Important calendar events
The dollar edged lower last week, and the dollar index dropped from 98.9 to 98.2. U.S. Treasury yields, on the other hand, edged lower, providing support for the dollar, with the 10-year bond yield rising from 4.20% to 4.39%.
The dollar eased last week as markets ramped up expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts, driven by a mix of softer economic and labor data, as well as key Fed developments.
The Fed held rates steady at its policy meeting in July, as expected, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference. Powell acknowledged progress on disinflation but emphasized the need for more data before considering rate cuts. Markets had been pricing in a September rate cut, but Powell’s cautious stance prompted a pullback in dovish bets.
Rate cut odds in September, however, shot up to approximately 90% last week after Fed policy developments. U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, to temporarily fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors left by the resignation of Governor Adriana Kugler. Miran is expected to serve until January 31, 2026, aligning with Kugler’s remaining term. Miran’s nomination was widely interpreted as a move by the U.S. President to undermine the Fed’s independence and to further his agenda. Trump has been pushing toward a more accommodative stance, and dovish bets rose after Miran’s nomination, putting pressure on the dollar.
On the data front, the U.S. services sector showed signs of slowing, with the ISM Services PMI falling to 50.1 in July against expectations of 51.5 and a print of 50.8 in June, reflecting softer new orders and employment.
Disappointing U.S. jobs data put pressure on the dollar last week. Unemployment claims went up to 226K for the week ending August 1, up from 219K the week before and exceeding market estimates of 221K.
Advance GDP data for the second quarter of 2025 showed that the U.S. economy is rebounding. The GDP data showed robust 3.0% annual growth, coming in above estimates of 2.4% and reversing the first quarter’s 0.5% decline. The stronger GDP print boosted the dollar as it suggested increased economic growth.
US Headline inflation jumped to 2.7% year-on-year in June from 2.4% in May, against expectations of a 2.6% reading. Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 0.3%, which was in line with expectations but exceeded May’s 0.1% print. Core CPI rose by 0.2% in June, up from 0.1% in May, but fell below expectations of 0.3%.
This coming week, the dollar is likely to be affected by U.S. inflation data. The following key data releases are likely to cause volatility in the dollar
EUR/USD benefited from the dollar’s decline last week, rising from 1.157 to 1.165. If the EUR/USD pair declines, it may find support at 1.139, while resistance may be encountered near 1.181.
The Euro faced downward pressure last week due to weak Eurozone economic indicators and more dovish expectations on monetary policy stance.
The European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady at 2% in July, after cutting rates eight consecutive times. The Euro gained strength after the ECB policy meeting, countering the dollar’s rally. The ECB held rates steady, as expected, but struck a cautious tone, acknowledging progress on inflation but warning of the possible effects of trade tariffs. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the central bank monitors rates rather than targeting them, and that policymakers intend to work with the data that comes in moving forward.
However, weak Euro area economic growth has led to market speculation that the ECB might adopt a more dovish approach, potentially leading to rate cuts later in the year.
Eurozone Services PMIs released on Tuesday remained soft, failing to provide support for the Euro. German Services data exceeded expectations, but the French Services sector sank deeper into contractionary territory. Euro Area Services PMI came in at 51.0, showing slight expansion, but failing to meet expectations, reinforcing the ECB’s cautious tone.
EU flash CPI data showed that inflationary pressures in the Euro Area remain sticky, reinforcing the ECB’s decision to pause rate cuts and keeping future rate cut odds low. EU flash CPI came in at 2.0% year-on-year in July, matching June’s print and just above expectations of 1.9%, aligning with the ECB’s target and reducing immediate pressure for further easing. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.3% annually in July as forecasted.
Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2025 was revised upward to reflect 0.6% expansion, up from 0.3% previously, beating the 0.4% consensus. The upward revision highlights resilience amid global trade headwinds.
GBP/USD was bullish last week, rising from 1.326 to 1.344 as the dollar declined. If the GBP/USD rate goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.368, while support may be found near 1.313.
The Bank of England (BOE) lowered its base rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% on Thursday, but the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was deeply divided. The central bank narrowly passed the decision in a tight 5-4 vote after two rounds—a historic first for the MPC, with four members voting in favor of keeping rates steady.
BOE Governor Bailey warned against cutting rates too soon, urging patience moving forward. Bailey highlighted that inflation and wage pressures are easing but warned that uncertainty remains, especially with rising food and energy costs affecting consumer expectations. He indicated a downward trend for rates but cautioned against moving too quickly, dismissing recession fears as a reason for the cut. Despite Bailey’s cautious tone, the Sterling remained bullish as markets interpreted the rate cut and Bailey’s comments as a sign of the BOE’s commitment to supporting economic growth.
