Oil prices are volatile as Israel and Lebanon agree to a ceasefire

Oil prices exhibited high volatility on Tuesday as Israel and Lebanon negotiated the terms of a ceasefire deal, which was finally accepted by both parties at the end of the day. WTI price plunged from $69.8 to $68.3 per barrel but pared some losses towards the end of the day, rising to $69.1 per barrel. If oil prices retreat, they may encounter support near $66.9 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $71.7 per barrel.

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine flared last week boosting oil prices. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine started to de-escalate this week, however, leading to a drop in oil prices. 

Concerns of a broadening conflict in the Middle East have boosted oil prices in the past year. Oil prices were volatile on Tuesday as Israel and Lebanon negotiated a ceasefire deal. Reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has finally accepted a ceasefire deal with Lebanon put pressure on oil prices on Tuesday, as geopolitical tensions are starting to cool. The deal will hopefully put an end to the 14-month conflict and has the potential to restore stability in the Middle East.

Focus this week will be on the OPEC+ meeting on Saturday, December 1st. Comments from members of the OPEC+ consortium this week are likely to cause volatility in oil prices. OPEC’s December meeting holds special interest, as the organization is expected to announce its output plans for the year ahead. With a lull in geopolitical tensions causing oil prices to drop, traders will be waiting for an extension of OPEC’s oil production cuts into 2025. 

Oil prices are kept in check by high central banks’ interest rates. Rate cut expectations have been fluctuating in the past couple of weeks, with the odds of a December rate cut at approximately 60%.

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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