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Oil prices steady in anticipation of US CPI

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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

14 February 2023
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Oil prices were steady on Monday, with WTI price oscillating around the $79.5 per barrel level. If the WTI price declines, it may encounter support near $72.4 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $82.3 per barrel.

US CPI data on Tuesday is this week’s most highly anticipated fundamentals and are expected to affect oil prices. Recession concerns still run high and aggressive rate hikes stifle economic activity, limiting the oil demand outlook. As inflation starts to cool though, central banks are starting to lower the pace of rate hikes, which may raise future oil demand expectations. 

Fedspeak over the past week has been hawkish, emphasizing that further rate rises should be expected and that interest rates will need to remain high for a long period. Fed's Bowman stated on Monday that the UC central bank aims to raise interest rates to bring inflation down below 2%. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the disinflation process has begun but warned that it still has a long way to go. The Fed’s stance appears cautiously optimistic, reinforcing the notion that the Fed’s decisions will be based firmly on disinflation rates and the state of the US economy. 

A price cap on Russian oil exports was set on February 5th. G7 leaders set the price cap of Russian oil exports at $100 per barrel on diesel and other products that trade at a premium to crude and $45 per barrel for products that trade at a discount. Meanwhile, Russia announced plans to reduce oil production next month. Russia threatened to cut oil output by 500,000 barrels per day as a retaliation for the price cap on the country's oil exports.

Oil prices are supported by optimism over China’s economic recovery. China is the world’s largest energy importer and prolonged lockdowns have dampened oil demand. The Chinese government has eased some of its strident Covid regulations, abandoning its zero-Covid policy. China has re-opened its borders after almost three years, fuelling hopes of economic recovery. 

WTI 1hr chart


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Written by:
Myrsini Giannouli

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