Headline CPI rose to 3.6% year-on-year in June, up from 3.4% in May and beating expectations of 3.4%. Every month, CPI increased by 0.3% in June, up from May’s 0.2%, and in line with forecasts. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 3.7% YoY, above May’s 3.5% and above expectations around 3.5%.
GDP data showed that the British economy contracted by 0.1% in May, following a 0.3% decline in April, against expectations of 0.1% growth. This marked the second consecutive month of economic contraction, raising concerns about the UK's economic resilience.
This coming week, UK GDP data are due on Thursday and are likely to affect the Sterling. UK GDP data for June are expected to reveal modest growth, with projections indicating a 0.2% increase. This release will provide insight into the resilience of the UK economy amid ongoing global uncertainties and could influence expectations for future Bank of England policy actions.
USD/JPY traded sideways last week, oscillating around the 147.5 level. If the USD/JPY pair declines, it may find support at 143.4. If the pair climbs, it may find resistance at 150.9.
The BOJ left rates unchanged at its July meeting, as expected, and signaled it’s in no hurry to tighten further. The BOJ raised its inflation forecast, hinting at a tightening path ahead, although the timing of future rate hikes has yet to be determined.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledged that price pressures are gradually firming and suggested that another rate hike remains on the table. Ueda, however, pointed to uncertainty around wage growth and domestic consumption and stressed the importance of sustained evidence that inflation remains on target before hiking rates further.
On Friday, the BOJ released the Summary of Opinions from its July meeting, showing a shift toward a more cautious but slightly hawkish tone. Board members discussed rising inflation risks and debated the timing of potential rate hikes. Some emphasized the need for patience, wanting to see how U.S. tariffs affect the economy over the next few months. Others warned that delaying too long could force faster, more disruptive hikes later. Overall, the BOJ acknowledged stronger inflation pressures and growing upside risks to prices, increasing market expectations for a possible rate hike before the end of the year.
Cooling inflation in Japan has reduced BOJ rate hike expectations, weakening the Yen and pressuring bond yields. Tokyo core CPI came in at 2.9% year-on-year in July from 3.1% year-on-year in June, suggesting cooling price pressures. Headline inflation dipped to 3.3% year-on-year in June from 3.5% in May. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, cooled to 3.3% from 3.7% in May.
Japan's economy remained stagnant in the first quarter of 2025, exceeding the anticipated 0.2% decline. On an annualized basis, GDP shrank by 0.2%, compared to -0.7% in the previous reading. The BOJ may delay interest rate hikes further to support the country’s weakening economy, especially if trade tensions rise.
Gold prices edged higher last week, rising to $3,400 per ounce. If gold prices rise, they may encounter resistance at $3,440 per ounce, while if gold prices decline, support may be encountered near $3,268 per ounce.
U.S. tariff concerns put pressure on the dollar last week, lifting gold prices to a two-week high.
Higher U.S. tariffs were enforced for countries that failed to reach a deal with the U.S. after the August 7 deadline—up to 50% on Brazil, 39% on Switzerland, and 35% on Canada. A 50% tariff on India is under consideration over its Russian oil ties. U.S. President Donald Trump has already announced that India's new base tariff rate will be 25%, which will rise to 50% by the end of the month as punishment for buying Russian oil. Meanwhile, India has postponed buying American weapons and aircraft in retaliation for the heavy tariffs. The U.S. is similarly threatening China with 50% tariffs over buying Russian oil, but the negotiations between the two countries continue. This coming week, trading developments are likely to cause volatility in gold prices.
At the same time, disappointing U.S. jobs data put pressure on the dollar, boosting gold prices. Unemployment claims went up to 226K for the week ending August 1, up from 219K the week before and exceeding market estimates of 221K.
Gold prices have typically been directed by the dollar’s movement, as the competing dollar typically loses appeal as an investment when the dollar rises. The dollar edged lower last week, and the dollar index dropped from 98.9 to 98.2. U.S. treasury yields, on the other hand, edged lower, providing support for the dollar, with the 10-year bond yield rising from 4.20% to 4.39%.
Gold prices are supported by rising Fed rate cut expectations. The Fed held rates steady at its policy meeting in July, as expected, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference, boosting the dollar.
Powell’s cautious stance prompted a pullback in dovish bets. Rate cut odds in September, however, shot up to approximately 90% last week after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, to temporarily fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors left by the resignation of Governor Adriana Kugler. Miran’s nomination was widely interpreted as a move by the U.S. President to undermine the Fed’s independence and to further his agenda. Trump has been pushing toward a more accommodative stance, and dovish bets rose after Miran’s nomination, boosting gold prices.
