1.208, its lowest level since March. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance near 1.228, while support may be found near 1.200.
The manufacturing sector in the UK continued to contract sharply, as shown by Manufacturing PMI data released on Monday. The indicator rose only marginally to 44.3 in September from 44.2 in August. A print below 50 denotes industry contraction although the slightly higher reading shows that the sector is shrinking at a slower pace.
The British economy expanded at a higher pace than anticipated in the second quarter of 2023. A positive GDP report indicated that the economic outlook for the UK has improved and has alleviated recession fears.
Final GDP data showed that the British economy grew faster than anticipated, expanding by 0.3% in the first three months of this year, up from the 0.1% previously estimated. Final GDP data for the second quarter of the year indicated a 0.2% expansion, as expected. More importantly, the UK's economy has grown by 1.8% since the pandemic started, beating the previous estimate of a 0.2% contraction.
The BOE maintained its official rate at 5.25% at its policy meeting in September against expectations of a 25-bp rate hike. The BOE also signaled that it had reached its peak interest rate.
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey has stated that the central bank would be watching closely to see if further rate hikes are needed. Bailey also emphasized that the BOE will be holding interest rates in restrictive territory long enough to see inflation down to the bank’s 2% target.
Inflationary pressures in the UK are finally receding and likely tipped the balance in favor of a pause in rate hikes. British Inflation cooled more than expected in August, demonstrating the effectiveness of the BOE’s consistently hawkish policy. Headline inflation dropped to 6.7% year-on-year in August from 6.8% in July against expectations of 7.0%.
A combination of a struggling economy and high inflation is making the BOE’s task more difficult. Further tightening is needed to bring inflation down at the risk of tipping the British economy into recession. The state of the British economy remains fragile, as prolonged tightening has taken its toll on the labor market and other vital economic sectors.
USD/JPY edged higher on Monday, touching 149.9 and moving precariously close to the key 150 level. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support near 147.3. If the pair climbs, it may find further resistance at 150.
The Yen has been weakening, pushed down by the BOJ’s ultra-accommodating monetary policy. The Yen’s weakness has been a subject of concern for Japanese authorities as it undermines the country’s importing potential and causes financial distress in households.
Japanese authorities have been repeatedly warning speculators against excessive short-selling of the Yen. The Yen’s continued weakness is raising market awareness of another intervention by the Japanese government to support the ailing currency.
Many market analysts view the USD/JPY 150 level as the line in the sand for another intervention. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated on Monday that the government is closely watching FX moves with a strong sense of urgency.
The looming threat of government intervention is providing some support for the Yen. As however, Japanese officials are only issuing verbal warnings so far with no attempt at a new intervention the Yen continues to weaken.
The BOJ has maintained its dovish bias, putting more pressure on the Yen as other major central banks have been moving in a hawkish direction for over a year. The Yen becomes even more vulnerable as other major central banks continue raising interest rates.
At its policy meeting in September, the BOJ maintained its short-term interest rate target steady at -0.10% and showed no signs of relaxing its ultra-easy policy.
The minutes of the BOJ’s September meeting were released on Monday. The minutes showed that policymakers discussed the complications of a potential exit from negative interest rates, stressing that various factors must be considered when shifting their policy.
Market odds of a BOJ rate hike in January have increased above 60%. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has hinted that a policy shift may finally be on the horizon.
National Core CPI dropped to 3.1% in July from 3.3% in June. Inflation in Japan has remained above the BOJ’s 2% target for more than a year, encouraging the BOJ to tighten its monetary policy. BOJ Core CPI climbed to 3.3% on an annual level in August beating expectations of 3.2%.
Final GDP data for the second quarter of the year showed that the Japanese economy expanded by 1.2%, disappointing expectations of 1.4% growth. The final GDP Price Index showed a 3.5% annual expansion, versus 3.4% the previous quarter. Japan’s economic recovery increases the odds of a hawkish pivot in BOJ’s monetary policy.
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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli
présence dans l'industrie en tant que fournisseur de liquidités
et une exécution fiable
séparés
de premier ordre
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