Oil prices were volatile last week, and WTI price rose to $67.7 mid-week, then plummeted to $63.8 per barrel. If WTI price retreats, it may encounter support near $60.0 per barrel, while resistance may be found near $71.3 per barrel.
Oil prices gained strength early last week on supply concerns, but plummeted later in the week, on comments from U.S. President Trump indicating progress in U.S.–Russia diplomatic talks. Trump’s statement raised the possibility of delayed or softened sanctions, dampening supply concerns and increasing downside pressure. Oil prices are expected to remain volatile this coming week ahead of the U.S.-Russia summit on August 15. Trump and Putin are set to meet on Friday to discuss the future of the Russia-Ukraine war. In case a peace deal is brokered, oil prices are expected to sink further as supply concerns cool. If, however, the negotiations fall through, oil prices may rally.
The U.S. announced tougher tariffs last week on several countries that failed to reach an agreement after the August 7 deadline expired. The U.S. imposed aggressive new tariffs today—up to 50% on Brazil, 39% on Switzerland, and 35% on Canada. A 50% tariff on India is under consideration over its Russian oil ties. U.S. President Donald Trump has already announced that India's new base tariff rate will be 25%, which will rise to 50% by the end of the month as punishment for buying Russian oil. Meanwhile, India has postponed buying American weapons and aircraft in retaliation for the heavy tariffs. The U.S. is similarly threatening China with 50% tariffs over buying Russian oil, but the negotiations between the two countries continue. This coming week, trading developments between the U.S. and countries that continue buying Russian oil are likely to cause volatility in oil prices.
Last week, oil prices were affected by a sharper-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude oil stocks. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced a drop of about 3.0M barrels for the week to July 31, against expectations of a 0.2M barrel rise, and accompanied by rising exports. The larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories gave oil prices a boost as it signaled stronger demand and tighter supply than the market had priced in. The rally faded quickly, though, as markets focused on easing geopolitical tensions.
Oil prices are kept in check by high central bank interest rates. The Fed held rates steady at its policy meeting in July, as expected, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference, boosting the dollar.
Rate cut odds in September shot up to approximately 90% last week after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, to temporarily fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors left by the resignation of Governor Adriana Kugler. Miran’s nomination was widely interpreted as a move by the U.S. President to undermine the Fed’s independence and to further his agenda. Trump has been pushing toward a more accommodative stance, and dovish bets rose after Miran’s nomination.
OPEC+ has raised its oil production for August by 548,000 bpd, well above the prior 411,000 bpd. This supply boost signals the cartel’s intent to allow oil prices to ease amid growing concerns over weakening global demand and trade uncertainties.
Bitcoin turned bullish last week, rising from below $112,000 early in the week to above $119,000 over the weekend. If BTC price declines, support can be found at $111,170, while resistance may be encountered at $120,850.
Ethereum gained strength last week, rising to $4,320 for the first time since December 2021 and flirting with its all-time high of $4,847 reached at the time. If the Ethereum price declines, it may encounter support near $3,150, while if it increases, it may encounter resistance near $4,500.
Bitcoin price reached an all-time high above $123K in July but immediately deflated on profit-taking. Bitcoin gained strength last week, but gains were capped as U.S. rate cut uncertainty and tariff worries weighed on risk appetite.
On the upside, a U.S. regulatory move allowing 401(k) retirement plans to include Bitcoin directly boosted crypto markets. U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to this effect, which was interpreted by markets as a step toward making Bitcoin more mainstream, spurring inflows from asset managers and boosting sentiment.
Ethereum also surged last week, rising to multi-year highs and approaching its all-time high, driven by positive risk sentiment and strong ETF inflows.
Crypto markets rallied last week as geopolitical tensions eased, raising risk sentiment. The US imposed aggressive new tariffs—up to 50% on Brazil, 39% on Switzerland, and 35% on Canada, while a 50% tariff on India is under consideration over its Russian oil ties. This has rattled traditional markets, while Bitcoin is gaining as a geopolitical hedge.
Trump also announced a 100% tariff on imported chips, excluding U.S. giants like Apple, boosting big tech and risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut rates to 4%, signaling a dovish shift echoed by global central banks.
Cryptocurrency prices are also affected by central banks’ interest rates. The Fed held rates steady at its policy meeting in July, as expected, but Fed Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone in his press conference, boosting the dollar.
Rate cut odds in September shot up to approximately 90% last week after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, to temporarily fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors left by the resignation of Governor Adriana Kugler. Miran’s nomination was widely interpreted as a move by the U.S. President to undermine the Fed’s independence and to further his agenda. Trump has been pushing toward a more accommodative stance, and dovish bets rose after Miran’s nomination.
BTC/USD 1h Chart
ETH/USD 1h Chart
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